Recently, I’ve noticed there has been a shift from talking about mitigation to adaptation to resilience when dealing with climate change. From my perspective, this is not a bad development as resilience focuses on practical preparedness for immediate hazards. This can partition change into small increments that are readily understandable and remove the polarized politics of climate change from the discussion. If you’re talking about measures to prevent system failure because of a weather emergency, it tends not to matter what your position is on greenhouse gases because everybody remembers the last hurricane, flood, or blizzard. In addition, resilience measures can also be adaptation and, even in some cases, mitigation strategies for climate change as well. At least, this is what I’m observing here in the Boston area and what I’ve heard out of post-Sandy New York and other areas.
This week I attended a discussion at the Boston Society of Architects about a new report, Building Resilience in Boston (PDF). Before the meeting, I spent some time scanning the document and found it to be superlative work, a great introduction to the concepts of urban design for resilience and emergency preparedness and, most especially, a fine literature search of the state of the art all around the world. If you want to begin the process in your own city or town, this document will give you plenty of useful ideas and show you where to get more. It is useful not only for cities like Boston, London, and New York but also towns like Chula Vista, CA and Keene, NH.
Another indication of growing seriousness on these issues I noticed is that the dangers from temperature extremes are entering the picture, especially since there has been a 2,300% increase in casualties from heat waves and 189% increase from cold snaps in the 2001 to 2010 decade (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/16/1224282/-World-Meteorological-Organization-Heatwave-Decade).
According to Christina Figueres of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, whom I also saw this week, there are over 300 cities around the world which are actively working on mitigation, adaptation, and resilience in the face of climate change. So while international organizations are struggling to find actionable agreements and individual countries are fighting to avoid responsibility, municipalities around the world are taking practical steps.
More on Boston (note that almost all the following reports are in pdf form):
Boston Harbor Association (2013). Preparing for the Rising Tide. Boston, MA.
http://www.tbha.org/preparing-rising-tide-report
City of Boston (2011). Climate Adaptation Plan: A Climate of Progress Update 2011. Boston, MA.
http://www.cityofboston.gov/images_documents/A%20Climate%20of%20Progress%20-%20CAP%20Update%202011_tcm3-25020.pdf
Boston Hazard Mitigation Report
http://www.cityofboston.gov/images_documents/Boston%20Hazard%20Mitigation%20Plan%202013%20Update%20-%20Revised%20Draft%2008%2014%2013_tcm3-40099.pdf
Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) (2011). Massachusetts Climate Change Adaptation Report. Boston, MA
http://www.mass.gov/eea/docs/eea/energy/cca/eea-climate-adaptation-report.pdf
Other Cities:
PlaNYC Report, A Stronger More Resilient New York
http://www.nyc.gov/html/sirr/downloads/pdf/final_report/001SIRR_cover_for_DoITT.pdf
“…details the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the City, and evaluates the potential for future damage given climate change impacts. It then details the opportunities for improvement to the citywide infrastructure and built environment, specifical- ly coastal protection, buildings, and critical services (including utilities, energy, telecommunications, transportation, water and wastewater) as well as healthcare, insurance, and natural environments such as parks. The final section of the report describes the community rebuilding and resilience plans for different neighborhoods in the city.”
Toronto climate adaptation report, Ahead of the Storm: Preparing Toronto for Climate Change (2008)
http://www.toronto.ca/teo/pdf/ahead_of_the_storm.pdf
Rising to the Challenge: The City of London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. City of London Corporation, London, England.
http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/services/environment-and-planning/sustainability/Documents/pdfs/SUS_AdaptationStrategyfinal_2010update.pdf
City of London developed its adaptation plan in 2007 and updated it in 2010
“Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Risk in Port Cities: A Case Study on Copenhagen,” Climatic Change 104:113-137. Hallegatte, S. et al. (2011).
You can access this report by searching on the title of this report at
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org
“The study calculates the economic cost of storm surges under different scenarios relative to insured assets, population den- sity, and industrial assets. It provides estimates for direct losses as well as losses associated with reduced economic activity, replacement costs, and resources required for reconstruction instead of normal activities. It then provides cost-benefit curves for adaptation efforts.”
