“Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
–Philip Tetlock
Corruption in the White House isn’t new, but never has it been this bad. At least in modern times.
Tax dodging? Sure.
Graft? Definitely.
Lying to investigators? Check.
Obstruction of justice? Probably.
A seditious conspiracy to collude with a hostile foreign power involving multiple members of a presidential administration? Not so much.
The wrongdoing is there.
If you can’t see it, you either haven’t been paying attention, or you’ve been hanging out on the right wing news sites that are special pleading for evidence. It may be hard to connect all the dots through the smoke, but there’s enough heat to know there’s a fire burning in the White House.
Looking at the severity of the Trump Administration’s apparent crimes, I see a strong likelihood that Trump’s tenure will end in the next two years. If he doesn’t resign, he’ll be impeached. As bad as impeachment sounds, we should remember that it only removes an official from office. If Trump resigns, there’s a strong possibility that he’ll face prosecution for money laundering and probably more.
There is little that is certain in politics. We can, however, try to predict events by identifying as many situational factors as possible, remaining intellectually humble, and remaining open to changing our predictions. (There are some rules of the thumb for making intelligent predictions; I won’t belabor them here. If you want to know more, read the book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock).
Here are the Trump-ending factors as I see them:
- The “high crimes and misdemeanors” are there. And unlike Watergate, there are a lot of people directly involved in colluding with the Russians, which has weakened our national security. There is also a lot of criminal activity to be exposed; Trump has been involved in money laundering for decades. As the criminals are exposed, as the nature and degree of their crimes is revealed, removing Trump from office will be on the minds of many.
- President Trump is already historically unpopular. His poll numbers have been steadily dropping. A portion of his supporters may stick by him, but there won’t be enough people who voted for him to pressure enough Republicans in Congress to oppose impeachment.
- As Speaker Paul Ryan tries to remind everyone, the GOP still has an agenda they want to push through. As a major distraction, Trump is already an impediment to that unpopular agenda. If the GOP continues to press for its agenda, they will eventually want to jettison Trump.
- The 2018 Midterms are a deadline for the Republicans. They could hang on to Congress or take over the Senate, but the chances are not looking good. At the moment, Cook Political Report estimates the chance of Democrats taking over Congress at 50%. Betting on the flip of a coin is not good politics. If Democrats actually take Congress, they could decide on impeachment without the Republicans. If Dems took Congress and the GOP kept control of the Senate, there would be immense pressure on the GOP’s senatorial caucus.
- The Democratic base won’t let up. It is already calling for Trump’s impeachment. Dems don’t have the votes in Congress right now, and the President’s approval rating hasn’t sunk far enough yet, but these calls will increase and intensify. As Diane Feinstein is finding out, the base doesn’t like its officials to be soft on Trump.
If Trump resigns, there will still be a battle over indicting him. Multiple investigations will turn up his money laundering shenanigans, and he could be indicted by the State of New York. If collusion between Trump and the Russians turns out to have happened and there are witnesses, he be facing federal charges for espionage.
If Trump leaves office, Vice President Mike Pence would be next in line. This itself might be problematic. It’s very likely Pence has been involved in the coverup of Michael Flynn’s misdeeds. If the GOP believes that Pence could become president, they might be even more interest in seeing Trump make a quick exit.
Great post-and I am coming around to your perspective. So is Matthew Yglesias and even some conservatives like Ross Douthat.
I think #4 is the likeliest scenario. #1 takes a really long time. A good case is Blago. We had the smoking gun and it still took the legislature nearly a year to impeach him, and it took the feds almost 3 years to successfully prosecute him. And we had him on tape. The Holt testimony damages Trump in the court of public opinion-but it’s not sufficient proof for an actual court. So it’ll likely take the special prosecutor a few years to uncover all the malfeasance which actually gives the Republicans a waiting period before having to turn on Trump.
I think they lose the House and then folks like Collins, Toomey, and Portman will start to sing a far more impeachable tune. Until they lose the House they have more to fear from Fox News fed base voters then swing voters. And that Fox fed base is not buying impeachment anytime soon. So this thing will drag out and likely cripple this presidency=but it may not be enough to end it until the Republicans put country before party or are voted out of office. Democrats were given a majority at the expense of a corrupt Republican administration before, let’s hope they don’t blow that opportunity a second time. They must push to impeach.
Not that it matters, but Collins wants to be Governor, not run again for Senate.
Actually it does matter-that explains a lot. She’s been awfully careful not to criticize Trump too harshly and it may be because she wants the LePage voter for that race. I hope she does-Democrats would be competitive for both races if she did that.
In ME, she’d do well to run from Trump as far and as quickly as possible it would seem. Hasn’t LePage won both times with a minority of the vote? Her brand of Republicanism is better suited to try to woo Dem crossovers, and there aren’t many you can say that about anymore.
I think the problem with all this, ironically enough, is that Trump is likely innocent, at least with respect to Russian involvement in the campaign and in the election. I’m fairly certain you’re right about the money laundering, but all of that is, likely, pre-election.
