I’ve heard a few people suggest over the past couple days that if the 2012 People’s Pledge was good enough for Liz Warren, it should be good enough for the candidates in the race for AG today. I think that misses the point.
In a hugely competitive US Senate race, built up in the media as more of a WWF title match than a political campaign, the Warren/Brown People’s Pledge of 2012 made an incalculable difference simply by banning ads on radio and TV.
No question.
Tens of millions in outside money would have been spent on the radio and TV in that race — and the vast majority of the ads would have been hit pieces, including those from our side, which would have undermined Liz’s gleaming image today.
So was the People’s Pledge she signed really what Liz Warren would have wanted in a perfect world — or was it what she could get to hold back what would have been a biblical flood of outside money?
She’s smart and pragmatic. I have no doubt it’s what she could get — and it made a huge difference in that race.
How about today?
We all need to remind ourselves that this AG’s race is not in anyway like that US Senate cage match at 2012 Ma Politicalmania.
If just TV and radio ads are banned in the AG race, it will look great on paper, but it may not make as big a difference in the race as people think. For AG (as opposed to US Senate or Governor), there would be far less money for TV or radio ads from any organization to begin with. Direct mail will be a huge amount of where outside resources go.
Outside TV and radio ads are just going to be too costly to air to any huge extent for an AG campaign, particularly when there’s a very competitive Governor’s race going on, which will be a much higher priority for most organizations — and which will drive up the cost of TV advertisements.
I’m not saying there wouldn’t be some outside TV or radio ads for the AG’s race, but they would be fairly limited. Furthermore, the groups supporting all the candidates aren’t making much of a ruckus about this TV and radio mutual disarmament — so I think they’d happily spend less and target more through the mail.
So, yes, the fight over direct mail matters.
I think over the next few days, we’ll see both candidates agree.
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My words are mine and mine alone. They do not represent any other person, group or organization.
I certainly think that direct mail should be included. We have a model of a people’s pledge in a Democratic Primary that worked and was a clear improvement over the previous version. Why fight with success?