HT to alert BMGer doubleman for calling our attention to the fact that House Speaker Bob DeLeo has endorsed Peter Koutoujian for the fifth congressional district.
“I know how important it is for a district to have a strong, dedicated and intelligent representative always willing to do what is in the best interest of his or her constituents,” DeLeo said in a statement released by the Koutoujian campaign. “Peter will be that person for the Fifth Congressional District.”
Koutoujian, a Waltham resident, said in a statement he was proud to have DeLeo’s support.
On balance, this has to help Koutoujian. There will undoubtedly be some Democrats who say “any friend of Bob DeLeo is no friend of mine,” but with this expected to be a low turnout, get-your-base-out sort of affair next Tuesday, the backing of the Speaker, one of the state’s best-known legislators, who also happens to live in the district, has to be a plus.
I sorta think of Koutoujian as “Deval Patrick’s Man in the MA 5” race…I suppose at this point The Sheriff is the closest thing to a centrist available in the primary. Just funny how the Speaker swooped past four other members of the Lege to alightest on Peter K.
Elias N
Let’s leave aside DeLeo’s more conservative credentials and look at this endorsement on the merits:
“I know how important it is for a district to have a strong, dedicated and intelligent representative always willing to do what is in the best interest of his or her constituents,” said DeLeo.
That’s lackadaisical. Does he mean to say that the other four are not always willing to do what is in the best interest of their constituents?
Rather, it’s more about who’s friends with who in the organization.
If we make attention to MA-5 constituents the criterion, it is Brownsberger who has raised 82% of his campaign funds from within the district. All other candidates, including Koutoujian and Clark who raised most money, got a majority of their funds from outside MA-5.
Dollar for dollar, and in terms of count of people making donations, Brownsberger is the leader for in-district raised funds. That, to me, is a sign of attention paid to MA-5. It means that this is the candidate who likely had the most coffee meetings and the most one on one voter encounters in the district.
http://www.willbrownsbergerforcongress.com/forums/topic/where-our-money-is-coming-from
Or it’s a sign that he has represented one of the richest districts in the state for years and is receiving money mainly from high-dollar donors. Brownsberger has the easiest in-district well to tap. How much has he raised outside of his current legislative district?
Also, that 82% number is misleading because it only represents donations of $200+. Some of the other candidates, most notably Sciortino, have received many more small-dollar donations. The small v. big donor discussion could warrant its own discussion.
That said, based on the records of all the candidates, I think they will all be fantastic at constituent services, and I don’t think in-district donations are at all reflective of how much the candidates care for the district.
You should have stopped at your first point, which is likely correct. The other is a sideshow.
> How much has he raised outside of his current legislative district?
I have the Q3 numbers only. Yes Brownsberger raised more than half of his funds in his native Belmont. But look at the stats: the average donation from Belmont to Brownsberger was $223. The average donation from the same Belmont to Koutoujian was $888.
The same pattern goes pretty much in each other town: smaller donations to Brownsberger, but from more people. That goes against your assertion that he is hitting the richer donors. On the contrary, he is reaching much more many people but with small donations.
Lexington average donations:
Brownsberger $244
Clark $711
Koutoujian $770
Sciortino $292
Spilka 0
Cambridge average donations:
Brownsberger $133
Clark $667
Koutoujian $716
Sciortino $542
Spilka $680
Although I’ll grant you these numbers are skewed up for the other candidates, especially Sciortino, because they did not itemize all small contributions.
Those numbers aren’t useful without knowing the median and total number of contributions in those towns.
Here are some other numbers that I think demonstrate Brownsberger’s reliance on bigger donors.
Average size of itemized (>$200) contribution ALL:
Brownsberger: $1060.12
Clark: $888.18
Koutoujian: $979.50
Sciortino: $898.31
Spilka: $926.40
Average size of in-district itemized contribution:
Brownsberger: $830.47
Clark: $699.87
Koutoujian: $870.75
Sciortino: $627.27
Spilka: $644.64
Average size of in-state out-of-district itemized contribution:
Brownsberger: $1041.67
Clark: $855.77
Koutoujian: $880.41
Sciortino: $625.47
Spilka: $781.86
% of Total Contributions over $200:
Brownsberger: 79.3%
Clark: 90.6%
Koutoujian: 91.2%
Sciortino: 65.0%
Spilka: 79.0%
I think that shows that he is getting a significant portion of his funds from high-dollar donors, especially compared to Sciortino. Clark and Koutoujian also get a lot of high-dollar donors, especially Koutoujian, who I think may have had a significant portion of the MA Armenian community max out.
I don’t think his endorsement alone will mean much to most voters.
I think it means a good deal in the speaker’s district, which is in CD5
Winthrop and Revere, but that’s about it. No resources. My guess would be it’s worth maybe 8 points in Winthrop and Revere, not sure what that amounts to in terms of the overall district, 0.5% or something?