With Super Tuesday voting starting less than 24 hours from now, I thought it might be helpful to put together in one place some of the key numbers for tomorrow’s primaries and caucuses.
Included below are all of the Democratic and Republican contests that will result in pledged delegates (so Colorado and Wyoming are not included for the Republicans, since the results are non-binding). The poll closing times are listed in Eastern Time, and the polling averages are the latest averages as reported by RealClearPolitics. A caveat: the polling for some of the states is old — in a couple cases, the “average” is really just one poll a month ago. Other states, like Texas and Massachusetts, have much fresher and presumably more accurate polling. American Samoa has had no polling at all, so who knows what will happen with those 6 delegates (the caucus voting there takes place in a bar — seriously).
All of the contests tomorrow allocate delegates proportionally, but several states require a candidate to reach a certain percentage of the overall vote in order to receive statewide delegates. This percentage is noted under the “Cutoff” column. Note that candidates who do not reach this overall percentage may still receive delegates if they do well in particular congressional districts, but will not receive any of the delegates allocated on a statewide basis. Long story short, candidates really need to hit those benchmarks if they want to have a good day. The Democrats also have cutoffs (typically 15%), but neither candidate should have a problem reaching that percentage, so I didn’t include them below. (The one exception might be Clinton in Vermont, which does have a 15% threshold, and Bernie is dominating there).
As the polling averages indicate, tomorrow’s terrain is favorable for both Clinton and Trump. Clinton currently has the polling lead in all but one of the states tomorrow, though Massachusetts and Oklahoma are very close. Trump is leading in 8 of the 11 states, though he certainly has a shot at a 11-state sweep.
Thanks.
For MA it’s 15%.
I hadn’t included them because the cutoffs are all the same on the Democratic side (15%), and because with only two candidates they are unlikely to matter (except possibly for Vermont).
For the sake of completeness, however, I updated the table to include the cutoffs.