It appears that Seth Moulton’s campaign was right to suggest he was the better Democratic candidate to oppose Richard Tisei. From today’s Globe story about Deval Patrick’s endorsement of Moulton:
…one group that handicaps political races nationwide changed its prediction for the November general election based on Tierney’s loss.
While the Cook Political Report had previously viewed the race between Tierney and Tisei as a toss-up, analysts now say the race “leans Democratic,” “in light of . . . John Tierney’s primary loss to Seth Moulton,” said David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report, where he is responsible for handicapping and analyzing elections to the US House
Of course conventional wisdom had Moulton losing the primary, so this kind of conventional wisdom could be equally dangerous. While I’m confident that Moulton will be the next Congressman in the 6th–I will be volunteering for him–Tisei is well known and liked in the district (except of course in Democratic activist circles). So without Democratic volunteers knocking the doors and predictive dialing for Moulton, Tesei could pull the same kind of upset Moulton did.
Another interesting tidbit from the article is that Moulton is leveraging his experience of four tours in Iraq to become a voice of caution about entangling current US “advisors” into combat in Iraq.
“We need to understand exactly how we’re going to have military advisers in Iraq who are not going to get drawn into a ground war,” Moulton said, noting that he has spent time as a military adviser in Iraq, drawn into combat. “After all, the Vietnam War started as a military advisory mission.”
Moulton words of caution having been given a wider progressive audience with recent MSNBC interviews with Rachael Maddow and Chris Matthews.
If Tisei gets elected, he will probably take a page from Scott Brown’s playbook and pretend to be independent. He will find some meaningless votes to publicly disagree with Boehner on issues involving choice and women’s rights. If elected, it will be almost impossible to get rid of Tisei.
So, we really need to support Moulton to avoid a GOP pickup in our home state.
It won’t be “almost impossible” to get rid of Tisei.
If he were to win and tried to assert his independence, the tea party would likely primary him and do the job for us. If elected, Tisei would face an endless stream of tough votes; he won’t be able to defect on then all and he’ll be roundly opposed in his district when he does. We have a deep bench in Massachusetts, and a isolated Republican Congressman can expect to face a determined, talented, and well-funded Democrat in every election.
In terms of legislative action, the seat is unlikely to matter much this session. In the very worst-case scenario, he holds the seat through Hilary’s first term and part of her second, and gets redistricted out of it in 2020.
So yes: it would be much better if Moulton won, but let’s not get carried away.
How large do you imagine this tea party thing to be in Massachusetts?
…when redistricting takes affect is nothing to relax about.
redistrict it to make it more blue.
The 6th has been getting redder, not bluer, with population changes.
The tea party didn’t “primary” Scott Brown when he showed his independence. If you look at Brown’s voting record, he only showed independence when his vote didn’t matter. Tisei would probably do the same thing, if elected.
Also, it’s a conservative district. If Tisei wins, he will be there for a long time.
We’d have a great chance at defeating Tisei next term — incumbents are always weakest in their first reelection — but after that, it gets harder.
Presidential years would offer opportunities, but it would be critical to make Tisei a one termer should he defeat Moulton, otherwise Tisei would have a chance to become ingrained in the district. He could make bad votes but get away with it with a little pork and a few very calculated (likely when the issue is already decided) votes against the Republicans.
Still, though, I’d feel pretty good that between it being a Presidential election year in 2016 and having Tom McGee and Kim Driscoll as possible candidates that we could defeat Tisei should Moulton go down.
…but an incumbent is at his most vulnerable at his first attempt at re-election, and we did beat Brown in 2012. Like 2012, 2016 is a presidential year and I have no doubt we would have a few high caliber Democrats vying for the opportunity to take Tisei on.
Tierney said so, and until last Tuesday everyone loved Tierney. Moulton gets in and you’re stuck with him. He could be anybody. He’s a person who happened to think running as a D in MA was his best shot. Duh. He did go to Harvard so I’m assuming he has a clue.
He could attract opposition if he is not progressive enough.
Tisei has a long record as a state senator, and his stances on issues are well known. He actually IS a progressive on many issues and a better known quantity than Moulton who has no record.
Why do you need to pretend that this is some cunning plan on his part to mislead you when he is REALLY Ted Cruz wearing a mask? There’s nothing wrong with supporting your unknown winner on a partisan basis, but why make stuff up about Richard to justify it?
What are those issues? Social issues where his progressive stances will be entirely negated by the House Majority or economic ones where he will be voting in lockstep to shut down the government, pass Ryancare to eviscerate Social Security and Medicare, or killing the Import-Export Bank?
If you are concerned about a congressman having his progressive stances on social issues wiped out by the GOP majority, how do you justify voting for any of the current 9 legislators?
And trying to restore one that is economically and socially progressive. Tisei is not an economic progressive by any stretch, and any moderate stances won’t go anywhere with that majority.
does anyone remember the story of the two Peters, Blute and Torkildson? They were part of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract for America” class. They were swept out in the next election, never to be heard from again, except for Blute’s bimbo eruption booze cruise when he was ensconced at MassPort.
They weren’t swept out in the next election
Not exactly a “swept,” though of course a loss nonetheless.
And if not, where will it come from?
We started on Wednesday with $350,000 in general election money. That number has increased. The DCCC has been very helpful with resources and with commitments to raise. The delegation has also been helpful, and one of the first pledges to contribute was from Senator Warren.
These first few days have been pretty busy, but Seth looks forward to engaging the BMG community personally in the coming week.
Scott Ferson
Moulton campaign
Scott, congrats on running a great race. It was a really impressive victory, and Seth, you and the entire campaign team deserve a lot of credit. Looking forward to doing everything we can to help win in November.
Seth Moulton will have to make his intentions to gain support for progressive legislation clearer. He is on the same page as Tierney, but he must write his own. Tisei on the other hand has a deeper public record. Affable yes, but a nasty campaigner with a short temper(Ask Katherine Clark about his behavior during a parade when he was told his sign holding was against the rules). He also gets his facts wrong either on purpose or out of using hearsay from his interest groups. Hopefully voters will come to know both of these candidates better, but Tisei just doesn’t measure up to being forthright on what he believes.
Congratulations on the Coakley win. Seth is ready to help the coordinated campaign succeed in the 6th, and to seeing the AG in the district soon.