According to Newt Gingrich on Fox News:
The great political surprise of 2018 will be the size of the Republican victory.
After members of the elite media have spent two years savaging President Trump, lying about Republican legislation, and reassuring themselves that Republican defeat was inevitable, the size of the GOP victory in 2018 will be an enormous shock.
It’s been two years since our last big prediction post, a longstanding tradition that becomes more of an adventure as we look toward 2018. Newt Gingrich starts us off with a statistical outlier, and I am sure the beloved readers of BMG will converge on a more realistic view of the year to come.
If you are playing, make your predictions for each of the following categories, be sure to answer (but don’t limit yourself to) the following questions. I will put my responses in the comments.
Massachusetts:
- Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor?
- What is the result (percentage points) of the governor’s election.
- What is the result (percentage points) of the constitutional amendment providing for a “millionaire’s tax?”
National:
- What will be the post-election makeup of the House and Senate?
- Who will be the next Speaker of the House?
- Will Donald Trump be President on December 31, 2018?
- How many people will be indicted and convicted (including guilty pleas) in the Mueller probe?
World:
- What will be the major world event that will dominate the news?
Sports and Entertainment:
- Who will win the AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl?
- How will the Red Sox do with Alex Cora? Who will win the AL, NL, and World Series?
Wild Guesses:
- Go for it!
Massachusetts:
Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor? Jay Gonzalez.
What is the result (percentage points) of the governor’s election. Baker 51 Gonzalez 47 Others 2 – September primary doesn’t give Gonzalez the time necessary to mount a credible campaign.
What is the result (percentage points) of the constitutional amendment providing for a “millionaire’s tax?” Yes 59% No 41% – Federal tax breaks for the rich fuels support for this measure.
Karen Spilka becomes Senate president. The DeLeo speakership inspires a couple of successful primaries against incumbents in leadership, but it isn’t enough to convince the House to change its ways.
Courts rule that Lowell’s at-large voting system unconstitutionally discriminates against minority voters, orders a ward based system for electing city council and school committee.
Tito Jackson launches what will be a successful campaign for an elected school committee in Boston.
National:
What will be the post-election makeup of the House and Senate? Democrats will pick up seats in NV and AZ, but there will be surprises on both sides of the aisle before it settles into a slim 51-49 Democratic majority. House will also be narrowly Democratic, 220-215.
Who will be the next Speaker of the House? I don’t know, but it won’t be Nancy Pelosi. Newly elected Democrats demand significant changes in leadership, use their leverage in a narrow majority to force change.
Will Donald Trump be President on December 31, 2018? Yes – the surprise will be that Pence is more at risk of leaving office in light of Mueller probe.
How many people will be indicted and convicted (including guilty pleas) in the Mueller probe? We are near the end of the guilty plea and cooperating witness cycle, only one more of significance. Trials take time, 8 more indictments, 2 convictions before the end of 2018.
Blue wave flips enough state legislatures and governors to lay a foundation for undoing the 2012 GOP reapportionment.
Forget the folks who seem to be jockeying for 2020. The Democratic nominee will emerge from the 2018 blue wave, someone not currently on the radar.
World:
What will be the major world event that will dominate the news? The conflicts in the Middle East magnify across the Sunni – Shia divide when Sunni nations make their cloaked alliance with Israel more formal and visible.
Sports and Entertainment:
Who will win the AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl? It will be a Minnesota-New England Super Bowl in Minneapolis. It will be just another wacky last minute Patriots win. On the way to the Super Bowl, James Harrison makes the Patriots blowout victory over the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game a game to remember.
How will the Red Sox do with Alex Cora? Who will win the AL, NL, and World Series? The Red Sox and Yankees will have a see-saw race through the year; Yankees prevail but Wild Card Red Sox make it to the ALCS but lose to Cleveland. Indians beat Cubs in World Series.
My annual prediction. I have been listening to Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga sing together, and I will keep repeating the inevitable until it comes true. Thus, I predict once again that Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta fulfills her childhood dream by playing the lead role of a revival on Broadway.
Wild Guesses:
A flock of wild turkeys interfere with the gathering for Brookline Town Meeting.
An empty self-driving car decides autonomously to take a ride on I-93 during rush hour.