“Case Study: Keene, New Hampshire Leading on Climate Preparedness.” ICLEI (2010).
http://www.icleiusa.org/action-center/learn-from-others/ICLEI_case%20study_Keene_adaptation.pdf
“The case study describes Keene, NH’s adaptation planning, and concludes that the city’s inclusion of mitigation and adaptation planning into the comprehensive plan demonstrates institutionalization of climate protection into governance systems. It also describes some of the recent ordinances (such as hillside protection and surface water protection).”
Climate Adaption Strategies – Implementation Plans. City of Chula Vista. 2011
http://www.chulavistaca.gov/clean/conservation/Climate/documents/ClimateAdaptationStrategiesPlans_FINAL_000.pdf
General Principles on Resilient Design and Actions:
Wilson, A. (2013). “RDI’s Resilient Design Principles.” Resilient Design Institute, Brattleboro, VT.
http://www.resilientdesign.org/rdis-resilient-design-principles-need-your-feedback/
Disaster Resilience: A Guide to the Literature. NIST SP-117. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD. Gilbert, S.W. (2010).
http://www.nist.gov/manuscript-publication-search.cfm?pub_id=906887
“This report provides a description of the state of knowledge on disaster resilience and provides an extensive annotated bibliography. The approach includes individual constructed facilities as well as larger social and community systems.”
Literature Review of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies. Institut National de Sante Publique, Quebec, Canada. Giguere, M. (2009).
http://www.inspq.qc.ca/pdf/publications/1513_UrbanHeatIslandMitigationStrategies.pdf
“The Quebec Department of Health and Human Services addresses six areas for action to target urban heat island effects, including monitoring systems for real-time urban heat and related health impacts, spread of infectious diseases, and physical and psychosocial effects of extreme heat, and to support local healthcare organizations, preventive management, and training activities.”
Adaptation Tool Kit: Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Land Use. Georgetown Climate Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. Grannis, J. (2011). http://www.georgetownclimate.org/sites/default/files/Adaptation_Tool_Kit_SLR.pdf
“The tool kit provides tools and examples of each tool applied for sea level rise planning. The report lists advantages and disadvantages of each tool: land use, setbacks/buffers, conditional development and exactions, rebuilding restrictions, sub- divisions and cluster development, permitting for property armoring, rolling coastal management/easement statues, capital improvements, acquisitions and buyout programs, conservation easements, tax and other development incentives, transfer- able development credits, and real estate disclosures. The report describes evaluation and governance criteria for each tool. The report also separates the strategies into four categories: protect, retreat, accommodate, and preserve.”
The State of Adaptation in the United States: An Overview. Report for the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, New York City, NY. Hansen, L. et al. (2013). http://www.georgetownclimate.org/sites/default/files/The%20State%20of%20Adaptation%20in%20the%20United%20States.pdf
“This report analyzes the state of adaptation activities in the U.S., specifically focusing on agriculture, the built environment, human health, and natural resources management. The report generally concludes that there is a plethora of activities re- lated to climate change impacts assessment, and, to a somewhat lesser degree on vulnerability assessment, resources/tools, and planning, but there is a shortage of work in capacity building and implementation and essentially no activity in monitoring and evaluation of implemented projects.”
Green Building and Climate Resilience: Understanding Impacts and Preparing for Changing Conditions. University of Michigan and U.S. Green Building Council, Ann Arbor, MI. Larson, L. et al. (2011).
http://www.usgbc.org/Docs/Archive/General/Docs18496.pdf
“The report describes the probable impacts from climate change at the global, regional and local scales, and discusses specifically the impacts on buildings. Appendix C provides general strategies for climate change adaptation for multiple sectors, including buildings.”
