I’ve calculated how close each person was to guessing the actual results of the Dem Convention. I did it for each race as well as overall. To calculate I simply added up the distance from the actual (in absolute terms), For the overall result I calculated both the total (non-weighted) and the weighted average by race (so the race for governor didn’t count more than the race for attn general even though there were 5 values). The overall winner was the same regardless of weighting/non-weighting.
So without further comment, the results.
Governors race – hlpeary
Lt Governor – discobolos
Attn General – suffolk-democrat (nailed it)
Treasurer – striker57
Overall, all 4 races… drumroll please…. kkickmanma (2nd place sue-kennedy and 3rd – discobolos)
One very interesting note – The BMG Average actually outperformed everyone on the call for the Governors Race and came in at 3rd overall. It didn’t do so well with the other races.
Please feel free to comment on the surprises of the races (for example, Arena-DeRosa not making the cut, Lake coming in 2nd overall, how tight Healey/Tolman ended up, etc).
This was my first time participating in the convention (so keep that in mind when reading my thoughts).
Governor race: I was leaning strong (Berwick) going in and the speeches confirmed my thoughts. I wasn’t surprised when Kayyem and Avellone didn’t make the cut. I thought Coakley mis-stepped by talking about the Brown/Coakley race and it took her a while to get the crowd back into things. I couldn’t tell you a single thing about the Grossman talk – it was that memorable.
Lt. Gov. I was leaning slightly toward Cheung going in, leaning away from Lake, and no real opinion about the other 2. Kerrigan won me over with his video and speech. Arena-DeRosa had solid content but couldn’t seem to connect with the crowd. Cheung came across well (and it did make for a difficult decision) but he seemed a bit too inexperienced. I thought Lake was arrogant – especially his video putting him up as equal to Clinton/Obama/Warren – I don’t think he has earned that yet.
Attn General – Tolman’s video was a hoot. But the humor of the video was contrasted with his macho/aggressive speech (they didn’t flow well together). I didn’t much care about Healey’s talking basketball, but overall she talked my lingo. I also poked my head into their parties the night before (right across the hall from each other) – the Healey crowd was smaller and more female (but had the older men in beards – the professorial look).
Treasurer – It was a tossup for me with a slight leaning toward Goldberg. But Goldberg and Finegold came across to me as a little too “political” – saying the politically correct thing. Conroy (who I knew almost nothing about) seemed genuine and ready to simply jump into the job with no political agenda. I liked that. I spoke with some folks afterwards and asked who the biggest surprise was for them – Conroy came up several times with many saying they switched to him.
General notes – I’m not as hard on them for trying the iPad thing – gotta start working with it some time and can’t expect it to go flawless right out of the gate. It certainly looked to me like it was a training issue and not a technical one.
The food sucked and communication was poor, so as a noob I had no idea how long the count would take – so I didn’t want to venture too far. But why on earth have a convention in a place that has so little to offer right outside the door. A line of food trucks would have done a phenomenal business (but then again the DCU center wouldn’t have been happy to have competition for it’s overpriced stale popcorn).
The naming of the districts was confusing for us noobs – and when I asked for help I was sent to the wrong place. I finally figured it out, but not through the help of the volunteers. I was in a jumbled district, so why not give it some fun name instead of lumping together all the district names? There were too many districts close in naming to other areas). Or just number them all with clear numbers on my credentials.
I enjoyed the process overall and look forward to future conventions.
This was also my first convention and a fantastic experience. My thoughts:
Pros
Most impressive gesture: Don Berwick’s decision to forgo an opening video and just speak to us as a man describing what he believes and the experiences that formed him. Could he become Governor? The overwhelming consensus seems to be “no” but I wonder.
On the other hand, if you’re going to have a video, make it work for you! Great communication skills from Maura Healey and Warren Tolman, both in person and as “main characters.” Both of their compelling and clear messages will serve to highlight what an activist AG’s office does for the people of Massachusetts. Martha Coakley has her detractors on this board, but you have to admit she’s built that office into something that both these accomplished people aspire to. Possible rub-off effect? Anyhow, with apologies to the estimable John B. Miller, Esq., my prediction is that we will have a great attorney general come January …
Another reason not to count out Coakley: her superb campaign staff.
What a farm team! OMG the two very young men running for LG – it makes you have faith in the future of the our party and our state.