I’ll put my own predictions in a separate topline comment, but I wanted to ask about your Lowell prediction. Is there a provision in the VRA or other legislation that says that cities above a certain population must district, because I think every town elects selectmen at-large and nobody gives them a hard time? I think there are political reasons for districting, but I’m not comfortable with “we can’t elect the people we want” as a legal/constitutional argument. As long as every resident has the same right to vote that should be all that matters.
I am not an expert on the legal aspects of the case, but there have been many jurisdictions that were ordered to move from at-large to district representation to allow for minority representation.
At large elections are expensive, and magnify an incumbents advantage because of the large number of voters who need to be contacted across the city.
The Austin City Council had to do it after a court order. Part of the reason Cambridge switched to PR was for minority representation within an all at large model and to avoid wards. Granted, the majority of the Boston at large seats are now occupied by minorities.
Do you know the basis for the order? For things like this I’m much more comfortable if someone can point to specific constitutional or statutory language rather than relying on just a feeling of “it’s not fair” that sounds like a 5-year old stomping his foot and whining.
Which court? SJC or US First District?
And if the latter how long before it makes its way through appeals? And who brings the case, US DOJ?
Apparently the voters of Austin made the change via ballot initiative not court order. Either way, it has been a popular reform that increased minority representation.
I’m never good at this, but what the heck:
MA – nomination is anyone’s game, but I’m confident all three will get through convention. I suspect based on the people involved that Setti Warren has the best caucus/convention operation. I know CW says this is Baker in a walk, but you never know. I’ll go 55-45 in favor of the millionaire’s tax.
US – House will be comfortably Democratic and the Senate barely so (If by some miracle Dems run the table in the Senate the best Dems can do is 57-43 since the GOP is only defending 8 seats.) and Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker if she wants it. Trump will still be President one year from today because I don’t see anything else happening until the Dem majority actually takes effect.
World – I would love to be wrong, but I suspect it will have something to do with DPRK. Also, the German Chancellor may solidify her standing as leader of the free world, which would be ironic given that POTUS got that designation in part for our role in defeating a German Chancellor.
I don’t do sports – sorry.
Massachusetts:
Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor?
Setti Warren. All three make it out of convention. Massie catches last minute fire sapping some support from Gonzalez who comes in second. Mirroring the Berwick sapping of Grossman support in 2014. Warren narrowly wins. 41-36-23 split.
Who will win the other contested Democratic nominations?
I’ll add Zakim beating Galvin 52-48 after a nasty and personal campaign. Tingle winning the LG nomination handedly.
Who will win CD-3 primary?
Juana Mattis with 19% of the vote.
Who will win the Republican Senate nomination?
Kingston in an upset over Diehl after Gomez and Lindstrom drop out. Runs closely with Baker and does better than expected with his suburban coattails. Warren wins 53-47, mirroring result against Brown.
What is the result (percentage points) of the governor’s election.
53-47 Baker over Setti Warren. Closer than expected due to high millennial and minority turnout. 10% of the voters are Baker-Warren and Steve Kozcela and Peter Ubertaccio have a fun time spilling a lot of ink on that.
What is the result (percentage points) of the constitutional amendment providing for a “millionaire’s tax?”
55-45
Other ballot questions:
Trans rights upheld 59-41.
National:
What will be the post-election makeup of the House and Senate?
Dems defend the 12 Trump/D seats while running the table on the 23 Clinton/R seats and then some for a 10-15 seat majority. Defend all contested seats in the Senate and take the Flake seat. Heller and Collins narrowly get re-elected, but Beto O’Rourke shocks the political establishment by taking down Ted Cruz giving Democrats a 1 seat majority.
Who will be the next Speaker of the House?
Pelosi comfortably re-elected as Speaker after pledging to step down after the 2020 elections.
Will Donald Trump be President on December 31, 2018?
Yes.
How many people will be indicted and convicted (including guilty pleas) in the Mueller probe?
The ones who have been already and maybe Jeff Sessions and Donald Trump Jr..
World:
What will be the major world event that will dominate the news?
ISIS is defeated. Assad and remaining Syrian forces come to a power sharing agreement that keeps him in charge, backed by Putin and the US. The raging protests in Iran will force Rouhani to break more sharply with the Ayatollah precipitating a constitutional crisis in that country while the Saudi consolidation also breaks out into factions. The Sunni-Shia divide will continue to get worse while facing internal divisions related to those conflicts. The recognition of Jerusalem dooms Mahmod Abbas and Fatah in Palestinian elections while backfiring on Netenyahu as Jewish Home and other far right parties pick up steam alongside a revitalized center led by the new Labour leader and Yesh Atid. A third intifada breaks out. Hezbollah losing it’s main backers in Assad and Iran uses the Third Intifada to open another front on Israel causing a Third Lebanon War. Trump tweets out he would send American ground troops to keep Israel strong, but nothing comes of it.