I think Trump is a classic patsy and his biggest crime has been to enable egregiously bad people… people like Bannon and Sessions who are more viciously amoral people than even Trump is… , all of whom are manipulating him and their proximity to him, for their own, utterly mercenary –indeed merciless– designs.
I would not lament so much — would even say he might deserve it, for past sins– except that I don’t think it will end when Trump leaves the White House… whatever the circumstances under which he leaves.
Public evidence–Trump’s statements, the statements of John Brennan, and some leaks–strongly suggest Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice. It’s becoming harder for me to see him as a just patsy. He’s too much of a wannabe tough guy and dealmaker. The Russians, who apparently played Comey on Hillary’s server, would play him like a fiddle. The guy can’t even shut up about top secret intelligence. He’s stupid and ignorant, but he’s also incredibly needy. Money is both his shield and his validation. He wants to be a player like the Russian oligarchs. That’s my thinking, anyway.
I think Trump is *such* a complete patsy, the he does not have the requisite intent. It’s amazing. Trump has, like, reverse superpowers: The very strongest thing about him is the adamantine connection between his stupidity and his credulity towards feckless and crooked associates. There is NO other way to adequately explain Flynn’s brief tenure in the Trump administration. It is this unbreakable bond of complete fail which allows his crooked associates to manipulate him so adroitly.
I don’t think the problem is that Trump is a President who turns out to be crooked. The problem is that Trump should never have been elected President… He shouldn’t even be allowed near the White House on a tour bus…. And, so, if it isn’t ‘obstruction of justice’ that does him in it’ll be something just as bad.
However, focusing on the crimes might be normalizing the extreme dumbing down of the Presidency… a race to the bottom that started in 1980, and not with Trump… Bringing criminal charges against the bull that tore up the china shop sorta presumes the bull had a right, or a reason, to be there in the first place.
A wise consultant once said “Sometimes you have to show people that something is broken before they’ll agree to fix it”.
I like your bull-in-a-china-shop analogy. I think the reason to prosecute the bull anyway is that about 65 million voters need to be shown that a china shop is no place for a bull — even if we dislike the inventory currently on display.
Ever the optimist, my hope is that when those 65 million people who voted for Mr. Trump see how much damage and destruction their votes have caused, they may perhaps agree that bulls should not be allowed in or near china shops.
I believe he’ll declare victory and resign before the midterms.
Some excuse – wife ill, son needs special care – designed to attract sympathy.
GOP retains control of both houses, running against Trump’s legacy.
He might resign, but that won’t prevent him from being indicted.
On the GOP, I’ll believe it when I see it. They’ve been tarred with his brush. Many changed their views of him. More of them voted for these crazy “health care” bills that nobody likes. They are also have been and are going to be phenomenally unproductive owning all three branches. They are calling their own bluff. My money is on a throwing the bums out mentality.
Last week Trump in the Oval Office gave away Israeli intelligence to Russian agents who will pass them on to Iran. Yesterday he gave away nuclear sub positions to a foreign head of state closely aligned to Russia and China. Today he told all of our NATO allies that America does not automatically have their back anymore. How will he endanger our troops and our security tomorrow?
Mike Pence is the worst kind of conservative Christian ideologue, but I am confident he won’t give away troop positions and intel to our enemies nor abandon our allies to our enemies. Trump is already doing this now on a daily basis. We have to either impeach or pursue the 25th Amendment. He cannot continue in this role.
25th amendment is a non-starter for so many reasons. It requires the assent of the presumably loyal VP and Cabinet. Plus, POTUS is allowed to transmit a message to Congress saying he is in fact fit to serve. Disputes on that point are resolved by Congress and it requires 2/3 of each chamber to keep him out.
I mean either of these scenarios is equally a non-starter. But he is leaking intel to Russia, giving away troop positions to foreign leaders aligned with Russia and China, and generally doing a shitty job. Kelly seems to be a Kool Aid drinker, but Mattis can’t be willing to put up with this shit for long. Who knows though-McMaster sold his soul for pennies on the dollar and maybe Mattis will too. This isn’t a good look for the country that’s for sure. Putin is totally taking advantage of our polarized politics to undermine the national interest and the party that has been historically hawkish against him is AWOL.
I think the Pence factor can’t be ignored. If he doesn’t get indicted or impeached himself, then he’s President.
And if you’re Paul Ryan, you’re much better off running against a Trump-damaged Pence than making Pence president.
John Kasich may have the last laugh from the 2016 primary. Only contender totally untainted by defending Trump, and the one who could plausibly be a fallback in 2020.
He can’t beat Trump in a primary, even with investigations, but he could definitely beat a tainted Pence. Either way-he seems to be gearing up for a primary and that’s not a healthy sign for the incumbent. Reagan didn’t launch until late 75′, Kennedy 79′.
I wouldn’t bet too much money on Trump winning renomination NOW, let alone after four years of how the last four months have gone.
If Pence isn’t dirty from the coverup, he’ll could be take Trump’s place. I wouldn’t put a lot of money on his not being complicit.
As a 2020 candidate, he’s a non-starter.