Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Map of Trump support from NY Times

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Maps from the NY Times that provide insights into where Trump is finding his support, along with some interesting analysis.

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  1. ….are REGISTERED DEMOCRATS part of the statistics on Republican voters?

    If Democrats are keeping the poll numbers high, it will be a big surprise when actual REGISTERED REPUBLICANS get to the ballot box!

    • The data is from “self-identified Republican voters”. The GOP has been pandering to racists and nativists for decades. Donald Trump plays those riffs like Jimi Hendrix and Stevie Ray Vaughan played theirs.

      The only ballot box that “actual REGISTERED REPUBLICANS” will affect is the one used in GOP primaries. I think few will be surprised if Mr. Trump does not prevail — many (of all political persuasions) will be relieved.

      I think the reported sample is reasonable, though — “registered Democrats who vote Republican” have been a staple of GOP political strategy for a very long time (at least since the demise of the Dixiecrat Party).

      • and surveys support that point. If you look at who votes in most primaries (and other things like special elections) it’s really the hardcore (by that I mean lifelong) Republicans that show up. Unenrolled/Independent who vote R don’t. They don’t consider it their election. I’ve seen how the actual lists break down.

        Note that in the Markey vs Gomez election, if the MA Republicans got 100% of their 11% to show up, Gomez would have won. Getting out your vote is #1 in a primary. Trump can’t do that, and these people aren’t going to show up on their own.

    • From Ed Kilgore

      To understand what Cohn has found, however, you have to look past the headline I suspect editors imposed on him: “Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporter: A Certain Kind of Democrat.” In the second paragraph, Cohn does indeed report: “His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats.” But you have to read far, far down into the piece to understand the limited meaning of that startling data point:

      Registered Democrats make up just 8 percent of self-identified Republicans in the states with party registration, according to the Civis data. And Mr. Trump still leads, and leads comfortably, among higher-turnout voters and registered Republicans.

      So the headline is based on a triple-loaded statistic: Exclude states with no party registration (e.g., much of the South), and focus only on the small minority of self-identified Republicans who are registered as Democrats, and Trump does better (43 percent) than he does among self-identified Republicans who are registered Republican (again, only in states with party registration), who give him 29 percent of his support. The natural inference from the headline — that Trump supporters are typically Democrats — is neither asserted by Cohn nor supported by the Civis data.

      You make a good point, porcupine, because NY & Florida are closed primaries. Trump can not assemble a decent field operation in time to change the registration of these voters. He’ll lose delegates. He’s going to be like those football teams that rack up big yardage but not enough points to win the games.

      • …that Trump is using these voters in closed primary states.

        When they are turned away on primary day because they are not properly registered, Trump will use this as ‘evidence’ that the Establishment cheated in order to justify his 3rd party run. And given his relationship with his former Senator, this may have the plan all along. (and pleeze don’t get all ‘oooohhh, she would NEVER o such thing…we all know she would do damn near anything)

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