Who was right? You were.

You know what’s fun?  Looking back at pre-election predictions to see who nailed it.  So let’s take a peek.

There was a prediction thread posted about a week before the election.  Here are some winners from there:

• Margin of victory: fenway49 got it exactly right, calling it 52-48 for Walsh.
• Turnout: the winner was donnahobrien, who predicted 140,000.  Actual votes cast for Mayor were 140,120, or 140,680 with write-ins.
• City Council: no clear winner here.  Lots of people called the top 4 correctly, but nobody got the lineup exactly right, because nobody thought Michelle Wu was going to come in second over Michael Flaherty.  Also, nobody predicted that Annissa Essaibi George would come in 5th, nor did anyone see Bill Linehan beating Suzanne Lee as easily as he did.  And everyone thought that Josh Zakim was going to win a lot more easily than he actually did.  The District 8 race ended up going for Zakim 53-47, a 6-point margin where most BMGers predicted a blowout.
• Eastie Casino: fenway49 won this one, predicting a 10-point win for the forces of “no.”  The actual margin was 12 (56-44).

Also, I think we ought to acknowledge the prescience of doubleman, who right after the preliminary election opined that “Richie could be a kingmaker.”  I think that’s pretty close to what happened.  If you haven’t read Globe reporters Jim O’Sullivan and Stephanie Ebbert’s excellent behind-the-scenes piece on the Walsh and Connolly campaigns, go read it now.  From that article:

Landing Golar Richie’s support was a crucial juncture on Connolly’s general-election roadmap, particularly after Walsh had already wrapped up the support of two other mayoral contenders, Felix G. Arroyo and John Barros…. [Later,] Golar Richie called and gave Connolly her verdict. Her aides would back him, but she would endorse Walsh.

Twenty-four days before the election, the news devastated the Connolly campaign.

Among other interesting points, that article pretty much confirms what we and everyone else have been saying: that the trifecta of endorsements from Arroyo, Barros, and Golar Richie was a game-changer for Marty Walsh.

And finally, I cannot resist pointing out that the day the photograph to the left first appeared, I said that “[i]f I were Walsh, I’d post this photo every place I could find.”  That, in fact, is exactly what the Walsh campaign did.  Per the O’Sullivan/Ebbert Globe piece: “The campaign desperately wanted the image that would grace television ads, signs, and fliers: The iconic tableau of a smiling Golar Richie, Arroyo, and Barros strolling alongside a candidate who could appeal across neighborhoods, and who had the momentum.”  By the end of the campaign, even the campaign emails were featuring the photo with the words “I’m Voting for Marty” overlaid at the bottom (as in the photo at right, copied from a campaign email I received).

Did I miss something that you predicted that came true?  If so, toot your horn in the comments.

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