Instead of #nevertrump, the GOP should be thinking #aftertrump.
Contrary to the fevered dreams of our favorite Willard, it has been clear for months that the Republicans cannot deny the will of the primary electorate and make someone other than Donald Trump the official nominee. Those who expressed that will will revolt, resulting in damage to the party that will require generations to fix.
But, that doesn’t mean that Trump has to be on the ballot come November.
If I were a GOP poobah, I’d sit down with Trump, point out that the principal justification for his candidacy has been his poll numbers and further point out that his poll numbers are dropping through the floor. He’s just not going to win. (At this point, we must suspend the suspicion that he is delusional.) What he needs is a graceful exit.
Convince him to:
- Take on an eminence-grise as a running mate
- Lay low until the convention
- Accept the nomination in a fairly traditional convention in Cleveland
- Invent some reason to bow out before Labor Day
The eminence-grise would have to be a (relatively) non-controversial, down-the-middle Republican, willing to take one for the team. Hatch, Cornyn, Kirk, Portman. Someone who could maybe stop the bleeding down ticket.
Announce that the four weeks leading up to the convention will be spent building the team that will launch the campaign from the convention. He will be speaking less and managing more. He doesn’t have much of an organization, so it’s credible.
Have a nice, party-focused convention, giving Trump his rock-star moment.
A few weeks later, invent a reason to bow out. I love the party so much, I wouldn’t want to do anything that will harm it. Having first accepted the nomination, he will inoculate the GOP from complaints that they ignored the results of the primaries (and make sure the nominee isn’t Ted Cruz.). Everyone will see it for what it is, a recognition that he’s going to get slaughtered. But, and this is the upside for Trump, he won’t actually get slaughtered. He can spin it any way he wants.
The eminence-grise runs out the campaign clock with a very vanilla GOP campaign, minimizing the damage to the Ayottes of the world. Stem the losses.
It won’t happen, but this is the moment. The poll number suggestion total humiliation. And, five will get you ten that it’s going to get worse.
Updated: the essential Charlie Pierce has a little bit on Trump’s true goal: TrumpTV.
…then I owe SomervilleTom a drink! (Remember the bet we made at the last Stammtisch?) But I really don’t see how Trump would ever bow out, because his ego is bigger than the wall he wants Mexico to pay for!
I was about to ask whether you were paying attention. đŸ™‚
He wouldn’t want to endure an inevitable whupping.
Either way, the RNC would have to meet to nominate a replacement (which maybe you knew, but I didn’t see the step mentioned above).
I would think the rules committee could say the VP nominee would assume the presidential nominee in the event the presidential nominee was unwilling or unable to perform the duties, yada, yada, yada.
…Article III, Section 1c of the charter charges the National Committee with filling vacancies in the nominations for President or Vice President of the United States. This point is reiterated in the party bylaws. I assume the GOP has similar provisions.
Dad says that Trump bows out after his first year in office if he gets elected with the VP “in” on the deal. It’ll be fascinating to see how he vets candidates and who would be willing to be associated with such a ticket.
…is that he begins his speech the last night of the convention with, “I’ve had fun, but I do not accept your nomination.”
What on EARTH makes you think Trump cares about the Republican Party one way or another?
He doesn’t care one whit about the GOP. But, I think he’d be happy to put on a fig leaf of concern for the party as he slips off stage left to avoid the national embarrassment of an electoral drubbing.
I think that there is at least some possibility of this happening, but not at the suggestion of party leaders, or out of some notion of self-sacrifice for the future good of the team. I think that there is a strong possibility that, if the summertime polling picture looks bad, and the pressure mounts, he quits in a fit of pique, unexpectedly and without planning.
Like Ross Perot in 1992.
I don’t think Mr. Trump will “quit”, per se. I think he’ll seize on some “outrageous” act or decision and claim that he “has no choice”.
His publicity machine will say he has been forced out of the race, and he will exhort his supporters to take to the streets — while continuing to buy Trump products and watch Trump broadcasts.
