I have kept up with the statistical side of this race via Electoral-Vote.com and fivethirtyeight.com, so I thought I would share their “final” prognostications (though 538 may actually update a few more times). Let’s see how they do. I list each state with number of electors. The next column is today’s Electoral-Vote spread with projected winner first, followed by other major nominee, followed by Johnson. The last column will be 538 with projected winner with percent chance of winning.
Alabama (9) – EV: Trump 54-36-6; 538: Trump 99.8
Alaska (3) – EV; Trump 47-31-13; 538: Trump 76.9
Arizona (11) – EV: Trump 46-42-6; 538: Trump 70.1
Arkansas (6) – EV: Trump 55-34-6; 538: Trump 99.6
California (55) – EV: Clinton 55-33-5; 538: Clinton >99.9
Colorado (9) – EV: Clinton 44-41-7; 538: Clinton 75.6
Connecticut (7) – EV: Clinton 51-37-7; 538: Clinton 95.9
Delaware (3) – EV: Clinton 49-39-7; 538: Clinton 88.6
District of Columbia (3) – EV: Clinton 88-7-2; 538 Clinton >99.9
Florida (29) – EV: Clinton 47-45-3; 538: Clinton 53.9
Georgia (16) – EV: Trump 48-44-6; 538: Trump 81.2
Hawai’i (4) – EV: Clinton 52-29-9; 538: Clinton 99.0
Idaho (4) – EV: Trump 47-29-7; 538: Trump 99.4
Illinois (20) – EV: Clinton 53-38-5; 538: Clinton 98.4
Indiana (11) – EV: Trump 50-37-8; 538: Trump 97.6
Iowa (6) – EV: Trump 45-40-6; 538: Trump 70.6
Kansas (6) – EV: Trump 52-36-8; 538: Trump 97.4
Kentucky (8) – EV: Trump 54-36-4; 538: Trump 99.7
Louisiana (8) – EV: Trump 52-38-4; 538: Trump 99.3
Maine (4) – EV: Clinton 47-41-6; 538: Clinton 79.5 (awards electors by CD)
Maryland (10) – EV: Clinton 60-29-6; 538: Clinton >99.9
Massachusetts (11) – EV: Clinton 56-28-8; 538: Clinton 99.9
Michigan (16) – EV: Clinton 45-42-7; 538: Clinton 76.7
Minnesota (10) – EV: Clinton 46-37-10; 538: Clinton 85.0
Mississippi (6) – EV: Trump 50-41-4; 538: Trump 98.2
Missouri (10) – EV: Trump 51-38-5; 538: Trump 96.6
Montana (3) – EV: Trump 53-31-10; 538: Trump 96.3
Nebraska (5) – EV: Trump 52-34-8; 538: Trump 98.1 (awards electors by CD)
Nevada (6) – EV: Trump 46-45-5; 538: Clinton 56.0
New Hampshire (4) – EV: Clinton 45-42-5; 538: Clinton 69.1
New Jersey (14) – EV: Clinton 52-39-4; 538: Clinton 96.9
New Mexico (5) – EV: Clinton 44-40-11; 538: Clinton 80.5
New York (29) – EV: Clinton 55-33-5; 538: Clinton 99.8
North Carolina (15) – EV: Clinton 47-46-3; 538: Clinton 53.6
North Dakota (3) – EV: Trump 57-29-10; 538: Trump 97.9
Ohio (18) – EV: Trump 46-44-4; 538: Trump 63.9
Oklahoma (7) – EV: Trump 56-32-10; 538: Trump >99.9
Oregon (7) – EV: Clinton 51-35-7; 538: Clinton 93.3
Pennsylvania (20) – EV: Clinton 47-42-4; 538: Clinton 75.3
Rhode Island (4) – EV: Clinton 49-36-7; 538: Clinton 92.1
South Carolina (9) – EV: Trump 46-44-6; 538: Trump 89.1
South Dakota (3) – EV: Trump 53-31-12; 538: Trump 95.0
Tennessee (11) – EV: Trump 49-40-6; 538: Trump 97.9
Texas (38) – EV: Trump 48-39-6; 538: Trump 94.8
Utah (6) – EV: Trump 38-28-4; 538: Trump 84.0 (Evan McMillan could be a factor here.)
Vermont (3) – EV: Clinton 60-27-6; 538: Clinton 98.0
Virginia (13) – EV: Clinton 47-42-4; 538: Clinton 84.9
Washington (12) – EV: Clinton 51-36-6; 538: Clinton 97.5
West Virginia (5) – EV: Trump 57-27-8; 538: Trump 99.8
Wisconsin (10) – EV: Clinton 46-41-5; 538: Clinton 83.1
Wyoming (3) – EV: Trump 62-23-8; 538: Trump 99.0
Nevada appears to be the only one the stats disagree on, though Electoral-Vote says it probably will go Clinton as well. She may get a couple other states that are right on the edge, but seem to favor Trump due to new registrants who have not been polled. We’re now less than six hours away from polls opening in Dixville Notch!
The Nevada stuff is interesting now that we have reports of some decent early voting data that seems to indicate a pretty solid lead for Clinton – to the point where Trump needs to win the remaining voters with double digits tomorrow to have a chance. The polling info there seems to be less relevant than the actual voting data we have now (I get that these sites don’t do that).