What do you all think of the ad released today by the Berwick campaign? By telling the story of John, a former Republican, I think it has the potential to draw the interest of many moderate Massachusetts voters. Maybe even a few Republicans too!
Here is my favorite line: “Then, despite what Limbaugh and Hannity had led me to believe all those years, the safety net came to our rescue.” With Don as our next Governor, we would strengthen the ever-weakening safety net that our state government provides for those who fall on hard times and act as a beacon for the rest of the nation to follow.
Please share widely!
It’s peculiar.
That’s a peculiar characterization.
Seems like a straight-ahead this-is-what-happened-to-me testimonial to me. What do you find “peculiar” about this?
Look, I like hearing former conservatives tell how the scales fell from their eyes as much as the next BMGer, but this is a candidate who has not defined himself to the voters. And the election is in, what 6 weeks?
I hate to be a paint-by-numbers kind of guy, but the Berwick campaign is going to great lengths to be quirky and unconventional. And peculiar.
I doubt it’s a good idea.
Maybe someone could have made this work, but the segue to Berwick, the connective tissue, is paper thin.
It’s peculiar in that Dr. Berwick is heading into a Democratic primary and not a general election against a conservative Republican. So it’s not at first clear what this ad is trying to accomplish.
… at least, that’s what occurred to me when I saw it. Between Christy Mihos in 2006 and Tim Cahill in 2010, it seems like ‘independent’ candidacies are something of a cottage industry in the CommonWealth…
if that happens. I’m not a big Coakley fan and I’m already not thrilled with the Berwick campaign, but I’d be very, very slow to forgive such a run.
Don Berwick is running as a Democrat and has no intention of running as an independent.
And we will see how many votes McCormick and Falchuk might siphon off in November. Adding Berwick to the mix won’t result in a victory for him, and it will discredit his movement, supporters, and future candidates like him for years to come. I would not support such a move.
Don’t see how making an ad appealing to a broad segment of the primary electorate, the regulah Dems, independents, etc. is not a smart move. It’s in fact the move I recommended last week when I lamented at all the time spent in the Needhams, Naticks, Newtons, Cambridge’s, and Northampton’s and not enough time in Wakefield, Melrose, Beverly, or Franklin. This ad appeals to joe six pack in Franklin who is exactly the kind of voter Berwick has to reach.
… But unless you speak directly for the candidate… do you?… the question remains.
There are a lot of too-clever-for-their own good political consultants whispering all sorts of things in candidates ears. Those who have hired Berwick would love to have jobs past the Democratic primary.
Until you say you don’t, the question remains.
… since I made no declarative statements about the candidates intent…
Should we assume the AG approves of this spin coming from her camp?
Should we trade absurdities all day long, until we’ve turned into Fox?
I made no declarative statements about the candidate. I did make some declarative statements about the ad and about past elections, to wit:
— it’s not a primary ad, so the timing is suspect. I’m not the only one to consider it peculiar.
— The past two gubernatorial elections in the CommonWealth have featured prominent independent candidates
— ‘silly’ doesn’t mean impossible or even improbable: just because you think it an absurdity and, indeed, even if it is an utter absurdity, such does not make it a non-starter. Stranger things have happened.
— consultants like to get paid.
From these declarative statements I made I asked the questions that were begged. Fenway answered with his opinion. Every declared Berwick supporter who has replied has either made definitive statements about the candidates intent or have been merely dismissive of the potential inherent in the ad… Few have directly addressed the peculiarities of the ad itself.
YOU’RE TROLLING.
Cut it out.
… to pass judgement. My bad. Next time I have doubts about who is/is not trolling, i’ll be sure to use the ALL-CAPS emergency batjimc signal to get clarification…
After Coakley loses her race for Governor, how many other races is she going to run in? Until I hear her rule herself out for 2016, Hillary better watch out!
There is no way he runs as an independent. That’s silly.
If he loses the primary, which I expect he will, even though I will continue to work hard for him, I hope that he remains very vocal and motivates people to support the Dem nominee but also hold the nominee accountable to progressive values, especially around issues of inequality.
