Last week did some analysis to get a sense of where the votes were in the 5th CD Primary and how they did compared to earlier this year in the Senate election. That post compared the CD5 turnout last week against the Democratic votes in the June 25, 2013 election for Ed Markey. I have now added the turnout in the Democratic Primary on April 30. A high percentage should correspond to either an unusually high turnout last week in CD5 or a low turnout in the 2013 primary. I think the second set of numbers is the more appropriate. Here we are comparing a primary to a primary. As expected, the highest numbers are in candidate hometowns. I don’t live in the district, but I’m curious as to people’s thoughts on this.
| – – Municipality – – | CD5 Turnout | 2013 Senate Dem GENERAL |
Percentage | 2013 Senate Dem PRIMARY |
Percentage |
| Belmont | 5461 | 4562 | 120% | 3923 | 139% |
| Ashland | 1257 | 1715 | 73% | 978 | 129% |
| Waltham | 5622 | 5563 | 101% | 4424 | 127% |
| Watertown | 4772 | 4965 | 96% | 4105 | 116% |
| Melrose | 3849 | 3930 | 98% | 3757 | 102% |
| Arlington | 7301 | 9632 | 76% | 8116 | 90% |
| Holliston | 1085 | 1736 | 63% | 1230 | 88% |
| Framingham | 4417 | 7078 | 62% | 5189 | 85% |
| Lincoln | 810 | 1386 | 58% | 964 | 84% |
| Winchester | 2086 | 3432 | 61% | 2533 | 82% |
| Lexington | 4153 | 6877 | 60% | 5117 | 81% |
| Natick | 2631 | 4666 | 56% | 3230 | 81% |
| Winthrop | 1442 | 1868 | 77% | 1857 | 78% |
| Wayland | 1188 | 2311 | 51% | 1521 | 78% |
| Sherborn | 394 | 692 | 57% | 512 | 77% |
| Malden | 3701 | 5888 | 63% | 4926 | 75% |
| Revere | 2526 | 3567 | 71% | 3421 | 74% |
| Sudbury | 1047 | 2719 | 38% | 1428 | 73% |
| Stoneham | 1893 | 2662 | 71% | 2623 | 72% |
| Medford | 5240 | 7655 | 68% | 7279 | 72% |
| Cambridge | 5347 | 10316 | 52% | 7665 | 70% |
| Weston | 696 | 1545 | 45% | 1037 | 67% |
| Woburn | 2172 | 3491 | 62% | 3637 | 60% |
| Southborough | 434 | 1069 | 40% | 727 | 60% |
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Now, I understand why Cambridge was so late in reporting their election results. It must take them a lot longer to add up the results from the voting machines when there are fewer people voting.
There seems to be one exception to that: Medford. It looks like Carl left about 2000 votes on the table when comparing Medford turnout with the previous election. Not enough to make a difference, but I wonder why that happened.
Carl only represents a portion of Medford. His district is half in Somerville. Also he’s better liked in the Somerville portion. In his two close races (against Ciampa and Trane) he did better in Somerville than in Medford, even though Trane was a Somerville alderman.
I view Carl as a better fit for Somerville than Medford. Yes, he was endorsed by Mayor McGlynn of Medford, but truthfully, he and McGlynn could serve as poster children for two very different kinds of Democrat in Massachusetts.
I know several elected officials in Medford who are not necessarily in the same political sphere, so to speak, but admire Carl’s work ethic and skills as a state representative. As a result, people who would not ordinarily go for the candidate who was running to the left of the field were on board with his candidacy.
In looking at precinct-by-precinct numbers in Arlington, there was a definite precinct effect in the results. The two precincts that were formerly in Brownsberger’s state rep district went solidly for him; not so much in the rest of the town. Without a precinct breakdown of Medford numbers, or a knowledge of their terrain, I don’t know if the same thing happened there. I would suspect, however, that Carl must have done much better in the corner of the city he represented.
Always wondered why McGlynn didn’t gun for hire office, but he’s been where he is for decades and probably enjoys being a big fish in a little pond.
way back in the day. In 1984, then U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas announced a run for President, opening up his seat. Then Congressman Ed Markey announced for U.S. Senate. Then State Rep. Mike McGlynn announced for Markey’s seat.
Illness cut short Senator Tsongas run and Senate career, LG John Kerry announced for the Tsongas seat and Markey dropped back into his Congressional seat, setting off a reverse chain reaction that had McGlynn dropping back to his Reps seat. In 1988 Mike McGlynn ran for and won the job in Medford City Hall . He is Massachusetts longest serving Mayor.
Did you remember to include only the Cambridge precincts that are included in the district? Only about 40% of the city is included in MA 5. Also, please remember that Cambridge is newly in the district, and a lot of folks were confused about that. At my Cambridge polling place, over 600 people voted – about 25%.
In my experience of this race, the Brownsberger and Clark voters were the most motivated to turn out. I don’t know why Carl underperformed so badly, especially in Cambridge where he needed to do well and should have.
the precincts and wards included.
following a long holiday weekend.
Was there not a professional development day in Cambridge, meaning students did not attend school on the heels of a long weekend?
I think that makes a difference in a low-visibility special election.
Great work Kate, love the numbers.