Effort to hold the House and Senate, the plausibility of this scenario would be very distressing indeed. If the distress becomes acute, I think there will be a sudden interest in confirming to SCOTUS nominee in September.
… of Trump having got so far underlines the wisdom of the founders in choosing a representative form of government. Perhaps a little less deference to the ‘will of the primary electorate’ and a little more faith in the Republic is in order. I do suppose that the, more-or-less, earnest will of the people — even if it has resulted in the nomination of Donald Trump — is better than the will of the Koch Brothers… So there’s that. I guess I go back to the question, was the GOP supposed to implode some other way? Was it suppose to disintegrate calmly, politely and cleanly? They made themselves one helluva shit sandwich. They can try to call it something else, or pretend it isn’t what it is, but what it is, is a shit sandwich. And they have to eat it. They can have mustard or ketchup on it. But they still have to eat it.
Regardless, I don’t see your scenario playing out, for a variety of reasons. I think the GOP expectation is to continue to play that concerto with a pretense of serenity as the ship goes down. Their slim hope, such as it is, will be in the VP position: I expect they’ll try to get Trump to go, not with some sort of eminence-grise, but with some sort of insider who’ll quietly pull the levers behind the scenes much as Cheney did for Bush Jr and Bush Sr did for Reagan. But even if they succeed in getting just such a franken-Cheney on the ticket, and they go on to win, I doubt very much that, in the long term, the resulting chaos will be any more to their liking.
Winning a primary =! winning an election, and the chances of there being a crazy pants executive leader is why the founders invested so much power in the other branches.
As much as a President Donald Trump is terrifying, it is increasingly unlikely and in the off-chance he wins, it’s even more unlikely the legislature and courts will sit idly by when he goes off into crazy land.
Even in the worst case scenario of a Trump general election win, the Republic will survive a Donald Trump presidency.
We survived 8 years of George W. Bush, after all.
Bush was mature and would never say or think the outrageous things that come out of Trump’s mouth. I know he did plenty many here, myself included, didn’t like, but at least he took governing seriously.
There were lots of reports that the W White House (like the Nixon White House, actually) was obsessed with politics and bored with policy. Bush took winning elections seriously — more seriously than Trump perhaps, but governing, no.
Donald Trump is a dangerously crazy lunatic. For all his many faults, George W. Bush was not bat-shit crazy.
When George W. Bush (or his puppet-master) decided that destroying the most powerful secular government in the Middle East, and most important obstacle to the spread of government-sponsored Islamic religious extremism, he at least felt the need to first lie to the Congress and the public.
I think President Donald Trump would simply order the Pentagon to start shooting — I think Mr. Trump might even simply order them to begin a nuclear exchange.
I have ZERO confidence that our “checks and balances” would react quickly and effectively enough to stop such lunacy. There is NO historical precedent in America that I know of, and historical precedent of other nations suggests that such scenarios are exactly how dictators and tyrants take power.
I do not share this sanguine view of the stability of America. I think Donald Trump — and even more so, the SUPPORTERS of Mr. Trump — are a grave existential threat to America as we know it.
This is different from liking the results, but he came out with ideas for better or worse and he certainly did not run his mouth on an hourly basis about people who he saw as either political enemies or demographically the other. Remember, HE went out of his way to say we were not at war with Islam.
I realize I’m running against your strongly ingrained impulse to defend.
…that politics took precedence over policy in WH discussions, and Nixon’s enemies list is pretty common knowledge (though between opening China and proposing solutions on the environment, work place safety, and even health care I would say Nixon did in fact take governing seriously). That does not make either one of them nearly as awful as Donald Trump. Back to W. when I see those pictures of him from our differently winged friends with the caption, “Miss me yet?” I think, not as President, but as an adult voice in the GOP I actually kind of do.