President Trump escalates the situation in Korea by proposing a Kennedy style quarantine on fuel and weapons shipments at the urging of hawks like Mattis and McMaster. Creates a nuclear style standoff in the mold of the Cuban missile crisis. Narrowly averted after Xi backs down in exchange for substantial trade concessions from the Trump administration and threat of formal sanction on US from Western European allies. Putin takes advantage of this division in NATO to escalate the war in Ukraine and more formally annex the breakaway regions. Republicans on the Foreign Relations, Intelligence, and Armed Services committees in both houses begin to break away from the President’s reckless foreign policy now that the risk to world peace is made real and the majority is lost. Merkel forms a centrist coalition with SPD. Theresa May rebounds in polls precipitating another Labour leadership election.
Sports and Entertainment:
Who will win the AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl?
Patriots will narrowly beat the Steelers in another nail biter that comes down to a miscalled catch. NFL will change the catch rule next year after the rest of the league protests. NFC is won by the upstart LA Rams. Patriots narrowly win a low scoring Super Bowl on Gostkowski field goals. Gronk is seriously concussed during the game. Brady announces next season will be his last.
How will the Red Sox do with Alex Cora? Who will win the AL, NL, and World Series?
Agree 100% with Pablo’s predictions here. Francona and Theo will each enjoy World Series parades in other team uniforms.
How about these Celtics?
They win the East but lose in the finals to the Houston Rockets. Lebron stops openly talking about joining a younger team like the 76ers or Celtics.
Wild Guesses:
Elizabeth Warren is narrowly re-elected and is the first major Democrat to announce she is not running for President. She will be joined by Sherrod Brown, Chris Murphy and Kamala Harris. Biden, Bernie, Gillibrand, and Seth Moulton are in. Howard Shultz is in and does surprisingly well in the early debates Biden flounders a bit over Anita Hill and bankruptcy bill. Bernie flounders over past support for gun rights and skepticism toward immigration reform. Those two go negative on each other early opening up the field to upstarts.
Kasich leaves the GOP to prepare for an independent run. Considers military figures like Bill McRaven, James Stavridis, or Mike Mullen for VP slot. Reverses himself on gay marriage, choice, and guns. The Come Together Party attracts early Beltway Buzz and Bloomberg backing but fails to make much of an impact on the ground. It’s over before 2020 starts, but Kasich becomes a keynote speaker at the 2020 DNC.
Romney flirts openly with a primary run against Donald Trump after overwhelmingly defeating Orrin Hatch as an anti-Trump conservative Republican. Becomes a leader of an anti-Trump faction in Congress after the Korean Missile Crisis, Eastern Ukraine annexation, and mideast disasters.
Pope Benedict dies and his aide publishes a scathing posthumous letter excoriating Pope Francis for flirting with heresy on communion for remarried persons, homosexuality, and economic socialism. The Benedict Letter becomes a rallying cry for conservative Cardinals and precipitates a major schism in the Western church.
That last one is indeed wild. II’s been a while since there was a schism.
Your Secretary and CD3 predictions are bold. I haven’t committed yet, but I’m giving Zakim a hard look. I just think Galvin is pretty entrenched. Matias has a solid, but narrow base of Lawrence/Hispanic support, but I would not bet the house on her staying in the race all the way. Right now the top three are probably L’Italien, Trahan, and Koh. It’s been speculated that Matias may ultimately try for L’Italien’s Senate seat instead.
I’ll trust your judgment since it’s your home turf. L’Italien has Emma Friend working for her and she was my best hire back in the day. Emily Cherniak helped Mattis win one of only two successful primary challenges of incumbents in 2016 and I wouldn’t underestimate them either.
Here is a nitpick for you: Susan Collins isn’t up for re-election next year.
Which is why I was confused a while back about reports that she declined to run for Governor opting to seek re-election to the Senate, which made it sound like she would have to give up her seat to run. Obviously if she prefers the Senate anyway that is her choice, but she could try for Governor in 2018 without risking her seat if she loses.