And maybe he’ll run against Governor Baker in 2018…
… has the potential to scare away as many true progressives as it does attract any moderates. Quite frankly, despite the ratiocination by you and jconway, it’s clearly not a primary ad. It’s more like a general election ad than anything I’ve seen yet. Why would it play in a primary? The only time I could see an ad like this having any affect is if it were run by a primary candidate way way up in the polls. Berwick, clearly, is not that candidate.
If Berwick is trying some sorta ‘reverse-dog-whistle’ to the moderates while shoring up his this purported progressive base, this ad isn’t going to do that. It’s a clear plea to general election voters. Maybe he, or his consultants, think he’s ‘thinking outside the box’, but they can’t have overlooked the clear implications of that. They wouldn’t be very good political consultants if they did.
Is it ‘silly’? Ya. But this is the ‘silly season’, no?
How so? He’s just positioning himself as the candidate most concerned about the safety net and strengthening it to address inequality. It’s an area that true progressives care about but that rarely gets discussed by campaigns. Sure, it’s about a white republican, and going for broad appeal (which you need for a primary and a general in MA). I think your claim that it is positioning for an independent run is completely out of whack.
From people inside the campaign, I have not heard even the faintest whisper of running as an independent, and among Berwick supporters, I have never heard anyone push for it. The candidate has also never implied he might explore that.
Regarding your citation of recent independent runs in MA, when has the progressive run as the independent? That move has always been a centrist’s game.
I like the ad alright, but I don’t think it is in anyway a gamechanger. I think he should have hired the firm who made Sciortino’s ad – go with less humor, but strongly state the claim to the progressive mantle. Hit on a number of areas and have the candidate speak directly.
Because people like the man in the ad vote in these primaries, independents vote in these primaries, and a lot of regular working class Democrats, who don’t caucus, don’t follow BMG or Bernstein, aren’t paying attention right now, might be intrigued hearing about an upper class republican falling on hard times and becoming a Democrat. It might remind them of the fighting faith of our party. If Coakley was running this ad you’d be singing it’s praises and attacking it’s critics as sexist pigs…
… because Coakley is the front runner and can reasonable look forward to a run in the general election. That’s my point: this is clearly an ad by someone who expects to participate in the general election. To date, among the primary candidate, Martha Coakley is the only candidate who can reasonably expect to be in the race after the primary.
Berwick, without an independent run, is gone after the primary. Gone. G.O.N.E. There’s no reason to run an ad suitable for a general election unless you plan to be in the general election. It would be, well, odd to do so… to say the least.
There’s something to be said for the strategy of playing to the general early. It shows you know what you are doing if you are the nominee and it allows you to avoid attacking the frontrunner in a way that might harm her in the general. As has been pointed out unenrolleds can vote in the primary and the vast majority of them will probably pull Dem ballots since that’s where the action is.
… I merely asked if it was an ad used to position for that possibility. It’s not outside the realm of possibility, however much you want it it be. The situation Berwick finds himself in is not dis-similar from that of Mihos in ’06 or Cahill in ’10. Not perfectly the same, either… but, as I said, stranger things have happened.
That the response has been of three different sorts, to wit: A) “That’s impossible”; 2) “I know for sure it’s not happening”; and the always popular deflection, iii) “You’re a Coakley mouthpiece/spinner”, none of which address the actual ad, strongly indicates that you fear, very much, what an independent run would say about your candidate. Which, likewise, suggests your continued search for a newer much improved Jesus has impaired your judgement.
But this troll won’t be getting any more food from me.
…”Not possible”!
…”Not happening”!!
…” You’re a mouthpiece”!!
…”You’re a troll”!!!
FOUR! Our four responses are…
Good think that nobody ever expects the wonkish inquisition…
It does seem to be a pretty wild speculation on your part. It also is not an especially interesting one either. Whatever.
All of the deadlines to file as such will have passed by the primary and most procedural deadlines have passed already.
