Just to shed a little empirical light on a discussion occurring elsewhere, here are cross-tabulations by party and gender from the most recentWBUR/MassInc poll, limited to comparing Governor Baker with Elizabeth Warren among the Massachusetts electorate:
| All Voters | ||||
| Fav | Unfav | Undecided | Never Heard of | |
| Baker | 69 | 10 | 17 | 3 |
| Warren | 53 | 34 | 12 | 1 |
| Democrats | ||||
| Fav | Unfav | Undecided | Never Heard of | |
| Baker | 63 | 14 | 18 | 4 |
| Warren | 67 | 18 | 13 | 1 |
| Republicans | ||||
| Fav | Unfav | Undecided | Never Heard of | |
| Baker | 78 | 9 | 10 | 3 |
| Warren | 29 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| Unenrolled | ||||
| Fav | Unfav | Undecided | Never Heard of | |
| Baker | 72 | 8 | 18 | 3 |
| Warren | 48 | 40 | 12 | 1 |
| Men | ||||
| Fav | Unfav | Undecided | Never Heard of | |
| Baker | 75 | 9 | 13 | 3 |
| Warren | 48 | 40 | 11 | 1 |
| Women | ||||
| Fav | Unfav | Undecided | Never Heard of | |
| Baker | 64 | 11 | 21 | 3 |
| Warren | 57 | 29 | 13 | 1 |
Links to toplines and crosstabs
Please share widely!
I was surprised to see Baker leading Warren among women voters.
it eventually wears off.
As Mitch McConnell famously said, Republicans made tearing down Obama their #1 priority before he even took office. Democrats obviously put a lot more value in collective problem-solving than Republicans do, but it’s possible to work together in some areas and highlight what a Democratic governor would be doing differently in others.
Do folks see a strategy by the state party and its leaders to raise questions about Baker’s leadership & (lack of) solutions?
This thread may have an answer
I contend that it is important to show we are the party that governs, so to the extent Baker is governing form the center-left (eliminating corporate tax subsidies to expand EITC to working families for instance) we should be all for it. Where he is governing from the center-right, turning the T’s operations crisis last winter into an opportunity for union busting and privatization-we should hold firm in rejecting his agenda.
That is what the legislature should do. We also need new faces of the opposition with great ideas and proven leadership on important issues facing the state. There are few Mayors as ‘Green’ as Kim Driscoll or as committed to mass transit as Joe Curtatone. Either or both on our 2018 ticket would be a formidable team of fresh faces and experienced leadership separated from the taint of establishment DINOcrats on Beacon Hill like Bobby deLeo. Balancing their executive experience are folks like Sonia Chang-Diaz and Jamie Eldridge in the Senate. Dan Wolf has the rare private sector executive/public sector legislative combo, but his abortive 2014 race left a lot to be desired. I’d still keep an eye on him too. Any of those five would be electable progressives capable of beating Baker and governing after they win.
Great points from jcohn88. We can have the best candidates in the world, but unless his negatives go up significantly before 2018, Baker could face Big Papi & still beat him 60-40.
The most interesting never heard of stat is among Republicans they have apparently all heard of Warren, but 3% have not heard of a Governor from their own party.
consistently report that one percent of the electorate have never heard of Hillary. I think there are a lot of people who like to goof on pollsters.
…which says that in any poll, no matter how outrageous the statement you can get 1% of the respondents to say they agree with it.
I wonder how many of that 1% are people with limited English utility due to age, other backgrounds, or communication challenges. I wouldn’t put all 1% due to addled wits — I think a fair bit may be people trying to be polite who don’t quite understand the question.
Fact is, people don’t care about politics the way that we do. I’m sure many of us couldn’t name the NBA MVP, most famous Kardashian, or Fortune 500 CEO who’s inflating his stock price this week.
…between campaigns and the electorate.
In the absence of tangible – and embedded-on-the-ground and ongoing contact between voters and political operations (I include those operating on behalf of candidates), a small percentage of “never heard ofs” is a statistical certainty.
More often than not, a majority of these respondents are honestly unaware of the given person’s existence.
is that both Baker and Warren are popular in Massachusetts right now. Warren has achieved that popularity by taking strong, progressive stances on economic and banking issues in Congress. Baker has achieved his popularity by avoiding political mistakes or scandals so far in office. There have been no stories about office drapes. That do-nothing and avoid-scandal approach is a route to at least temporary popularity.
I’m surprised there isn’t a head-to-head matchup question in the poll between Warren and Baker. But in any event, I think the favorability numbers mean very little at this stage.
he hadn’t had the opportunity to exercise leadership controls with this past winter’s crises? Would he be fighting a legislature that saw no reason to go along with him, absent public pressure brought on by a transportation meltdown? Sometimes clouds have sliver linings.
I’m afraid that it might be a mistake to write it off as “new car” or temporary. I hope that’s right but I’m concerned that he may be one of those people to whom the negative stuff just doesn’t stick. I’m still surprised that the “fish story” got very little traction. The Democrats in the state sure don’t seem to have a plan of attack against Baker.