Dubwichdem is correct and Christopher explained where my confusion came from. I think the bigger issue for her is that she’s now an important swing vote in the Senate and she didn’t want LePage appointing her successor if she won. It was legally unclear if she could delay her resignation from the Senate and appoint her own successor.
Hadn’t thought of the resignation issue. I guess I just assumed she could resign effective the moment she took her oath as Governor.
I’m game.
Massachusetts:
Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor?
Setti Warren will nominate, but lose to Baker something like 55-45.
What is the result (percentage points) of the constitutional amendment providing for a “millionaire’s tax?”
A close win, say 52-49.
National:
What will be the post-election makeup of the House and Senate?
I think we’;ll take the Senate, but the House will stay GOP, with some small gains by us.
Who will be the next Speaker of the House?
Tough one … I don’t know.
Will Donald Trump be President on December 31, 2018?
Yes.
How many people will be indicted and convicted (including guilty pleas) in the Mueller probe?
Two or three.
World:
What will be the major world event that will dominate the news?
Well, I HOPE it’s not regime change in Iran, but there are some stirrings about that. Failing that I think China will escalate the trade war in an unhelpful way.
Sports and Entertainment:
Who will win the AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl?
Don’t know about the AFC, but I imagine the Patriots will return to the Super Bowl, and win.
How will the Red Sox do with Alex Cora? Who will win the AL, NL, and World Series?
About 85 wins, with some growing pains. In my view it is vital that Tony LaRussa not hang around past next season. (In fact they never should have hired LaRussa — nothing against him, but the hire says they lack confidence in Cora.)
Wild Guesses:
McConnell faces a leadership challenge, which he beats back (this happens whether they keep the Senate or not).
Kasich decides not to challenge Trump because he can’t raise enough money.
Bloomberg finally pulls the trigger on his long-threatened third party run, and fizzles like a week-old soda.
Some movie studio begins marketing itself as “the new Miramax,” with some success.
The House/Senate flip is bold and intriguing. I guess you aren’t confident in the current polling that the gerrymandering can be beaten by a big enough wave. Can’t blame you after the polling flaps in 2016. The Jones flip certainly makes the Senate map a lot easier than before.
People powered regime change in Iran could be a good thing, I just don’t trust Trump to manage the fallout well. Ironically his tweets and general hostile posture only emboldens the hardliners. Overt American support is about the last thing these protestors need.
With you on Kasich or Bloomberg trying another round of centrist third party and that it will sinks faster than a lead balloon. It could be a good wake up call to the Beltway that most Americans are a mix of populist and progressive. Not a “radical centrist” among the masses outside of Wall or K Street.
MA Warren-Tingle win Democratic nod and proceed to lose to Baker 44-53-2. Warren is nonetheless queued up to run for next U.S. Senate vacancy.
Tax amendment survives plutocrat-funded effort to cast it as a referendum on the Legislature, 52-48.
US Dems will be stunned by failure to retake House, polls notwithstanding. Agonizing reappraisal leads to one conclusion: blame Jill Stein.
Paul Ryan, who has quit politics for a 6-figure-plus-bonus Koch Bros. job, reluctantly agrees to be House speaker.
Trump stays in; before he fires Muller there are 5 more indictments, one with a guilty plea.
World Brandishing invasion as a threat, China forces negotiations on the future status of Taiwan.
Excellent fodder for predictions.
A divided SJC allows Millionaire’s Tax to go to ballot. It’s approved 54-46, as is sales tax reduction question, 55-45,
Super Bowl crown remains in New England, but this time victory celebration is muted by its own familiarity, a greater enthusiasm for the Celtics, and a growing fatigue with football in general and the Pats’ dickishness in particular.
Jay is our next governor.
The Millionaire’s Tax is approved.
Democrats take the house, get close in the senate but not close enough to win with Pence as the tie breaker.
Next speaker is Pelosi, sadly for the party and is key for Republicans to take back the house in 2020.
Trump resigns 30 days after Democrats take the house.
President Pence appoints Mitt Romney as VP.
Pence/Romney ticket in 2020 wins as stock markets continues to rise and survives one major correction and are remembered in history as the last time the USA had two white males as president and vice president following a massive recession in 2022.
Jared goes to prison and gets to wear the same prison number as his dad had when he was a convicted felon.
