According to a series of recent polls, the latest Washington debacle over the debt ceiling and the accompanying government shutdown has badly damaged the Republican Party and its image. A NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken just last week found public favorability for the GOP standing at a mere 24 percent, while another Gallup poll showed public support for Republicans at record lows. Even several prominent Republicans have publicly admitted that the government shutdown and the debt ceiling debate has harmed the party’s image. Faring even worse in public opinion is the Tea Party. Their favorability stands a few notches below where the Republican Party polls as a whole. Yet despite these low approval ratings, or perhaps more accurately, as a result of them, the Tea Party may actually benefit from this recent showdown, even as it could cost Republicans seats nationally. Here’s how:
With their favorability cratering to all-time lows, and with the public displeased with the current state of politics in general, there is every reason to believe that voter turnout in the 2014 midterm elections will be low, particularly amongst Republicans. After all, with rare historical exceptions, primaries are usually low turnout affairs, especially midterm primaries. Those who do go to the polls, tend to be the more passionate bunch, who also typically gravitate towards the ideological fringe. For Republicans, that means Tea Party supporters.
Of course, merely having your supporters turnout to the polls means nothing, if who they are voting for are more centrist and reasonable candidates. As we know, however, such candidates are a dying breed within the Republican Party, and already, the Tea Party looks to run its largest slate of candidates yet. For instance, in Texas alone, some 16 of the state’s 22 incumbent Republican House members are already facing Tea Party challenges. And its much the same across the country. The extent to which Republican House incumbents are capable of surviving these challenges, depends greatly on voter turnout. Unfortunately for those incumbents, turnout in such elections has historically been low, and will likely remain so throughout the 2014 primaries.
In purple and blue trending states Tea Party candidates tend to get beat in final elections. So Tea Party types might grow in the deep red states but a y primary success in border states should lead to Democratic wins.
Remember that politics is not just running for state rep and state senator and US congress… there are many local positions that could be affected too.
To say this is activity coming from the “Tea Party” however is a bit of a misnomer. The reality is that there are christian conservative groups and “koch brothers” front groups looking to create controversy and mobilize people around various local “wedge issues”. The groups may claim to be indigenous grassroots efforts but they there is coordination.
As partisan as I can be, particularly in the face of the recalcitrant House Republicans, even I wasn’t expecting much damage due to this. But, they are now looking like they would be swept out in 14′, they have lost a once winnable race in VA, Booker’s candidacy imploded in controversy and was more poorly run than Martha Coakley’s and they lost that, and they will likely lose several governorships (OH, PA, MI, ME) in the 14′ cycle. McConnell could lose his seat, the race to the right might make a senator out of Ms. Nunn in Georgia, and Collins could very well get tea partied making that seat attainable. Landrieu and Pryor could enjoy tea party types wrecking their opponents too. Wendy Davis will get Elizabeth Warren levels of outside money making her far more competitive in TX, particularly as it’s right self immolates in a fratricidal primary.
And there are still a solid chunk of Republicans that feel they lost in 12 and they lost this shutdown by not being conservative enough in the face of ample evidence.
I honestly hope the Dems stay unified, and we can see some solid wins in 14′. Immigration reform, sensible gun legislation, and stimulus should be on the agenda, and Obama can get it before the next guy or gal takes their oath.
Could be another 64′. Christie is totally toxic amongst the right, Rubio is getting there, and Rand and Cruz are ascendant. Either of those clowns in either slot on the ticket and a Clinton on ours and we will see so many new states come into play (AR, LA, GA, SC, MO, and AZ). If the Houston Chronicle is to be believed, Cruz might make TX more winnable.
I don’t want to gloat because we’ve been down this road before (09 with a filibuster proof majority and a confessing liberal in the WH-didn’t totally work according to plan), but I am confident the American people reject this nonsense and the extremists that fund and spout it.
decade, particularly because American politics always offers a partisan choice, but we’re seeing the implosion of the GOP. For a long time, the Republican Party could use wingnuts to support its business interests, but the wingnuts are now jeopardizing the economy and business, and since the Democratic Party is at least half in the bag for business already, business doesn’t need the GOP as much as it did.
The Tea Party is the distillate of the wingnuts who are increasingly older, male, and most of all, white. Demographically, their days are numbered.