I’d take this with a grain or two of salt, given UNH’s track record in recent elections. Nonetheless, it’s hard to be disappointed in the Globe’s new poll showing Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez 54-41. The whole poll is available at this link.
The poll shows very few undecided voters – only 4%. It also shows Gomez leading among unenrolled voters by only 9% – far short of what he needs to have any kind of a shot at winning.
It seems clear that there is going to be no late-breaking surprise surge in this race the way there was in 2010. If Gomez pulls out a win, it will be because he and his supporters dramatically outwork Team Markey between now and June 25.
So, your job is to be sure that doesn’t happen. 🙂
jconway says
I say it’s important to use the odd polling as motivation to rally the troops, it could still be close, and the worst thing anyone can do is stick this one out. My somewhat apolitical siblings and their spouses are turned off by all the negative ads, they are definitely not voting for Gomez, but they might not come out for Ed either. I sent them all emails explaining what’s at stake and reminding them that the 10-15 minutes it will take will be worth it if we want to advance the President’s agenda. That got them to commit to it.
Not everyone can donate time or money, but little things, like reminding people on social media and using those contacts to reach other people, is incredibly important and will be powerful.
Anecdotally, it seems that Gomez’s outreach to Hispanics hasn’t made a huge dent. East Cambridge and East Somerville based friends with connections to that community are reporting its lean Ed or stay home, not enough positive awareness for Gomez and John Cornyn and his ilk continue to torpedo the “R” brand for that demo. If you do encounter Hispanic voters on the fence, remind them that Obama is behind Markey and they are both fully behind immigration reform. Can’t say that about Gomez.
sabutai says
I’ve spoken to quite a few Lynch supporters who are ready to vote for Markey. I give Lynch and his team credit…they’ve closed ranks admirably.
oceandreams says
for those still remembering the late unpleasant surprise in 2010, it was the same timeframe before the Coakley-Brown special election that a PPP poll was released showing the race within margin of error, as we’re at now before the ’13 special.
From Public Policy Polling on January 9, 2010, 10 days before the Jan. 19 special election:
From UNH on June 16, 2013, 10 days before the June 26, 2013 special election:
This race a “tossup?” I don’t think so, Cook Political Report. Markey’s average lead in independent polls taken this month is now up to 9.7 points, more than double these polls’ margins of error.
Final, most critical step: Turn those “likely voters” into actual voters on June 26.
sabutai says
Well, let’s turn the likely Gomez voters into actual voters on the 26th.
Let’s get the Markey supporters to the polls the day before, however, so they can vote.
oceandreams says
Sorry. What happens when I’m glancing at the calendar to see the date of the last Tuesday in June, but my calendar is still on January 2010 because I was looking up the ’10 special election (the last Tuesday of that month was the 26th). The last Tuesday and special election date this time around is June 25.
fenway49 says
The poll contains much motivation for us to keep doing the GOTV work. In the data Markey’s lead is huge among people who have paid “little attention”, who are “somewhat excited” about the race. Those who DID NOT VOTE in January 2010 favor him 70-16. That’s a lot of potential (but only potential) Markey voters, but we have to make sure to turn as many of them out as possible. They might need a little nudging.
Otherwise, a lot of good stuff. Consistent with other recent polling. Markey holding registered Dems better than Coakley or even Warren, with a huge lead (26) among women and a close race among men. Leading in the the 128-495 belt, almost even in Central Mass. These are good trends.
fenway49 says
David’s statement is correct, but in reading this and other polls there’s something to watch for carefully. In this poll formal unenrolleds are about 220 people. They also asked for self-identification, and so virtually every question is reported in terms of D-Indep.-R (self-identified) AND D-Unenr.-R (official registration status).
About an equal number of the unenrolled crowd splits off as self-identified Dems and self-identified Republicans (60ish to each party). Out of 220 unenrolled voters, you are left with about 75-77 people who self-identify as “independents.” On every single question, that group is significantly to the right of the larger registered unenrolled group. When reading the polls for how “independents” are breaking, we should be careful to distinguish between all unenrolled voters and those who insist of self-identifying as “independents.”
Al says
It seemed like a very straight forward, non partisan poll. The only thing I can’t speak for is the composition of the polling population. I’m 64, male, and a registered Democrat, plus I was called on my cell phone.
fenway49 says
their likely voter model brings Markey down. They talked to almost 800 people, but their percentages are based on 502 they identified as likely voters.
The big thing that jumps out is how few people in two Markey-friendly groups (18 to 34 and non-white voters) were included in the survey. The pollster must have determined members of those groups were not likely to vote. There’s some historical justification for that, but here it seems extreme (e.g. nonwhite voters are about 6% of the sample, whites over 90%). The final poll also has slightly more unenrolleds than I’ve seen in most special election polling (often assumed the less partisan are less likely to follow it, care, pick a candidate, show up to vote), but nothing too out of line.
oceandreams says
Poll: Markey Has 13-Point Lead Over Gomez – WBUR
Poll: Markey holds double digit lead over Gomez in Mass. race – The Hill
Poll: Markey expands his lead in Mass. Senate race – CNN
Markey holds solid lead over Gomez, poll says – Boston Globe
Ed Markey leads Gabriel Gomez by double digits in US Senate race, Boston Globe poll finds – MassLive.com
Polls show Gomez, Markey close in special election race for Mass. Senate seat – Fox News, June 15 (no new coverage of Globe poll that I could see)