Ivanka divorces Jared, converts to LDS and marries a Romney in the White House with Donald attending.
I don’t follow sports.
Bearing in mind that I am frequently wrong. ..
Setti Waren. Jay Gonzalez is angling for position in his government, possibly Lt. Gov.
Here’s were previous predictions are nutso-bizarre. Point the first: Charlie Baker never has, and never will, get more that 49% of the CommonWealth vote. Point the second, no Republican nominee for Governor has gotten even 50% since Celluci in ’98. Point the Third, Republican nominees in Massachusetts (again since Celluci) have a middling record of winning only against female Democrats. So long as Setti Warren doesn’t have an emergency gender re-assignment he wins 55 to 42 on the strength of one speech in which he gets people excited about hopeful politics again and by saying nice things about Charlie Baker all while underlying Bakers basic ineffectiveness.
Solid majority in House. Chaos in the Senate due to a number of close races/recounts.
Nancy Pelosi.
No. He is on the precipice of fairly drastic cognitive decline brought on by the stress of 2017 following years of very little stress and a lot of unhealthy habits. It is catching up to him. Taking away the keys to the car, however, is going to be a problem. He will be incapacitated, if not deceased, before the aforementioned day and well before any serious thought of impeachment can be undertaken.
With any luck, every last one that deserves it. If I knew how many that was I’d be co-operating with the Mueller probe.
Donald Trumps declining mental health will become vividly apparent either during a crisis or by action of one of his handlers (Pence? Kelly? Mattis?) that will precipitate a constitutional crisis well before the election. Putin will make some further move against Ukraine during this time. Ukraine is pushed into chaos and NATO is put on alert at the request of Poland.
Also, Scotland and Northern Ireland will both proceed with referenda on leaving the UK in the hopes of joining the EU.
Tom Vitolo will win for Brookline in the House of Representatives and on his first day will become Speaker of the House by acclamation. DeLeo will refuse to accept and Vitolo will have to engage in hand to hand combat to wrest the gavel from his hands…. Vitolo KO’s him in the fourth.
Well you sure do like to stir the pot! LG is nominated separately and not picked by the Gov. nominee, for whom BTW you are giving an awfully bold spread. I wonder if an independent Northern Ireland makes any sense as opposed to united with the Republic rather than the UK. I could go with our own stomv for Speaker:)
Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor?
Setti/Tingle
What is the result (percentage points) of the governor’s election.
45% for the Dems
What is the result (percentage points) of the constitutional amendment providing for a “millionaire’s tax?”
49% for the millionaire tax (how can you pick a win for something that has consistently lost since the 1960s?)
What will be the post-election makeup of the House and Senate?
Dems get the House, pick up one seat in Senate for a 50/50 tie
Who will be the next Speaker of the House?
Paul Ryan
Will Donald Trump be President on December 31, 2018?
Yes, unless he dies.
How many people will be indicted and convicted (including guilty pleas) in the Mueller probe?
Eight, most for lying to the FBI or Perjury. Aside from George P, Flynn, Manafort and Gates…we’ll have Carter Page, Jared K, probably Hope Hicks and Rence P, as they don’t know the FBI had their campaign emails and probably lied in their interviews. But you did not ask how many unindicted co-conspirators? I guess one.
What will be the major world event that will dominate the news?
Pick your poison.
Mind fart…unfortunately Nancy Pelosi will be the next Speaker, defeating the other Congressman Ryan (Tim)
Haven’t commented in a while, but I have to make some predictions about 2018 and beyond….some more ridiculous than others…
Setti Warren defeats Baker 48% to 47%. Public transportation and multiple Warren for Gov/Warren for Senate events with an appearance by Obama push Setti over the top.
Elizabeth Warren carries a lackluster 53% for the win. Which happens to be the same spread for the millionaires tax.
The Senate is 50/50, but the House goes to the Dems.
Nancy Pelosi is the next Speaker and a restless Seth Moulton announces his bid for the presidency (he eventually waves the white flag and endorses the Booker/Warren ticket). The presidential run makes Moulton a national figure, giving him the wallet and profile to defeat Polito in the general for the Senate seat once held by Vice President Warren.
A Markey retirement could mix things up though…..eventually Moulton and Kennedy are the Senators from Massachusetts.
Unfortunately Trump is President on 31Dec2018, but Pence is no longer Vice President.