WBUR and MassINC have released their latest poll on the Boston mayor’s race, and it shows that John Connolly’s lead in other recent polls has all but evaporated. In most of the poll’s critical measurements, the candidates are virtually tied. (Topline is here; crosstabs are here.)
The initial horserace numbers in this poll show Connolly ahead 35-34, with 28% undecided. When the undecideds are asked which way they are leaning, the numbers become 41-39 for Connolly, with 17% still on the fence. The margin of error in this poll was 4.4%, which brings all the horserace results well within the margin of error.
The candidates’ fav/unfav ratings are nearly identical as well (both polled very well): for Connolly, 60/17; for Walsh, 61/18.
MassINC notes that these results suggest that the race seems to be trending toward Walsh.
Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, said the survey suggests momentum for Walsh, who has trailed by ever-smaller margins in a series of polls in recent weeks.
But the race, he emphasized, is wide open. ”It’s essentially a toss-up,” Koczela said.
And here is an interesting point regarding the recent flurry of Walsh endorsements:
neither candidate, it seems, has built a distinct advantage in the the mostly black and Latino precincts at the center of the city that went for minority candidates in the preliminary election.
Connolly has a 42-34 edge among black voters, according to the WBUR survey. But add in other non-white voters and the candidates are virtually tied.
The deadlock suggests Walsh has not yet gleaned a significant advantage, in minority communities, from the endorsement of the top three black and Latino vote-getters in the preliminary election — former state Rep. Charlotte Golar Richie, City Councilor-At-Large Felix Arroyo and former nonprofit executive John Barros.
Still, the endorsements may be having some impact on the broader electorate.
One in four voters say an endorsement by a former mayoral hopeful who is black or Latino would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. And those voters favor Walsh by a 45-35 margin.
The question with these endorsements, of course, is the extent to which they translate to people showing up on election day. That, in turn, depends on the effectiveness of the political operations wielded by the endorsers, and the extent to which they choose to deploy them. I’m not sure that sort of thing is likely to show up in a poll; whether it shows up on election day remains to be seen.
Given that this race is basically a tie, what should the candidates do for the next two weeks? The politician/community group endorsements game is pretty much over at this point, and everyone agrees that Walsh won. The newspapers have yet to weigh in, but everyone knows where they will go. Here’s the suggestion of WGBH’s Peter Kadzis, writing after last night’s debate but before this most recent poll was released:
My bottom line may appear eccentric, but here it is: This debate was not about Walsh. It was about Connolly. Connolly showed that he had the wit to stay in the game. But he has to muscle up. If I were his political adviser, I’d tell him to take the money Stand for Children has offered. My gut tells me that the only way to beat Walsh’s organization is with a highly motivating ad campaign. That, I believe, is the hallmark of Stand for Children. This race is tighter than anyone realizes.
I’d simply add that, with this poll, a lot more people realize how close the race is.
With two polls showing a close race this election comes down to GOTV.
Canvas and ID for the next two weeks. Knock and pull on E-Day. Organization not TV ads, not mailers, not endorsements. Good old grassroots, old school political operations.
The meat and potato staples of campaigns.
But the endorsements (in some cases) are tied to GOTV where endorsers like Forry, Barros, et al are hitting the pavement and knocking doors.
Active endorsements are far better than paper endorsements
I don’t live in Boston any longer (OFD) but like most people here, follow politics about as closely as I do sports. I would vote for Walsh if I could, but thought he came across in last night’s debate as dour, stern and more than a little thuggish. The man (or woman) with a brightness in their face will always beat the downer. I’m not saying he has to adopt a phony made-for-TV smile – because that would be more damaging than helpful – but he needs to show the voters some light. Show us you have a sunny outlook, that you can metaphorically see where you want the city to go. Connolly has what some people think is a smirk, but to me it’s by far a more compelling visage of the next mayor. Relax, Mr. Walsh, lean back and show us, not tell us, that you have an idea of where you want to lead.
Walsh did look uncomfortable in the debate and did make a few missteps . He looked bad when Connolly pointed out that he had lobbied for the corporate tax breaks that he was criticizing Connolly for voting for. He looked really uncomfortable when Connolly brought up the fact that he was working for the unions at the same time as serving as a legislator. (To be fair, Connolly also looked a bit uncomfortable when asked about his work as a lawyer). And he drew a blank when asked the softball question about how Menino had used the “bully pulpit”. However, I really don’t think there was anything “thugish” about the way he acted.
I heard he had not appeared at an earlier event that day because he was not feeling well, so perhaps he was just under the weather.
It is a bit unfortunate that both candidates pretty much agreed on everything in the second half of the debate. Most of their clashes came over campaign tactics and real or perceived conflicts of interest.
While it’s true that in a municipal race or something on a similar local scale, *some* endorsements show their value primarily through turnout operations working for the endorser, in general the main value of endorsements is *message*. Even in a local race, many endorsements work primarily as message enhancers.
People *claim* they’re not persuaded one way or the other by endorsements. Few people will say they went to vote for a candidate because of an endorsement. People are deluded, though. Most of us really have little clue how or why we make the decisions we make, and this is a great example.
People support candidates, and vote for them, in large part because of their perception of what the candidate represents and what voting for that candidate represents. Candidates, as you know, work hard to build up a message that gives people a reason to vote for them, and contrasts themselves with their opponents. Candidates want to give peope a thematic, coherent reason to vote for them. That’s their message.
You can see a good illustration of how this works in,
However, that’s one of the exceptions where people are actually showing some direct awareness. Mostly, people aren’t directly aware of what exactly the ingredients are that a candidate uses to construct a coherent message, even when people *are* aware of the message itself. But endorsements are often a significant piece of the construction of that message.
Canary Square and WokNTalk are two of the businesses that endorse Connolly. Walsh has a Centre Street, Jamaica Plain campaign office. I am glad to see small businesses actively post signs for a Democrat rather than wave the yellow Tea Party flag, which I had seen other businesses do, such as in Nantucket. I think that both candidates should mail in their faces alongside that of Senator Elizabeth A. Warren, and three times each, at that. I have only not done so for my own interests, because I have no money myself to mount a direct mail campaign.
I hope that Walsh and Connolly’s election draws in more Bostonians than tonight’s World Series Opener. Our Fenway Park neighborhood just had so much space during and after the game. Not all area restaurants were packed. Driving around was doable. During and after our game, MBTA buses had so many empty seats. It was too easy for me to grab a cab. At least the driver did not illegally jack up the fare. Too many Hubway bicycles were left unused.
On Walsh-Connolly election day I pray that WokNTalk runs out of chicken fingers, and that City Feed sells out whatever little chilled meat it sells.
Globe has Connolly up 8. Walsh outperforms the polls, so Connolly’s going to need a lead going into election day if he expects to win. I wonder if Connolly’s strong debate performances are cutting into what looked like some momentum for Walsh.