Confession. I don’t know how to read polls, and am often confounded when different people come to different conclusions about the same cross tabs (What ever they are.)
There is apiece of me that thinks we should all be out door knocking rather then peering a polls, but if somebody can translate for me it would be great. Or tell me it’s worthless.
Here is the site to down load the press release and the poll itself
The Western New England University Polling Institute survey consists of telephone interview swith 582 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialingApril 11 -18, 2013. The sample yielded 528 adults who said they are registered to vote inMassachusetts. Within the sample of registered voters, 480 voters were classified as likely to votein the June 25 special Senate election, 270 voters were identified as likely to vote in the SenateDemocratic Primary on April 30 and 128 adults were identified as likely to vote in the SenateRepublican Primary on April 30. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based onthe statewide sample of likely voters for the June 25 election and the April 30 primaries
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Please share widely!
a few days ago. It is an odd poll. It does not screen for likely primary voters at the outset. WNEU takes 582 people and asks them which primary they’re planning to vote in. If they say Dem, they’re asked who they’re voting for in that primary. Likewise for GOP. In this case, only 270 people were polled for the Democratic primary, and 128 for the Republican. Those sample sizes are too small, particularly the Republican sample. And not all will vote; people are more likely to say they’ll vote in X or Y primary if asked which one they’ll vote in.
The reason they do it this way, instead of separate polls for the Dems and the GOP, is so they can ask about the general election with the same sample. The better (but more expensive) way would be to do three separate polls.
I’d like to see some other polling (PPP, where art thou?) because WNEU (MassInc.) has had Lynch higher than anyone else and more undecided voters than anyone else.
Nonetheless, to the doors and phones! I don’t want to wake up May 1 with Steve Lynch as Democratic nominee.
pretty much crap. There were major issues with the sampling as well as the questions.
has another poll, an internal leaked by Lynch’s campaign. No clue on methodology but it’s 1700+ respondents, usually a sign of a robo-poll (an exception to the general rule that more respondents is better). This one has Markey at 44.5, Lynch at 38.9, 16.5 undecided. So closer, but Lynch still trailing. And Markey does a tad better on fav/unfav.
Markey up big (+21) among registered Dems, Lynch up big (+17) among unenrolleds. Markey up 14 among women.
Markey’s campaign says leaking this poll shows Lynch’s desperation, as do the, ahem, misrepresentations of Markey’s record on terrorism. But as Bernstein notes,
actually have quite a good track record. Several highly reputable pollsters – including PPP – use IVR technology. It’s not only a lot faster and cheaper, it also eliminates interviewer bias.
I know nothing about the Lynch poll you mention; I’m just saying that there’s no general rule that live interviewers are superior to robo-pollsters, AFAIK.
I got from David Bernstein this morning. Wrong link I guess.
when they “leak” a poll that shows they are doing better.
And they’re losing even in the leaked poll.
Only one poll that counts, though.
To nominate a Republican in the Democratic primary and a Democrat in the Republican primary.
Lieberman and Weicker come to mind.