I’m terrible at this myself, but since nobody else had started this thread I figured I would. What are your predictions for NH, in terms of percentage of the vote for each candidate for both primaries? Personally I’m thinking 54-46% favoring Sanders with Trump ahead in the GOP, but not by quite as much as latest polls indicate. Rubio may sink a bit with Bush, Kasich, and Christie fighting for second and Cruz not really in the mix this time.
Please share widely!
This is a bit of a challenge, as the independent vote could flow either way, which would have the greatest impact for Sanders and Kasich. The biggest news tomorrow night is that Chris Christie stuck a fork in Marco Rubio.
Democrats:
Sanders 58
Clinton 42
Republicans
Trump 33
Cruz 16
Kasich 15
Bush 11
Rubio 10
Christie 9
Others 6
Democrats:
Sanders: 56%
Clinton: 44%
No surprises here. On to Nevada for both candidates.
Republicans:
Trump: 27%
Cruz: 18%
Kaisch: 14%
Rubio: 14%
Bush: 12%
Christie: 8%
Fiorina: 4%
Carson: 3%
Trump under-performs again, Cruz over-performs again, but the big story is Rubio slipping to fourth just a bit behind Kaisch, who does better than expected. Bush does OK enough to continuing soldiering on, though the voices calling for him to drop out grow louder. Christie and Fiorina drop out shortly after the results become clear.
Democrats
Sanders 57%
Clinton 43%
I’m going with the polls on this one, now that the O’Malley factor is gone.
Republicans:
Trump 29% Under-performed in Iowa compared to polling
Rubio 22% more endorsements, betting the bad debate wont affect him
Cruz 16% Even though it’s a lefty state, Cruz outperformed polling in Iowa and might do it again
Kasich 13% Will do better here than Iowa, but is it enough?
Bush 8% Bush will drop out after this, can’t differentiate himself from Christie and Kasich
Christie 4% Did well in the debate, but low in polls. Will voters shift there vote up to someone more popular?
Carson 4% Don’t count out Carson yet. He also outperformed the polls in Iowa. Even after the weird debate incident he won’t be last.
Fiorina 3% the perception of being in last, will cause voters to abandon ship. Self fulfilling prophecy.
This one scares me as I think you may be correct and I am most afraid of Rubio arising out of the GOP rubble. He would likely choose a political-cultural star as VP to make himself look normal, a scary thought.
Kasich got second place.
…that polls open in just about 3.5 hours in Dixville Notch, where the couple dozen voters cast their votes and close the polls within a few minutes.
Democrats:
Sanders: 51
Clinton: 49
She’s the comeback kid.
Republicans:
Trump: 27
Kasich: 19
Rubio: 17
Christie: 13
Cruz: 12
Jeb: 6
Others: 6
D:
Sanders 59%
Clinton 41%
which smarts for her, but she is ready to do her comeback in the South. (That trip to Flint was very smart work.)
R: My general take is that nearly everyone underperforms expectations, which is pathetic because there is such a low bar. Kasich meets expectations, but low bar. Oh and everyone claims victory.
Trump 26
Rubio 17
Cruz 13
Kasich 12
Christie 9
Bush 8
Fiorina 5
Carson 2
Flint was very smart politics. She got the lead on most news outlets, and everybody in NH has already met her, too many times.
Sanders: 53
Clinton: 47
Trump: 27
Cruz: 16
Kasich: 16
Christie: 15
Rubio: 12
Bush: 9
Others: 5
Sanders 59
Clinton 41
Trump 30
Cruz 16
Kasich 16
Bush 14
Christie 13
Fiorin 7
Carson 3
Sanders 60
Clinton 40
Trump 35
Kasich 20
Bush 15
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Others 3
Fred Rich LaRiccia
It does not work here since nobody is posting your numbers. They are just junk to make it look like an HRC thumping in NH is not as bad as your faked number. Let’s face it, Bill really f-ed up with his screed yesterday. It has gone viral, part of the Clinton smear machine. Folks in NH don’t like that junk.