Adapting to Urban Heat: A Tool Kit for Local Governments. Georgetown Climate Center, Georgtown University, Washington, DC. Hoverter, S. (2012). http://www.law.georgetown.edu/academics/academic-programs/clinical-programs/our-clinics/HIP/upload/Urban-Heat-Toolkit_RD2.pdf
“The report provides a tool for policymakers to consider several specific approaches to reduce urban heat island effects; spe- cifically, cool roofs, green roofs, cool pavements, and urban forestry options are considered for direct municipal actions and to provide incentives and education for citizens and businesses.”
Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Communities (2012). A Region Responds to a Changing Climate Regional Climate Action Plan.” Southeast Florida Regional Compact, Palm Beach, FL.
http://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/pdf/Regional%20Climate%20Action%20Plan%20FINAL%20ADA%20Compliant.pdf
“This report describes the collaborative effort among the counties in southeast Florida, and provides 110 action items to mitigate climate change impacts and adapt to climate change impacts.”
Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, U.S. Department of Defense (2013). Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications. US Department of Defense, Washington, DC.
http://www.serdp.org/Featured-Initiatives/Climate-Change-and-Impacts-of-Sea-Level-Rise
“The study analyzes the vulnerability of military coastal installations in the context of federal, state and local adaptation activities. It discusses the nature and extent of investments needed for improved resilience, and potential opportunities to work with local communities to improve resilience.”
Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies – Cool Pavements. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/pdf/CoolPavesCompendium.pdf
Building Resiliency Task Force Full Proposals. Urban Green Council. June 2013.
http://www.urbangreencouncil.org/servlet/servlet.FileDownload?file=015U0000001EyaR
“Mitigation Ideas: A Resource for Reducing Risk to Natural Hazards.” Federal Emergency Management Agency Risk Analysis Division. Jan 2013.
http://www.fema.gov/plan-prepare-mitigate
Weathering the Storm: Building Business Resilience to Climate Change. Center for Climate Change and Energy Solutions, Washington, DC. Crawford, M. and S. Seidel. http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/business-resilience-report-07-2013-final.pdf
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA. Frumhoff, P. et al. (2007).
http://www.climatechoices.org/assets/documents/climatechoices/confronting-climate-change-in-the-u-s-northeast.pdf
“100 Resilient Cities Centennial Challenge.” Rockefeller Foundation (2013).
http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/our-work/current-work/100-resilient-cities
National Research Council (2012). Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative. National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
If one recognizes that addressing climate change is going to be off into the future, perhaps when it’s too late, then jumping in with mitigation efforts does seem like the right strategy.
However, surviving climate change is not just a matter of sea levels and extreme weather events — as serious as those are. (Even so, who is going to take care of Mumbai, Chennai, Seoul, Karachi, Jakarta, and Bangkok?)
Another factor will be the loss of rainfall and aquifers in interiors, the threat of infestations as predator-prey balances go out of whack, the threat of epidemics that accompany climate change, and the consequent failure of agricultural to keep up with world population.
It’s difficult to get a response on climate change — not just because everything is statistical with noisy data and the impossibility of attributing any one event to climate change. It is also difficult because once CO2 gets up into the atmosphere it takes a long time to get back out. As a planet, we could pass a number of dangerous thresholds before the evidence became sufficiently incontrovertible that even Senator Coburn would change his mind.
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Shorter version: complacency is very dangerous with climate change. Even hinting at the possibility of resilience gives complacency a hand.
Resilience planning is simple preparation for foreseeable emergencies and disasters. Right now, Boston and NY are planning for an end of the 21st century in which what is now a 100 year event will be happening close to once a year. That makes a real difference in how you build and where you build and what you build and all those changes will be direct responses to climate change changes. In some cases, those changes in the built environment will be actual mitigation. By necessity, those changes will be adaptations to climate change and increase resilience.
None of the people I’ve met who are writing these reports, studying these issues, and doing resilience work are complacent by any stretch of the imagination.
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Let’s Talk About Food Festival: Can New England Feed Itself? How Close Can We Get to Sustainability?
