Yesterday was a good day for Bernie Sanders with a stunning upset in Michigan 50% to 48% of the popular vote. Congratulations to my best friend and Bernie supporter, Terry McGinty, for hitting his 2% margin victory right on the nail !
Bernie won a big battle so why do I believe Hillary Clinton is still going to win this war ? In a word — math. More specifically — delegate math.
A majority of 2175 delegates are needed to win the nomination at the July 25-28 Convention in Philadelphia. All Democratic races are proportional. There are NO winner-take-all races. As of yesterday Hillary has already secured 55% of the delegates needed as compared to 26% for Bernie. And she has won nearly a million more popular votes than Bernie in all the contests held thus far. This includes her 83% popular vote blowout win in Mississippi yesterday. So yesterday, Hillary added 88 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 70.
Here is where the delegate count stands today : SUPER / PLEDGED / TOTAL
CLINTON 432 761 1193
SANDERS 22 547 569
Based on these trends Bernie would have to capture 59% of all future races in order to overtake Hillary. Now THAT would truly be a stunning upset !
Fred Rich LaRiccia
