Sunday was the last day to hold caucuses and our most recent diary about them is quite aways down the list now. I invite you all to post in the comments what you observed in the last week of caucuses and offer any predictions, insight, or analysis you might have now that they are concluded.
I think it’s anyone’s game. Most caucuses I attended did not have obvious victors, especially for offices other than Governor. I got an email from the Kayyem campaign claiming second place in the caucuses overall, but I don’t know how you could possibly measure that. There are a lot of uncommitted delegates and we could be in for some surprises at convention. Of course we haven’t even added on the youth, minority, and disabled delegates yet. I suspect all but Avellone will get 15%, but mathematically that doesn’t leave much room for anyone to really dominate. Assuming someone wants the endorsement we will surely go to a second ballot for Governor. LG may be interestingly split as well. Treasurer I predict they will all make the ballot, but hard to say if a second one will be needed. In the AG race with only two candidates there will only be one ballot; one will get the endorsement, but the other will also certainly get a ballot spot.
I still need to take Kate up on her phonecall so I can learn about this process, but I suspect you are correct. I see Kayyem just squeezing on and Avellone not making it, I see Berwick getting serious momentum with a Coakley 2nd place and Grossman 3rd place.
The only reason I can think to downrate that comment is disagreement with jconways predictions, in which case whoever did (IE won’t let me see.) should make their own.
From a post on Kayyem’s Facebook: “What a whirlwind these past couple of weeks have been. While I have thanked many of you at your caucuses, I wanted to take a moment to again express my gratitude. Because of you, we took second place at the caucuses and we are on our way to 15%! Your hard work has paid off and the momentum is on our side. We will ride this momentum to gathering add-on delegates, convincing undecided delegates and engaging the Commonwealth through signature gathering.”
I have a feeling a lot of people are being counted as “committed” delegates a bit prematurely, and some are probably being counted by multiple camps based on Berwick’s claim that he won 20% of delegates. For what it’s worth, Kayyem’s post included a graphic ranking delegate commitments in this order: Grossman, Kayyem, Coakley, Berwick, Avellone. I take all of this with a grain of salt if Berwick is saying he has about 20% committed to him, but Kayyem says she finished with the second most delegates to Grossman and she is “on [her] way to 15%.”
My sense is that Grossman is leading at this point and that Kayyem, Coakley, and Berwick are in a tight pack behind him, but I think it’s exceptionally difficult for any spectator (or campaign for that matter) to have a truly accurate sense of where things stand right now. I am a delegate and I’m committed to Grossman, but most of the delegates I know are uncommitted.
I volunteer with the Berwick campaign. I heard that Grossman was leading, Coakley was second but with Berwick very close behind her, and Kayyem hovering around 15%. The Kayyem people, however, say that they’re beating Coakley, so I have no idea how they’re doing their calculations. I remember hearing before that the Kayyem campaign was counting a lot of uncommitteds in their camp, which is a false representation.
I think there’s some level of commitment at the gubernatorial level, but with 5(?) candidates running for LG changes are someone’s being locked out. Those will be truly wild races.
This was the best attended caucus I’ve ever seen in Middleborough, but more for internal reasons than due to campaign organizing.
From what I understand rank and file AFL-CIO union members have been getting elected in cities all over the state. Not only do I think Toleman is now a lock ti get the nomination of the party it also means there will be a large block of delegates uncommitted to any Gov. candidate that Toleman will have a bit of influence on.
The only way he wins the nomination at the convention is if Maura Healey doesn’t get the 15% (a la DeFranco), right? I don’t see that happening. In a two-person race Warren might get past 50% for the convention endorsement, but I’m not sure how much it will matter. They should both make the primary and I imagine Healey will be a formidable candidate.
How Warren’s delegates who are uncommitted for governor might break is an interesting question.
…unless he did mean Tolman has a lock on winning the primary.
in fact mean “endorsement” and not “nomination.”
I figure anyone committed enough to be a delegate is subject to many influences, but Tolman would be a slightly louder one if they’re really committed to him.
…quotes a Globe article saying that all five gubernatorial candidates agree that he is leading the delegate count.