I rather think that was quite my point. Under the scenario I presented, whereby the GOP gets a ‘franken-Cheney’ to work behind the scenes, a President The Donald off in crazy land, will engender chaos and allow all manner of underhanded and un-looked-for consequences. We did much the same here in the CommonWealth as Bill Weld’s administration stretched itself very thinly over some twelve years, six of them without him, and the State Legislature, and particularly the House, extended it’s reach and influence and has yet to withdraw it…
We said much the same after Nixon, and again after Reagan…. too. And so we did. Notwithstanding the fact that President Obama has only thinly patched some of the cracks, so ‘survival’ is not assured, you’re overlooking the pattern: Nixon was bad, Reagan was worse and George W was the worst yet… (and I argued that candidates McCain in ’08 and Rmoney in ’12 would have raced past that bottom) And so what’s next: Is Trump the end of the line? Or the beginning of the end? You don’t think, do you, that Ted Cruz is going to see how ‘successful’ Trump was and refuse to start adopting some of the tactics? Or do you imagine that some, presently no-name, GOP Senator or Governor IS NOT going to make a Trump-style run in 2020 or 2024 with a little more charm and slightly less batshit?
For all his personal quirks, Trump is not an electoral anomaly. He is the next link in a progression (regression?) of Republican anger turning to rage turning to… who knows what… It’s not going to melt away and dissolve into the ether without it attends some casual destruction and chaos. Rage doesn’t work that way.
I enthusiastically agree with all this.
Here’s my short summary: Donald Trump is a demagogue, produced by a party that has based its existence on demagoguery and deceit since the administration of Richard Nixon.
As you suggest, Mr. Trump was not the first and will not be the last.
The Republicans have just experienced the mass exit of voters away from conventional “we know best what’s good for you” candidates. They are not going away. Yes, Hillary will win this one and maybe the next one, but maybe not. If the middle class continues on it’s current slide for another four years, how does Hillary keep it together? The Tea Party was a reaction to Obama. What will the reaction be to Hillary if we see four years of decline in the middle class after her election?
My hope is that she sees this and takes bold progressive steps to rescue the middle class. If not, she’s a one term wonder because in four years, those Trump supporters are still going to be there and the progressives in the Democratic Party are going to have a tough time mustering the enthusiasm to put her back in the White House.
Donald Trump supporters scare me more than Donald Trump.
The hatred, misogyny, ignorance, arrogance, racism, bullying, and so on that Donald Trump panders to and thrives on is toxic to the kind of America most of us want.
In my view, the specific policies pursued by the administration of Hillary Clinton are less important than the need for America to collectively begin to turn our culture away from these toxic attitudes and back towards the values that characterized us during our “golden era” from — from FDR through Nixon (or perhaps Reagan).
In my view, when the bullies and thugs in the schoolyard take over the “school”, the America as I know and love it is dead.
Josh Marshall had an interesting point about the Trump winner-loser thing. Trump’s winner status during the Republican primary season was buoyed by his consistently outpolling his opponents substantially. He kept pointing to that. No that the general election season has begun his poll numbers have not been good and have shown some signs of decline even. So the winner aura is on the wane. He no longer looks inevitable.
The other thing about Trump is that part of his fame and celebrity is his wealth: he’s famous because he’s rich and he’s also tried to be rich because he’s famous. (Trump steaks, anyone?) The brand is tied to his person. An ignominious defeat Nov 2016 won’t do his business much good, and there are already some businesses Trump properties because of what Trump has said in the campaign. In other words, this campaign is not good for his business either. It’s unclear where this all goes. At no point, though, were Stevenson, McGovern, Carter, or Mondale under anything other than political pressure as they headed into losing elections.
In Trump’s case, it may mean he won’t be able to afford his next wife.
If Trump runs and stays on his present course, he goes down in history as one of the biggest losers ever. If he drops out, whoever runs in his place does not stand a chance and will be just trying to make political capital for the future.
Question: Since her victory is about as certain as the sun rising tomorrow, why does Hillary not move more to the left (where the Democrats used to be), pick up the Sanders supporters with ease, and win an election with historical numbers?