It’s nice to hear from a guy who was living comfortably — ski vacations, a nice chess set — that government helped him. It breaks the stereotype about government assistance. Kudos.
for the principles of the Dem Party. I met him during the EW campaign. Although I disagree with his choice for Governor, he walks the walk and openly shares his story.
All the friends that drew me back to Catholicism had converted to it, and similarly, those that are ex-conservative tend to make the best liberals. Like Thomas Frank, Jim Leach, or the guy who founded Media Matters.
Really weird commercial.
He is saying these are real lives, not line items.
We know how Baker ran HPHC, like a business focused on cutting costs rather than a healthcare system focused on making people better. We know Coakley said her top priority is cutting waste and abuse, and we know Grossman’s signature accomplishments are getting more people hooked on the lottery and chasing after Herald readers with EBT fraud accounts. This is real middle class blue collar New Deal liberalism that berwick just recovered.
It reminds me of those devastating ads against Bain, or the ads where Warren shows how she helped people get back on their feet. That is government serving a positive role. We haven’t seen as much as that from the other Democrats, who are shying away from a full progressive vision, and we definitely won’t see that from Baker.
This guy reminds me of my uncle, who was ashamed he had to take unemployment, ashamed to sell the summer house and nice cars when times got tough, and someone who voted for Baker and Brown last time around but won’t be now. He is about as mad as this guy was in the ad at his old friends and how people can get duped by fear, while government is often the last best hope.
I appreciate your taking the time to respond, I just don’t get how this ad works in a Democratic primary.
vote in the Dem Primary. Independents who usually lean Republican may be swayed by arguments that show that it is possible to improve lifestyle in the state, and putting some money back in people’s pockets. This is a liberal stance, but through health insurance reform, expanding infrastructure to support jobs, reducing prison populations, making urban life safer, etc. The noise you are hearing from the more conservative side or candidates they call liberal is tackling problems that are not fundamentally root based with true ripple effect that helps everyone. How does the Partners deal help the expense of health insurance? How does putting money in local banks resolve the oversized banking institutions that still play Russian roulette with depositor’s money. How does a successful lottery system improve the lot of our citizens?
The two other campaigns just keep shouting “Jobs and the Economy” when they are not shouting at each other. I fail to see how that resonates with Democrats. The unemployment rate is 6%. In other words, 94% of people looking for work, have it. It’s Republicans who continue to tell the public that the economy is a mess, that things are bad, and they can right this ship.
This video addresses Democratic principles. This video shows the difference between Charlie Baker and Don Berwick, rather than how the Steve Grossman or Martha Coakley candidate can outdo Charlie Baker at his own game.
So how do we beat Charlie Baker in November? Do we fight against him on his terms or do we stand and win on our own terms?
That’s the decision Democrats need to make in September. That’s why this video is important.
. . . and we also put a doctor and world-renowned health policy expert up against the insurance company executive. That’s a debate I would love to see.
The 6% figure is somewhat misleading. The recession caused a large dip in the percentage of non-elderly adults who are working. We have not recovered from that dip. The fact that so many people have given up looking — and are not counted among the 6% — is easily overlooked but it is not a good development. Furthermore, real wage increases have been pretty stagnant for a while. So yes, jobs and the economy remain important issues.
Without sources, your claims that you detect resonance or lack of resonance regarding the jobs and the economy are unconvincing.
Has anyone seen how well casino jobs pay?
Have you noticed how deeply red roses can be?
But HPHC is a business. To run it as if it were something it isn’t is to be, well, foolish.
I think the point is rather that private industry experience, with its bottom line focus, does not bless one with a magic ability to run governments where purposes are moral as well as fiduciary.
The myth of the Magic Businessman holds great power both on the right and the left.
It’s a critical message that most in Massachusetts (including me) are ready to rally behind. But someone slipped the message a few Valium to calm its nerves.