The candidates that didn’t make the cut: let’s give a shout out to these impressive people who didn’t have to do this, but who put themselves forward to serve the people of Massachusetts. Each one brought something special to the race. I hope they stay involved in politics, but whatever they do going forward, I’m sure these many months spent listening to the concerns of ordinary people is something they’ll carry with them forever. Thank you Juliette Kayyem, Joe Avellone, and James Arena-DeRosa for your hard work and your thoughtful recommendations on the issues confronting the Commonwealth.
Cons
So the best we can say about the voting process is that we didn’t screw up as badly as the Republicans? Why not a competition among the undergraduate CS majors in Massachusetts to design something better? Brain State and all that, you know …
A warning sign to the party organization: I agree with Charley that this was “a convention somewhat in search of its identity.” Three outsider candidates for governor took 41% of the vote. I think we have some hard work ahead of us.
I also noticed how close the aggregate was on the Gov’s race. All in all, DemVention was a blast, nice to see so many friends and meet some familiar faces.
Having been in the prediction business (finance and investments) most of my career, I find the use of an absolute deviation to be a less than satisfactory test of accuracy. Perhaps a rank ordering would be better. I can think of others.
That said, I’m not surprised that the BMG consensus did best in the Guv race. This is a well-known phenomenon in predictions by economists and financial analysts. The Wisdom of the Crowd.
And, it was a fun exercise. Plus, it got us talking to each other.
I think the most relevant comments here relate to (in the Guv race) the Fresh Face crowd, which took nearly 42% of the vote, more than was received by the ultimate winner in the Establishment Group (of 2). Although, as the only surviving Fresh Face, Don Berwick does not automatically get the support that went to the two candidates who didn’t make the cut, I think both top finishers should be worried about that possibility.
The voting fiasco was an embarrassment. It was a failure of technology and of vision. There is no reason this could not all be done with barcodes and written ballots that are scanned. And each delegate’s vote could still be made public to those in attendance via a secure website. The Teller could even announce the votes as they are scanned in, for those who like that touch of 19th-Century charm. It would still be a lot quicker than the current system.
As a Berwick supporter, I was hoping Don would come in 2nd and might have a chance to win the Endorsement on the second ballot. That 2nd-place finish didn’t quite happen, but if it had, the second ballot might have not taken place because the hall had emptied out and I doubt there was a quorum present.
Other observations are on my blog.
To me, solving the time it takes to actually vote isn’t the low hanging fruit. In fact, there are two others.
1. We were supposed to be in-place, checking in at 10 am. Check-in wasn’t complete until almost noon. There’s no way this should take 2 hours. It should be done in 30 minutes. It’s just a simple lack of discipline. Maybe tools and staff could help. The tool: an iPad for each of the 40 sections. The staff: 40 1-day employees or volunteers (perhaps Dems from neighboring states?), one for each section. That staff member holds the iPad and is responsible for keeping his or her section moving and on time. The current folks still have the role of calling out the names and confirming actual attendance, but that staffer prevents a local yokel from holding up the process, or at least can clearly and concisely indicate the problem to MA Dem folks.
2. Vote counting. If we keep the current vote process but instead input the result of the vote (“Michael Wilcox, Berwick. Michael Wilcox, Schmoe”, etc) in the iPad instead of the notebook, then we have instant results. As soon as the last section votes, we have the tabulation. Keep 20 minutes to deal with irregularities, and we’re set. That shaves another 2+ hours off the day.
We’ve just kept the traditional very public voting method, and shaved 4 hours off of the process. All with the help of some IT, 40 iPads, and 40 non-MA-Dem 1-day employees/interns/volunteers. It would save 10s of thousands of hours, and cost relatively little.
I was just trying to keep things in terms that everyone could understand (and figured it was adequate for a light-hearted contest). Please feel free to perform your own magic and come up with a different ranking – that’s why I posted the spreadsheet.
Any explanation as to why the wisdom of the crowd didn’t do as well in the other races?
Yes, I understand; it’s hardly a scientific survey, and it was fun.
I missed the link to your spreadsheet — I’d be happy to take a look.
should be looked at. Warren Tolman was the only candidate to earn the distinction of endorsed party candidate. That was even a stretch because Healy was only two percentage points behind him.
We only get to vote once on election day and that seems to work.
I could really feel the excitement in the Berwick for Governor camp. They clearly had the best day. I was also impressed with the Goldberg for Treasurer campaign. A lot of the un-decided voters were paying attention to her speech and they liked what they heard.
Overall it was a good convention considering the amount of great candidates we had this year.