Well, the polling is just all over the place in this race. In the last couple of days, both campaigns have made public their internal polling, and both have said that the race is deadlocked. That’s consistent with a WBUR/MassINC poll taken Oct. 19-20 showing Connolly up 2. But it’s not consistent with the Globe’s poll, taken Oct. 17-22, that showed Connolly up 8. Nor is it consistent with a poll by UMass-Amherst, taken Oct. 22-26 and released today, showing Marty Walsh up 7. So, if you believe both the Globe and UMass, the race has swung to Walsh by 15 points in five days. That seems … unlikely.
There’s no way all of these polls are right, but it’s hard to hazard a guess as to who’s nailing it and who’s the outlier. If you think you know, though, do chime in on the prediction thread.
I’ve already endorsed Walsh (though I can’t vote for him). And I think he’s going to win, mostly because I think that, in general, his supporters are more likely to actually show up on election day than are Connolly’s. He outperformed the polls in the preliminary; I don’t see why he shouldn’t do so again in the final.
a Walsh lead over the past week has been the chatter. Globe outlier, if you take that out you’ll see the pattern.
This one is as much an outlier as the Globe poll was. It also has a large MOE. We believe this race is a dead heat, for what it’s worth!
Given his base of support and performance in the preliminary, Walsh is likely to outperform the polls. I haven’t a clue which polls are right, and don’t know how to reconcile the polls that you’re referring to, but I think Conolly needs a lead by several points in the polls (outside the MOE) if he has a hope of winning.
David, as a lawyer, how do you square your support for Walsh with his penchant for lawyer-bashing in last night’s debate? No doubt the attacks will resonate with some: the line “let’s kill all the lawyers” from Richard II comes to mind. But the character uttering that line was a villain. I detected an unpleasant whiff of anti-intellectualism in Walsh’s remarks.
Connolly attacked Walsh because of his union background. So, it’s not a surprise that Walsh would respond by attacking Connolly’s background as a corporate attorney.
I find it incredible that you would think that Walsh’s comment about lawyers is, somehow, “anti-intellectual” I’ve worked with many lawyers. Members of my family are lawyers. As a result, I feel confident saying: Lawyers are not necessarily intellectuals!
Besides, isn’t it time to stop this silly name-calling?
This kind of identity politics is inherently anti-intellectual, because it focuses on identity and stereotypes and totally ignores actual issues. It is not that lawyers are intellectuals, because the vast majority of them are not. It is that that going after someone just because he is a lawyer (or a union leader for that matter) is not appealing to anyone’s intellect.
I don’t think it is really true that Walsh only pulled the lawyer card in response to attacks. In any case, if your kids are calling each other names, do you really care who started it?
You have to remember the context in which Walsh made his comments. He was talking about the fact that the people who primarily benefit when the city and a union go to arbitration are the lawyers representing both sides in the arbitration proceeding. That is actually true, and those fees could be far better spent on other things by both the city and the union. I don’t think Walsh hates lawyers, any more than I think Connolly hates unions – even though if you take things both of them have said out of context, it would be easy to think that.
I suppose the repeated references to Connolly as a corporate lawyer are meant to be honorific. At least the Republicans admit they are down on lawyers when they vilify plaintiff’s lawyers in personal injury cases.
repeated references to Walsh as a Union Leader are meant to _______________?
While Connolly is stressing his public service. Injecting Connolly’s time at Ropes and Gray into the campaign was meant to stigmatize him as an elitist. That’ Sarah Palin style politics.
I see Walsh (and Connolly) running on a public service record.
Union leader is only a piece of that. His votes on equal marriage, death penalty, secure communities, CORI reform, gun control, welfare reform, and access to abortion clinics are anything but “union”. They are flat out progressive.
Attempts to inject Connolly at Ropes and Gray are playing into the fact that he spent 12 years as a lawyer, and a couple as a volunteer or part time teacher, yet Connolly’s website and literature don’t mention his legal career at all, and are covered in his accomplishments as an educator. “Stigma”? Only because clearly Connolly is so embarrassed by his actual career.
Was Barack Obama engaging in Sarah Palin style politics when he “injected” Mitt Romney’s career into the Presidential campaign?
Were Warren-allied Democrats engaging in Sarah Palin style politics when they “injected” Scott Brown’s law career partially spent helping banks foreclose on homeowners?