I almost get the feeling that the Berwick campaign is like the Libertarians and Greens, they are more interested in feeling superior about their beliefs than in winning an election. If they want to get this thing done they need to deliver the truth in hand grenades, not as soft cushions.
then I suggest you go and listen to him, and ask questions. He did oppose the Partners deal, and has been strong in his belief that casinos are bad for the economy and our social fabric. This is an able administrator, being CEO of a non profit, and in charge of a $500 billion budget at CMS. In that position I am sure it was not all peaches and cream to run. If you go to your local Dem Committee, he appears to press his campaign(as others do), but in that smaller setting you can ask questions. Also berwickforgovernor.com has more positions at ripple effect levels than any of the others running. In short, he will make a fine governor with a no nonsense liberal agenda, but targeted at all political persuasions. He is far from a holier than thous candidate.
I didn’t mean to criticize Berwick as not genuine, or as not competent – I meant to address the commercial specifically, and more generally his campaign’s ability to get voter attention. I hope that Berwick wins the nomination, and I would happily vote for him.
not to you who will, for sure, take a Democratic Ballot in Sept, but to those Independents who lean Republican, but have some inkling this is not the Party of their forebears. It will be these voters, if they come out, making up the majority in this state, who have the power to pick the Democratic nominee. Those that vote Democratic among the independents make up some 11 to 30% of the vote. It’s a smart strategy to appeal to a broader swath of these primary voters. If his attraction of Democratic Party activists increases from his Convention percentage to 30%, then he comes very close to victory in a 3 person, low turnout election. It would be better if we had a more engaged, better informed electorate, but whatever distractions that exist do not give us such a case. So this is Don Berwick’s approach with present realities. We will see if it works.
Independents, historically, have been a significant part of the turfs I have cut for many campaigns of late.
might study the polling.
He is still in single digits! In July! He is doing much, much worse than either Reilly or Gabrieli in July — and they were running 2nd and 3rd that month 8 years ago.
So whatever stuff he’s doing that we BMG members (me included by the way) find so moving is just not cutting it as far as a campaign goes.
But Grossman isn’t giving me that many reasons to defect to him, at this point, it might be worth it to stop the inevitably Coakley fail in November.
this ad does not make me any more or any less likely to vote for Berwick. I like Berwick, idealogically he is probably the candidate who appeals to me the most. What I haven’t heard from him in his campaign is how he plans to govern. In state where the Speaker of the House and the Senate President arguably have more political power than the Governor how does plan to build the relationships and coalitions he will need to get his agenda enacted?
Please go look at his web site, you’ll see plenty of derails about how he plans to govern.
I asked this from the get go, how are you getting past DeLeo? Berwick doesn’t answer that, but to be fair, neither do the other three. So I go with Berwick since at least by trying to catch the biggest fish it makes it more likely that some of the small ones end up in the net.
The front-runner LIKES Mr. DeLeo, and has been careful to align her agenda with that of Mr. Speaker. Neither Mr. Grossman nor Ms. Coakley have to worry about “getting past DeLeo”, because they’re perfectly willing to cow-tow to him.
The events of this summer — especially the Probation Department scandal and the unfortunate responses of Mr. DeLeo and Mr. Walsh — are firing up the large number of un-enrolled voters who don’t like the agenda of the legislature, who don’t like the perception of a pervasively corrupt “one party” government, and who don’t like the tone-deaf arrogance of current State government.
I spent last weekend in Palmer, MA. I’m telling you that things are NOT going well for folks who live in that area. The folks I talked to were far more concerned about the to-them incredible scale of the Probation Department scandal than they were about either side of the buffer-zone issue.
The bet we are collectively placing by nominating Martha Coakley is that we peel off enough of those unenrolled voters to keep the corner office. I remind us that Bob DeLeo will retain his position whatever happens in November, and I think I can make a case that a Republican governor makes his life easier (a good enemy is a hugely valuable political asset).
It is therefore no skin off Bob DeLeo’s back if Martha Coakley is nominated and loses.
The bottom line is that I think we’re going to nominate Martha Coakley. I think Martha Coakley is going to be defeated by Charlie Baker, and I think the election is not going to be close.
Sadly, I think that once we’ve nominated Ms. Coakley, her defeat by Charlie Baker won’t make one iota of difference. Bob DeLeo will still control the state’s agenda, Maura Healey will proudly continue Ms. Coakley’s tradition as AG (ensuring that the various rackets and arrangements currently enjoyed by the Democratic Party continue without undue harassment), and nothing will change.
