Given the conversations on this site about a potential Warren Presidential candidacy, I thought it might be of interest to post some of the crosstabs from the most recent CNN Poll, released on July 29.
| Candidate | Total | Men | Women | White | Non-White |
| Vice President Joe Biden | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| Former Sec of State H. Clinton | 67% | 63% | 70% | 63% | 71% |
| NY Governor Andrew Cuomo | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| MD Governor Martin O’Malley | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| MA Senator Elizabeth Warren | 10% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 6% |
| Someone else | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 8% |
| None/No one | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| No opinion | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
It goes without saying that polls are just snapshots in time…
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He’s sandbagged a great idea: a more progressive income tax to help fund services for all the people of New York City. He’s part of the problem, not the solution.
Martin O’Malley and Andrew Cuomo are young enough that they can plausibly wait until 2020/2024, although they’re obviously both “seriously considering” 2016. O’Malley’s term limited, so I guess he might as well give it a try.
national polling results are largely meaningless for the 2nd and 3rd tier candidates when so much is determined in Iowa and New Hampshire, and then in small sets of states at a time.
These are great numbers for Hillary, but they tell us a lot less about any of the other people polled at this time.
Crosstabs for 2004 at this point wouldn’t even include Howard Dean, in 2008 Obama was solidly getting creamed by Hillary for the black vote, let alone the national vote of Democrats. Internal polling looked bad for us in Iowa, I was there, and repeatedly told to get Biden, Dodd, and Richardson voters to make us their second choice since we were terrified Hillary was a default plan B for those guys. Nobody saw the Edwards surge either, in 2004 or 2008 in Iowa.
Lieberman had a solid national lead and NH lead at this stage in 2004, based largely on name recognition.
She will be incredibly hard to beat, but she was in 2008 and still lost. The right kind of candidate could give her a real run for her money. I am totally unconvinced Warren is eager to be that candidate or that she would be the best fit for an alternative.
The DC establishment can dismiss him as finished over gun control, or calling Eric Cantor gay, but, I think he would strongly appeal to Iowa and NH voters, and possibly catapult himself into contention with a smart campaign there. Nobody can out hand shake or charm him, and he is honestly a reincarantion of Bill Clinton when it comes to explaining complicated policy ideas with down home folksy anecdotes. A big difference is that he is a genuine economic populist progressive, strongly anti-war, and a civil libertarian. I think he could make waves if he runs the right way.
If he runs and HRC doesn’t I would give him strong consideration.
Sounds like he won’t be getting your vote then đŸ˜‰
She actually was a lot better on Colbert than she was on Stewart, still an awkward segment for her if she wants tk be seen as humble and of the people. I could’ve with her as a nominee and President, but I want a real fight.
…snapshot in time.
Early polls aren’t predictions.