Even if Landreiu wins a plurality, the right will consolidate by the time of the second election around whichever Republican opponent does better. Similarly, while I am convinced the libertarian in GA may siphon off enough Purdue voters to give Nunn the symbolic first round victory. The runoff will be harder to sustain as black turnout will significantly decrease. I am hoping she can do better than Jim Martin did with white voters, and maybe the presence of a Carter on the ticket against an unpopular incumbent Republican will help her. But she really has to win rd 1 and I don’t see it.
merrimackguysays
No way around it, Nov 4th looking like a tough day for Democrats.
The only question left is whether NC and NH get pulled into the red column with the tide.
The optics are looking volatile, though the polling still looks favorable towards the GOP. Since the Democrat is now in 2nd place, it makes less sense to consolidate a an independent like Pressler.
Even if Landreiu wins a plurality, the right will consolidate by the time of the second election around whichever Republican opponent does better. Similarly, while I am convinced the libertarian in GA may siphon off enough Purdue voters to give Nunn the symbolic first round victory. The runoff will be harder to sustain as black turnout will significantly decrease. I am hoping she can do better than Jim Martin did with white voters, and maybe the presence of a Carter on the ticket against an unpopular incumbent Republican will help her. But she really has to win rd 1 and I don’t see it.
No way around it, Nov 4th looking like a tough day for Democrats.
The only question left is whether NC and NH get pulled into the red column with the tide.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/