Thursday, October 3
6:00 pm – 8:00 pm
Forum, Trinity Church in the City of Boston, 206 Clarendon Street, Boston
RSVP at http://cannewenglandfeeditself-eorg.eventbrite.com
We talk about local and sustainable. Shop at the Farmers Markets and buy sustainable seafood. Yet today, much of our food still comes from other regions and countries. We often don’t know where it comes from and how it is grown.
What would it really take for New England to feed itself? Is it even possible? What would it mean for our eating habits, the landscape and the local economy? Can our farmland even keep up with the population?
On Thursday, October 3 at 6 pm, we’ll explore all of these questions at a Town Hall Forum at Trinity Church in Copley Square. This forum is part of the 2013 Let’s Talk About Food Festival, sponsored by the Massachusetts Department of Agriculture.
Distinguished list of speakers at the event include:
Chef and Wholesome Wave CEO Michel Nischan, a James Beard Award-winning chef, author and restaurateur who has become a catalyst for change in the sustainable food movement.
U.S. Representative Chellie Pingree (ME), a long-time advocate for local farms
Gregory Watson, Massachusetts Commissioner of Agriculture
Amanda Beal, director of the By Land and By Sea Project and a member of Food Solutions New England.
Brian Donohue, Associate Professor of American Environmental Studies at Brandeis University
Timothy Griffin, Associate Professor and Director of the Agriculture, Food and Environment Program of the Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy
Glynn Lloyd, Co-Founder of City Growers and CEO of City Fresh Foods
John Piotti, Executive Director of Maine Farmland Trust
This event is free but we ask people to register in advance at http://www.LetsTalkAboutFood.com
Of course, there’s another event happening at the same time on resilience:
The Transition Away from Fossil Fuels and Towards Resilience
Thursday, October 3, 2013
7:30 PM to 9:30 PM (EDT)
Tufts, Cabot Intercultural Center, ASEAN Auditorium, 170 Packard Avenue, Medford
RSVP at http://transition-tufts-eanrecfb101.eventbrite.com
Join us for a conversation with Rob Hopkins, founder of the international Transition Towns Movement, to learn how communities across the country and around the world are transforming their economic, energy, and food systems from the bottom up.
Following Rob’s talk we will hear from a panel of local community resilience leaders including Mayor Michael J McGlynn, City of Medford, MA, and Mayor Lisa A. Wong, City of Fitchburg, on strategies and opportunities for local resilience and sustainability.
Co-sponsored by Transition US, Post Carbon Institute, Tufts University’s Peace and Justice Studies, Institute for Policy Studies, and New Economic Institute.
Who is Rob Hopkins?
A British permaculture teacher, Rob launched the first Transition Initiative in Ireland in 2005. Since then, the Transition Movement has taken root in 43 countries, with 142 Transition Towns in the US and more than 1,000 around the world. Rob continues lending his energy, ideas, and voice to the Transition Movement as it grows and deepens around the world, in addition to working with his own community, Transition Totnes, to pioneer innovative Transition strategies and projects like REconomy and Transition Streets. Rob’s new book, The Power of Just Doing Stuff, launched in June and has received rave reviews.
Rob was the winner of the 2008 Schumacher Award, is an Ashoka Fellow and a Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, and was named by the Independent as one of the UK’s top 100 environmentalists.
In the words of Bill McKibben:
“In the leaking ship that we’ve made of our planet, the Transition movement is like a flotilla of life rafts. And they’ve come not to pull us off the earth, but to help us patch it and make it right. There’s no one on earth who’s just done more stuff–and inspired more doing – than Rob Hopkins.”
Rob doesn’t usually fly, but was asked to come to the US to speak with foundations about the power of local action to address the ecological and economic crises we face in light of passing 400 ppm… an invitation that’s hard to refuse given what is at stake.
I’ve already committed to the food discussion. Does somebody want to go to the resilience event and share notes?
Any more than Kansas should do it’s own medical research.
Sure, there’s energy required to transport food., However, the energy it takes to transport the food is typically a small percentage of the total fossil energy it took to grow that food.