Plus your numbers on the GOP side look like throwing darts at the Boston Globe op-ed page.
Rather than insulting another BMGer as Charley just reminded us is not cool, how about just posting your own darn predictions or leave my diary alone entirely?!
60 – 40 on the Dem side??? Gimme a break. Leave it to you to defend the obvious spin.
I don’t need to predict. I am here to shoot down garbage politics.
Yes, it is a meaningless parlor game among political junkies – lighten up!
I know what is a parlor game. We had one before the Super Bowl yesterday. Fred’s spin was pure bull pucky and I called it while I was laughing at its transparency. No need for me to lighten up, as you whine.
There has not been a poll showing a 60-40 split in a long while. HRC clearly has the ground game. The only way NH turns 60 – 40 is if the voters are so offended by Bill’s nasty speech that they throw her aside. He has always been a self-serving person and he demonstrated his willingness to sacrifice HRC with his ugly words yesterday.
I am not sure that 60-40 would be a big enough win to alter the arithmetic over the next few weeks, which at this point does not seem very favorable to Sanders.
The Democratic primary in NH is something of a boring sideshow to the Wrestlemania XXX going on next door–will Rubio emerge as the “sane” guy or flame out? To me, the real question is whether the independents abandon the boring, pre-determined Dem race in order play in the exciting race, and will that inflate or deflate the Sanders total?
I think rcmauro has the best Democratic spread, I decided to say it was a little closer to cover the other side of the spread. But a lot of independents seem to be breaking Kasich’s way, and even a decent number of Democrats (who ultimately can’t vote in the GOP primary up there) and want to stop Trump. Dad’s seriously considering voting in their primary since their race should be a lot more competitive by March 1st. We will see.
You have a very dilated sense of time or read only a very restricted set of polling.
The UML tracking poll had a 56-40 margin yesterday down from 60-30 last Wednesday.
the real results 59% to 39% precent is pretty damn close to Fred’s predictions. He also got Kasich right. Looks like he proved you wrong.
to munch on tonight. But no gloating. It was all in good fun !
Fred Rich LaRiccia
Kasich 3, Trump 2
Sanders 4, Clinton…zero
Spot on prediction of Dixville Notch. You must have your finger on the pulse of northern New Hampshire.
Oh, wait a minute. Your time stamp was after midnight. 😉
There wasn’t a Dixville post at the time. Intended as info, not prediction which is why only 4 candidates named.
Since I have to be different……
Clinton 50
Sanders 49
Independents choose to vote against trump instead of for Sanders.
Trump: 25
Kasich: 24
Christie: 20
Rubio: 15
Cruz: 11
Jeb: 4
Something like Sanders 53 Clinton 47. She might even pull an upset, but for prediction purposes I won’t go that far.
GOP in this order: Trump, Kasich, Bush, Cruz, Rubio.
Trump 28
Kasich 12
Cruz 12
Rubio 11
Christie 10
Bush 9
Fiorina 4
Carson 4
Sanders 56
Clinton 44
You got the Dems order rights, and the first 3 republicans right! So far you are the champ! (third hasn’t been called yet though)
nt
Like in MA the rule in NH is that if you are in line at poll closing you can vote. Some of the locations that officially closed at 7PM not only have long lines of people standing and waiting to vote or same-day register, but some Moderators are counting the line of cars to get into the parking lots as being “in line”, in one case in Merrimack stretching back two miles to US 3. The Moderator dispatched a state trooper in that case to find the end of the vehicle line and drive his cruiser to that point. There is also speculation about how much new voter ID requirements slowed things down, but NH doesn’t strike me as a state with lots of people without drivers licenses.
…at least CNN and MSNBC called it for Sanders and Trump as soon as the official closings at 8PM. I really think they should have held off until all voting has actually concluded.