…that Grossman and Coakley will kowtow to the Speaker? I don’t get that vibe, especially from Grossman.
The main thing Mr. DeLeo cares about right now is casino gambling. Both Steve Grossman and Martha Coakley join him in supporting casino gambling.
Neither Mr. Grossman nor Ms. Coakley has said anything to suggest that they have interest in challenging Mr. DeLeo’s opposition to desperately needed tax increases, to desperately needed investments in public transportation, or to anything else Mr. DeLeo opposes.
Ms. Coakley, in particular, has carefully aligned her public posture with the priorities of Mr. DeLeo. Neither Steve Grossman nor Don Berwick has a realistic chance to win the September primary.
If Berwick is true to his convictions why doesn’t he call for DeLeo to step down?
Imagine calling for it then actually being elected? If you though Deval Patrick had trouble getting stuff through the House…!
… While that is the most likely outcome, that’s not entirely assured.
If I had either the money or the time to organize a merry band of street performers to hang out in the 19th Suffolk district during the upcoming — a la “billionaires for Bush”– I would dress them in felons garb and bedeck them with signs reading “Indicted co-conspirators in support of un-indicted co-conspirator Bob DeLeo” and “You can be an un-indicted co-conspirator, too…“. We would hand out bumpah stickahs too… I don’t know if it would have any real affect, but we’d sure could have fun with it… I really wish I had more money and more time…
… Also, it would be more productive than frothing on and on about Coakley.
I don’t get to vote for or against Mr. DeLeo. I agree that replacing Mr. DeLeo with a real Democrat will be a far more constructive change than anything that will come from what any of us say for or against Martha Coakley.
Mr. DeLeo will still be the Speaker after the November election, I’ve seen nothing to suggest that there’s even a remote possibility that that will change. Perhaps a late-breaking indictment might make a dent in his support in the House, but I doubt it.
http://www.berwickforgovernor.com
is the running time. So this doesn’t appear to be a broadcast or cable ad. My question is who is going to see this? I’m sure Berwick supporters will social network the video yet this is the big leagues – that means broadcast a cable.
And a little sad, I think an edited version that gets to the point faster and ends a little bit more upbeat directly connecting the guy to Don would be a slight improvement. Way better than Grossman’s tone deaf ads calling himself a ‘job creator’ and using Republican rhetoric or his scare tactics and histrionics in the gun control ad. Has Coakley even bothered to advertise yet, or is she booking her cruise trip right about now?
if the polling doesn’t move. It’s just a lovely ornament.
is the two present front runners are not building any strong GOTV effort. At this point over 1000 volunteers are out phone banking or knocking on doors. Over 60,000 at this point. He goes to 2 to 3 events a day. He has put together a GOTV strategy and using conference call to set the tone and organize the campaign(over a hundred on the line last time). He is starting from a far back position, and there was not the hoopla surrounding Sen Warren when she entered the ring. If he does represent your values, and he makes sense how to get the job done, there is only one thing to do. Get off the sidelines, volunteer, and make the fight to get him elected. There is no invisible hand in politics or the economy, it takes work to get things right.
All of the campaigns have canvasses and phone banks, though for whatever reason the Grossman campaign hasn’t kept its weblistings uptodate.
and no one has knocked on my door or called since the State Convention. Reading has a very active Committee. I should have heard from the other campaigns.
Have you otherwise indicated your support if you didn’t vote there? If so I have zero expectation your door would be knocked; in fact to do so would be a waste of time. Even if there were no official record of your support a local activist supporting Coakley or Grossman may have told a campaign organizer, “Don’t bother with [oetkb]; that person is committed to Berwick.” I don’t know if Reading is a targeted community for anybody, but here are the lists of canvasses and similar events:
Berwick
Coakley
Grossman (Though still out of date, this is the one I’m am supporting and have cut a lot of turf for, so I know they have several canvasses each weekend. The weekend that is listed is fairly representative.)