Quite a pair of maps this week from Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com:
And:
His conclusion:
[I]t seems fair to say that, if Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him. I took a look at how men and women split their votes four years ago, according to polls conducted in November 2012. On average, Mitt Romney led President Obama by 7 percentage points among men, about the same as Trump’s 5-point lead among men now. But Romney held his own among women, losing them by 8 points, whereas they’re going against Trump by 15 points.
If anyone has any guidance as to what those maps would look like in Massachusetts (which, let it be noted, is sensibly blue in both), I’d love to see it.
Please share widely!
The woman-only map is how it should look with both genders voting given how horrible the DUMB candidate is.
Good to see that Massachusetts men know what’s what:)
Some male Trump supporters have started using #repealthe19th.
In a less polarized electorate, the woman’s map is likely what the actual map would look like. I am interested in seeing whether the voting rates are determined more by men rejecting a female commander in chief or by women rejecting a creep in chief. One wonders if we would be seeing a similar gap if we corrected for Trump. Romney got half the vote deficit with woman that Trump is getting, but he also was running against a man.
And to Bob’s point, I asked my contact at 538 for the state by state breakdown and they may update the site to include that!
As for repealthe19th, it’s no surprise considering conservative AGs and justices have been working really hard to repeal the 15th.
Comment of the day! Loved the last line.
Dems have a 108 electoral vote advantage over the Republicans, and Texas is more in play than at any time in recent memory.