The amount of natural gas in fertilizers and -cides is tremendous. Growing food in a place where less of those is necessary results in far less fossil fuel use (and emissions) than transporting the food. Same goes for hot-houses. Think it takes lots of fossil fuels to fly a tomato from California to Massachusetts? That’s nothing compared to the fossil fuel used to keep the greenhouse hot enough to grow the tomato locally.
I’m not suggesting that New England stop farming. On the contrary, we should continue to grow what our resources allow us to do well, be it cranberries, potatoes, or maple syrup. And, of course, reducing our consumption of meat would dramatically increase the sustainability of our diet. But this idea of [random-geographic-boundary] being self-sufficient for the sake of doing so is wrong-headed. Geographies, demographics, and cultures all excel at doing some things, and transportation fuel is tiny compared to the rest of the supply chain. Let’s do what we’re good at, and in that way use our resources as efficiently as possible.
P.S. This isn’t to suggest that we couldn’t make our transportation infrastructure more efficient, and lower carbon. We could, and we should. But the amount of fuel it takes to get a tomato to market [or an item on a container ship] is really, really small.
There are a lot of businesses that are starting up now because the Boston area and MA have supported local agriculture so consistently for the last 40 years or so. We’ve rebuilt the farmers’ market system that brings fresh food to many, many people throughout the Commonwealth.
The thought experiment of growing 100% of our food is enlightening and will expose quite a few opportunities to expand the agricultural sector throughout NE to the benefit of farmers and processors and the eating public. Self-sufficiency for self-sufficiency’s sake may not be useful but there are so many things we can do easily and profitably to improve our food security and quality of life.
are complacent. That will change as the GOP continues to become increasingly ridiculous and ends up as a rump party and Red States continue to face weather-related disasters.
Even if this weren’t to happen, business, which sets most of the agenda, is starting to get concerned. We may be too late to stop the sh!t from hitting the fan, but we’re slowly headed in the right direction.
are complacent. That will change as the GOP continues to become increasingly ridiculous and ends up as a rump party and Red States continue to face weather-related disasters.
Even if this weren’t to happen, business, which sets most of the agenda, is starting to get concerned. We may be too late to stop the sh!t from hitting the fan, but we’re slowly headed in the right direction.
The heavy smoker who consumes more than two packs a day MUST be encouraged to quit his or her habit. The same arguments used to sabotage climate change science were also used (in many cases by the same people and organizations) against research into the dangers of cigarettes. At the same time, we surely would not suggest that the smoker not see a doctor, nor (in my view) should we avoid treating the symptoms of tobacco-related diseases.
In my view, one of the more persuasive arguments against climate change deniers is the “risk-management” strategy: calculate the costs of of the impact, calculate the costs of managing the impact, and estimate the risk of the impact. Do the same with the costs of avoiding the impact. Do the same with the costs of doing nothing.
The only scenario in which an objective risk-management analysis leads to a do-nothing strategy is the scenario where the likelihood of anthropogenic climate change being real approaches zero. Only the most extreme climate change deniers — generally driven by religious fervor, such as Senator Inhofe — fall into that category.
The research described here is a necessary component of the cost aspects of any rigorous risk management strategy. One of the more effective ways to change entrenched policy is to demonstrate the exorbitant costs of that policy, in comparison to the proposed alternative.
We have to look beyond immediate politics and start trying to save what we can. You simply *have* to do mitigation and resilience — we have no choice at this point. I don’t think it necessarily leads to less urgency with regard to prevention. I think when you have a properly-concerned public (as we more-or-less have in MA), you can get all these things done.
I don’t think having airbags in cars makes it less likely that people will wear seat belts. In fact, it might make it more likely since people are reminded of the danger.
But it all comes down to necessity. We are going over those dangerous thresholds right now. We can be smart and plan for what’s coming, or stupid and do nothing.
Is planning ahead wise? Yes.
But the term resiliency suggests a level of control that we will increasingly lack if we do not act decisively to curb carbon and methane emissions now.