Future Looks Bright for Democrats: A look at the Hispanic/Latino Vote

Last week I wrote that the recent GOP fiasco that was the government shutdown and the near failure to raise the nation’s debt ceiling would, among other things, have two impacts on the Republican Party.  The first was the irreparable harm to the GOP brand which would likely result in the loss of House seats come next November.  Whether or not these losses will be enough for Nancy Pelosi to reassume her Speakership (Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats) remains to be seen, and may well be determined by House GOP action (or inaction) this coming winter, when Congress will again be required to raise the debt ceiling.  The second impact I wrote about, was that despite being overwhelmingly blamed for the very unpopular government shutdown, the Tea Party looks to actually expand its influence within the Republican Party.  In brief, this is due to the fact that voter turnout in the 2014 Republican Primaries will likely be small and overwhelmingly dominated by Tea Party supporters.  Already, dozens of staunchly conservative Republican incumbents are being primaried by well financed Tea Party challengers (Mike Simpson ID-2 is a prime example).  Thus, while Republicans may ultimately lose congressional seats in 2014, the number of Tea Partiers within the GOP caucus looks to grow.

Admittedly, it will a tall order for Democrats to win back the House in 2014, and indeed, they may not succeed in this endeavor until after the 2020 census and the redistricting that follows (which may extend the GOP’s House majority until 2022).  That said, ultimately America’s changing Demography looks quite promising for the Democrats.  In particular, two crucial blocs of voters look to define American politics in the near future:  Hispanics/Latinos and Millennials.  And Republicans, among both groups, are getting trounced.  Let us have look at Hispanic/Latino voter today (we will examining Millennials next week).

According the 2010 U.S. Census, the overall American population stood at 308,748,538 individuals.  Of this population, some 16.3%, or 50,477,594 Americans were of Hispanic/Latino ancestry.  And of the 27,323,632 additional individuals who came to call the United States home from 2000 to 2010, some 15,171,776 were of Hispanic/Latino origins.  Put another way, during the last decade, roughly 3 out of every 5 new Americans were Hispanic/Latino.  From an electoral perspective, this development is important as historically, Hispanic/Latino voters have voted significantly in-favor of Democrats:

Indeed, since 1980, the closest any Republican presidential candidate has gotten to besting their Democratic rival was in 2004 (and even then George W. Bush loss this bloc by 18%).  Yet as telling as these figures are, they remain national figures, and thus do not adequately reflect recent developments in various states (and in particular, several key electoral states where the growth of the Hispanic/Latino population has far outpaced the national average).  When for instance we look at these states individually, we see a more dramatic picture.  For instance, in states crucial to GOP presidential success, only once in the past three presidential elections (Florida 2004) has the Republican nominee for president actually captured a majority of the Hispanic/Latino vote.  Here’s how these state votes have broken down:

* Note that some states with large Hispanic/Latino populations (such as California) have not been included in this chart as these states do not figure prominently into Republican presidential electoral strategies, or are otherwise not generally seen as truly competitive (both California and New Mexico).  Conversely, other states (such as Texas and Arizona) have been included as not only is the Hispanic/Latino population large and growing in these states, but these states are also vital for the GOP if they are to remain competitive in future presidential elections.

And within these states, the overall share of the eligible voting population that is Hispanic/Latino currently stands at/and is expected to trend as such:

* Data courtesy of the Center for American Progress.  To view the full report click here.

Should these trends continue (and there is good reason to believe they will, particularly in light of the GOPs growing opposition to  immigration reform and support for voter ID laws) Republicans may well find themselves ‘behind the eight-ball’ in crucial swing-states such as Florida, Colorado, and Nevada (states which Bush won in 2000 and 2004, but which subsequently flipped to Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 general election); while in states which Republicans absolutely cannot afford to lose, states such as Arizona and Texas, (which together account for 49 electoral votes, or roughly one quarter of Romney/Ryan’s electoral total), Republicans seem to be living on borrowed time, as evident by the fact that in these states, the GOP share of the Hispanic/Latino vote continues to slide, while the overall Hispanic/Latino population is rapidly reaching parity with the Republicans traditional white voter base.

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