HAMDEN, Conn. — A new survey of 1,578 registered voters from across the country has concluded that the hottest name in American politics is none other than the senior U.S. Senator from Massachusetts.
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat elected in 2012, took the top spot in the Quinnipiac University National Thermometer poll released Thursday as she ranked at 48.6 degrees,
I’m most thankful to her for prompting Scott “I see Indians” Brown to flee to New Hampshire.
The full story, “Americans cool to NJ’s Christie as Massachusetts’ Warren rises” by Susan Heavey, is at Reuters.
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It’s not clear what these “temperatures” mean. I’ve never heard of polling measuring temperatures.
The Source
Christie lost the No. 1 spot to populist Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, in Quinnipiac’s “National Thermometer” poll.
Very interesting numbers in the Quinni press release.
So Imagine a world in which 40% of the population are rabid Republicans scoring Paul Ryan 100 and 60% think “meh, 20”. He gets a score of 52 but he’s certainly not going to be elected. ( 0.4 * 100 + 0.6 * 20)
Now imagine Hillary Clinton is scored at 80 by 60% of the population who really like her but don’t think she walks on water. The remaining 40%, being rabid Republicans, rate her at 0. Her “temperature” is a mere 48.
In that world, though, Ms. Clinton will beat Mr Ryan in a landslide — even though the temperatures would say the opposite.
So I claim these weighted averages are meaningless and the simpler question, “For whom would you vote?” tells you what you really want to know.
It tells us that the polling-media complex has invented a new way to talk about horse races – in this case, a completely hypothetical one.
Progress!
Accidental downrate. Sorry.