We have had an open thread on the caucuses. Thanks, David for promoting it twice. Like John Walsh, I appreciated the walk down memory lane of that “first day of the caucus window” in 2006 when Deval Patrick had such a strong showing.
There has been some coverage of the caucuses but I want to hear from you. I’ve seen a lot of excitement and lots of signature gatherers. In the past I have focused on caucuses in the Senate District that I represented for 18 years. Now that I represent Massachusetts on the DNC I am travelling around the Commonwealth, usually to larger caucuses. In some places, I have focused on talking to delegates and collecting signatures but have moved on to the next caucus and not had a sense of the actual election process. At others I have been able to stay. At my three most recent caucuses, everything was contested down to the last alternate.
I was asked on Wednesday if I was surprised by what I had seen at caucuses over the past few days. My response was that several months ago I was expecting more slates, more candidate activity. But as I have watched this election unfold, I was not surprised at what I saw over the weekend and the past few days.
The people who really know what is happening are the people in their own communities.
Questions…
Who do you see as the leaders in the guv race in your community, especially elected delegates?
What are you hearing about LG?
What about AG? Now there are two.
Treasurer?
I’m hoping that snow puts people in a contemplative mode. If you are so inclined please share with us your decision making process. Issues? Leadership qualities? Experience? Loyalty? Campaign staff? Availability of parking at the HQ? займ без проверки кредитной истории огозайм
I’ve mentioned this before, but nobody is where Deval Patrick was at this point in 2006. Lots of delegates undecided about Governor. Andover was a little bigger, but people there turned out to support favorite son Barry Finegold and still lots of uncommitted for Governor. Pepperell and Westford just had enough for there allocated slots. As a member of Field Services I helped carry the party’s message about expecting bigger caucuses than usual because of all the contested races, but so far that seems to be a lot of unfounded hype.
It’s a little early, I suppose, but not that early.
I have mixed feelings. First, he’s an idiot; second, he plagiarized it.
Third, isn’t he essentially right?
And I doubt he would be if George W. Bush were still around. But on the substance he’s right. Clever gimmick.
Just the messenger……
” I counted 6 Coakley delegates, 1 Grossman, 1 Kayyem, and I from the Ward 11 Backyard Barbeque Uncommitted Slate.”
It looks like no one will be dominant — though Grossman seems to be winning the caucuses. So we’ll have an organic convention, and everyone will make the ballot except maybe Avellone.
It aint like the good old days.
Surprised that some caucuses are having a hard time filling their slates. Forget Deval, nobody is as organized as Elizabeth Warren was two years ago. Do you think that Coakley and Grossman figured it wasn’t a good use of their time to organize at the caucus level? Both of them will get 15% I presume and nobody really cares who wins at the convention.
Though I have gotten quite a series of Grossman fliers.
our list.
I’m going hard after as many delegates as possible. It seems to me that the more candidates get 15% and make the primary ballot, the more options people looking for a Coakley alternative will have.
…but again I’m not seeing the level of effort I expected.
Totally unscientific, undocumented sense I get from what I’ve heard in the last week:
Committed delegates:
Grossman- 25%
Coakley- 10%
Kayyem- 9%
Berwick- 5%
Avellone- 1%
That would leave about half uncommitted.
A few other rumors that I cannot confirm or deny:
* Marty Walsh hoarding uncommitted delegates to play the convention, possibly as repayment for Rubin’s free consulting on his campaign.
* Avellone selling himself as “Stevie Lynch-lite” in the more moderate areas, but getting totally trounced by union folks who are committed to Grossman.
* Coakley will be able to swing enough uncommitteds to get Berwick and Avellone on the ballot, while Grossman would be able to get Kayyem on if need be.
* Prevailing thought (or is it wish?) amongst the Grossmen is that the convention’s a long way off, and Avellone won’t make it there with low poll numbers and bleeding money (eventually).
* Deval people committed to getting Coakley in. They think it should have been Grossman who inherited their support, but his staff pissed off Deval’s, so they see Coakley as best chance of continuity.
Again, this is all of the staff going around the chattering class. Not sure which pieces, if any, are true.
I see 4 or 5 candidates on the ballot, depending on if Avellone decides to stay in. WIthout a major gamechanger, Coakley walks away with the primary.
Her poll numbers are just name recognition. Grossman’s doing better among delegates and fundraising. Those are the early signs of a coup. I think her lead is a lot more fragile than it appears, and Grossman is likely to take the lead once people start paying attention.
I agree that the poll numbers reflect name recognition. The polls themselves show this: 33% of respondents saying they’d never heard of Grossman, only 3% saying they’d never heard of Coakley.
But I’m not all that ready to assume people are going to start paying attention. In some primaries a significantly higher name recognition to start is all you need. In this case I think the more candidates make the primary ballot, the more it favors Coakley.
Grossman is likely to take the lead once he starts spending down his cash to make people pay attention.
rather than a union guy? Yeah, that’ll work.
Which of the candidates has the best chance of beating Baker?
I’d rather a good candidate with a 60% chance of winning over a meh candidate at 70%. We’re not Nebraska…we can look for a strong and good candidate.
We’ve elected exactly one Democrat governor since 1986. We should be able to win this year, but I’m not so confident as to put any of them at 60% likelihood, let alone 70%.
At this point, I don’t think many people gave Deval a 60% chance in the primary. Given how far right the Republican Party has gone, anyway, and the damage Mitt Romney has done to it, I think it’s easier to get elected than it used to be. So I’m holding out for a candidate who can win and I want to win.
your point, Sabuti, but I think Fenway49’s point is important. We can lose this race to Baker and we shouldn’t lose sight of that in making our way through the primary.
What percentage of the delegates are committed, outside the candidates’ home towns?
Lots of activity with signature collection and pressing the flesh. I heard one activist comment that it felt like a reunion. We were addressed by Chairman McGee, Senator Markey, and Auditor Bump; candidates who spoke included Avellone, Coakley, Grossman, Cheung, Edwards, Kerrigan, Lake, Healey, Tolman, Conroy, and Finegold, as well as Middlesex DA Marian Ryan who is seeking election in her own right. Also making the rounds were Governor’s Councilor Eileen Duff, Senator Donoghue, and Reps. Murphy and Golden. In ward 6, we did not have any contested ballots; don’t know about the other wards.