Beyond the hyperbole, your posts on this matter are also completely divorced from the reality of campaigning. People’s careers have always been fair game, including for Democrats.
The thin skin you’ve displayed over finally having something akin to fair treatment being given over John Connolly’s career speaks loudly, but I say let the light shine.
There’s been nothing here but the truth — and the voters get to decide whether they want the candidate who’s spent his career trying to improve the lives of ordinary people, or at the behest of Boston’s wealthiest and most powerful clientele.
You can complain all you want about the truth getting out, but you don’t make your candidate look all that great when you do it.
I agree that if either Walsh or Connolly or their supporters are genuinely offended by the relatively minor attacks launched by the other side, then they clearly have thin skin.
However, if some voters get turned off by this, there is no point in blaming them for not being sophisticated enough to know what attacks should simply be ignored. You can pretend all you want that negative campaigning, truthful or not, tends to put voters in a negative mood, but that would be ignoring reality.
Any possible negative tone by a Walsh supporter and your up in arms. Tudor’s sleazy tirades? I’ve heard nary a peep from you.
Your arguments on this election have been terribly inconsistent, but almost always sided in one direction. I wonder why?
said we don’t need more lawyers at City Hall. That’s lawyer-bashing and that’s what prompted my initial comments on Blue Mass Group. Now I see how mean-spirited some Walsh’s supporters really are and I am willing to take your verbal abuse to call you out on it.
I am a lawyer, and I even know how to read, and I really don’t like John Connolly. The question was about arbitration, and Walsh said going through that process is inefficient and costly for the city, but profitable for lawyers working on the cases. What’s wrong with that?
All of your comments today seem hurt that there’s anyone not for your guy. Oh, the poor despised Pioneer Institute, pity the poor hedge fund guys who, along with their candidate, are so maligned. While you bring up stupid things like the parade, which Walsh hasn’t marched in in years and has said he won’t march in as mayor so long as it discriminates. Connolly’s the one having rallies with Ed Flynn.
However, there have been many other occasions when Walsh supporters on this site have used “lawyer” as a dirty word. I don’t blame Walsh for that. But I think it is boneheaded.
I totally agree that the St Patrick’s day parade is a non-issue. Walsh clearly is great on LBGT issues and it is silly to suggest otherwise.
I am talking about attacks from either side causing voter disaffection. I thought I was pretty clear about that. Negative fliers from Walsh’s supporters turn off some voters. Negative poll questions (“push poll” or not) also turn off voters. I haven’t personally gotten such a call, but I would not react positively to it.
I am not sure which particular “sleazy tirade” you expect me to respond to but I would be happy to comment if you point me at one. I have not religiously been reading all the threads.
I don’t know why you are trying to insinuate that I am somehow some secrete Connolly supporter. I think I have been pretty clear in criticizing Connolly on several issues. And I have also said nice things about Walsh as well. I know it is intellectually easier for you to just put me in the “them” box, but it is just pure lazy on your part.
I think you are just sensing that the issues that are important to me aren’t exactly the same as yours . I am really not trying to push Connolly. I would just like to see the conversation to be more focused on the actual issues and less on identity politics and resume nitpicking.
And to be crystal clear about this, I am turned off by the attacks I have seen from both sides on this site.
one of these candidates in with the Republicans, it’s your guy.
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The bible on the subject is Richard Hofstadter’s Anti-Intellectualism in American Life. There’s a populist streak in the American character that is suspicious of clever folks with advanced degrees–and lawyers are highly visible exemplars of too much book-larnin’. But it goes back further. Shakespeare’s line about killing the lawyers reflects a class-based suspicion that lawyers’ cleverness makes them enemies of popular uprisings–like the one in England in 1381, portrayed in Richard II.
Please do not misunderstand me. I did not say lawyers are intellectuals–that would be an obvious over-generalization. It’s lawyer-bashing that suggests anti-intellectualism. Not the same thing.
My sense is that the Globe’s poll, done by UNH, is off, because UNH’s track record lately is not that good. David Bernstein asks, almost each time they’re off by a bunch, when the Globe will turn to another pollster. But I’m not sure Walsh is up 7 either. I’d expect a close election but feeling better about a Walsh win.
If Connolly can’t get “uncle-mo” to change his jersey back by Sunday Walsh is going to win. Somehow, someway, me thinks this might be slipping from Connolly’s grasp.