What does she have to lose by endorsing a $15 minimum wage, a path to Medicare for all, higher taxes on the rich to save Social Security? Seems to me that with the Republican Party looking like the last few minutes of “Animal House”, there’s plenty of low hanging fruit, there for the taking.
But, to your point, her instincts always seem to point right, not left.
unless Hillary Clinton makes some unforced errors which is possible but the greater possibility is that Trump continues to make unforced errors in rapid succession. Her instincts always seem to point to the safe option, nothing bold, “money in the bank” sort of thing (pun intended), but I do wish someone on her staff would push her to be more confident, relax, and stay on course. In other words, be like Elizabeth Warren.
..becasuse she doesn’t BELIEVE those things. And she is not going to.
You need to acknowledge that to yourself when you vote for her.
Seems that she believes in whatever ….and that’s just what we have to deal with and it’s nothing new with her or many in political office. If Democrats can stand together and tell her under NO uncertain terms that we want Citizens United out, we want a very real path to single payer “European Style” heath care, and we want higher taxes on the wealthy to save Social Security and more, she’ll believe in that. If we just assume she’s with us on that and ignore her cabinet selection and her other appointments once in office, we will wind up with Obama II, not awful, but we can get so much more. It’s up to us.
Do you want to share with us what things you think Donald Trump believes? Have you been a Clinton family confidante for years, so that you actually KNOW what she does and does not believe? Or are you, instead, just repeating the same vicious attacks that you hear other people making?
I find your lecturing of ANYBODY about what they “need to acknowledge” to themselves when they vote more than bit tiresome.
I wonder what YOU will acknowledge to YOURSELF when you vote for whomever you choose. Will you be voting for Mr. Trump? Will you join me in voting for Ms. Clinton?
If you choose “none of the above”, or write in some arbitrary name, it seems to me that you too need to acknowledge what THAT means.
You self-identify as member of the GOP. I wonder how you get off lecturing any potential Hillary Clinton voter — especially regarding sincerity and honesty — given the candidate your party has chosen.
….I surmise what a candidate believes by listening to what they say and comparing it with their actions.
Is the point of your screed to claim that Clinton DOES hold similar beliefs to Warren regarding single payer, financial regulations, etc, as John was speaking about, based upon your confidential relationship?
Elizabeth Warren is not in this race. She is not a candidate.
I make no claim about the beliefs of Ms. Clinton beyond what is available to all of us. I made no claims about Ms. Warren. It was you who asserted some sort of special knowledge about Ms. Clinton, not me.
Ms. Clinton’s proposals, policy statements, and history convince me that she is far more reasonable than Mr. Trump.
The Democrats will line up and vote for the Democratic candidate, by and large. The Democratic candidate is qualified, measured in her actions, and has a long and open history within government. The Democratic candidate will, by and large, support bread and butter Democratic values.
What will porcupine do? I ask because the Republican candidate is clearly unqualified, bombastic in actions, and has no clear record as a leader, public, private, or governmental.(fn 1) Nobody has any idea if the Republican candidate will, by and large, support bread and butter Republican values because his stances have been all over the map, with no steady change in one particular direction or the other, or any rationale explaining his positions.
So porc, what’s your plan?
fn 1 Yes, he’s been CEO of Trump Inc. But we really have no idea what that means exactly — his actions as CEO haven’t been transparent, nor have they needed to be.
Who agrees to take the nomination in July – essentially coming in at QB with ball on their own 10 yard line, 3rd & 26, down 7, with a minute to go in the 4th quarter?
Historical honor, no real shame in losing. I’d do it if I were a Republican.
No one is going to tell Donald Trump what to do. Donald Trump will do what Donald Trump wants to do.
If the GOP tries to get him to step down, they’re just going to actually make him feel more invested in running.
Want to get him to want to bow out? Ignore him. He’ll get bored. See how his brand has been tarnished, and see the polls making it increasingly likely that he’ll be blown out by modern-record margins.
With someone as pathologically narcissistic as he is… you have to make him want it to be his own choice.