Happy New Year and Bombogenesis Day, everyone.
No time like the present to try to divine the future; with every new Trump blowup, it’s easy to neglect that we’ve actually got two major races this November — Governor and Senator — and that even our Commonwealth — with seemingly stable politics — will be absolutely inundated with campaign spending: Governor Baker has amassed $7 million+ — not to mention his cozy relationship with the RGA and sketchy deep-pocketed funders. Meanwhile, outside dark money funders — the Mercers, you know, the Breitbart funders — have made it clear that they intend to try to soften up Elizabeth Warren, anticipating a 2020 Presidential run, which is seeming quite plausible.
One thing I know: Elizabeth Warren will wipe the floor with whomever the GOP runs against her. She will blow up the Trumpist Geoff Diehl, and the rest of the pack is just not that interesting. But we’re going to get a lot of scary-voiced TV ads funded by kooky billionaire misanthropes (the Mercers, they’re called – perhaps you’ve heard of them. Remember that name.).
One thing I suspect: Despite polls and money, the Governor’s race will be pretty close. Charlie Baker has a nice polling halo as a bureaucratic place-holder, but voters will be hard-pressed to think of three major accomplishments. Why is this guy here? The T is now a legit campaign issue, like I’ve never seen before. Voters will be reminded constantly of the MBTA’s continued operational failures and the Governor’s lack of vision: His unwillingness to push for action on a $7B maintenance backlog; and the administration’s laughable timidity in pushing back West Station until 2040 effectively never. #nohopeever is a not a great thing to run on.
Setti Warren, Jay Gonzalez and Bob Massie are all making more-or-less the right critique of Baker — that we should be doing more and better with some very sticky problems of inequality, transit, housing, energy/environment, health care costs, and so forth. The Gov candidates will point to Baker’s (and the MassGOP’s) flirtation with some ugly, xenophobic Trumpist elements. (It will help Dems if Diehl is on the ballot.) And Baker’s list of legislative priorities is mostly stultifying – sure, AirBnB taxes, but is that really it? Baker has to decide how he’s going to respond to the new federal tax laws, and he’s on the wrong side of the very popular millionaire’s tax proposal.
At some point, political caution manifests itself as a lack of accomplishment. Add this to the folks showing up to the polls in the Trump era, wanting to torch anything and anyone with an “R” next to their names, and this race isn’t a slam dunk for the tall guy.
Re: Senator Warren, I think she might be safer than usual. There’s no clear challenger, and the national money will want to go where it has a better shot of winning. If they had a comfortable margin, they’d love to see her lose, but they don’t. They need to hold every seat, so they’ll focus on the swingy states.
Once again the importance of the win in Alabama shows through.
To a lot of voters outside of 128, not spending money on the T is a feature, not a bug. (Shortsided? Sure.)
That is a point I was just about to make.
Commuter rail extends quite a ways outside of 128, and a real vision for public transit ought to include non-Boston centric options anyway.
How did those people feel about the 20 some-odd billion dollars spent on the Big Dig? Surely those inside the 128 circle o’ special didn’t shoulder the burden of spending money on the Big Dig alone?
There is, arguably, a greater rationale for money spent on the MBTA, extending as it already does, to Worcester, FItchburg, Lowell, Haverhill, Quincy, Scituate and Providence, RI (most of which, last I checked, existed outside of 128), than there was for the Big Dig spending which was more-or-less confined to Boston proper…. that is to say, well within the confines of 128….
The reasons for spending any dollars on the Big Dig (modulo the fiscal irresponsibility contained therein) are EXACTLY and PRECISELY the same reasons for spending money on the MBTA: to move massive amounts of people in, around, and out of the city with ease.
Last I checked, too, route 128 itself was pretty clogged with people who live, and pay taxes, on one side of the road and work on the other. The less ridership of the MBTA, the greater is the clog on 128, daily…. Call it the price you might pay for being stubborn and …err… ‘shortsided’ …
This book (https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10371.html) is pretty helpful at explaining why I think Warren and Baker will be elected by similarly close margins. 53-47 in both races. The states real center of electoral power are moderately liberal suburbanites. They like good schools, don’t use the T, and prefer social and fiscal moderation. If it’s a normal midterm turnout race, these folks will determine the outcome. If it’s a high turnout race like we saw in VA, NJ. and AL it could be a race.
Such a coalition wasn’t there in the Mayors race, but could be there for Governor. A lot of my friends and co workers know nothing about state politics and a lot about national politics, and anyone with an R next to their name is anathema to these folks. That could damage Baker even if he’s banking on Massachusetts reverting to the mean.
They may not use the T directly, but stuck in traffic on 128 trying to get to/from their suburb to their job in the city, they surely wish others would.
What part of public transportation is the best and most cost effective method of quickly moving large numbers of people into and out of the city is so damn hard for them to grasp? Do they LIKE sitting in traffic?
I’m with you Petr. I preferred the 40-60 minute Metra commuter rail over the 90 min-2 hour bumper to bumper commute when I lived in the Chicago burbs. You could read books, do work, watch movies on your I-Pad, and even have a beer!
Even today, I’ll take the 45 minute bus ride from my school to work over the 20 minute drive*. I can grade homework (or do my own) and listen to music without having to worry about other drivers. The only downside is how unreliable our transit gets as soon as its cold or how sporadic bus service can sometimes be.
*with the exception of Wednesday when I froze my tail off waiting for a transfer at Ruggles
Charlie Baker wants Mass law enforcement to join Trump’s ICE in ethnic cleansing. Not really a surprise when you remember how he didn’t ever think about the evil symbolized by the Confederate battle flag that George Wallace made popular. http://www.wbur.org/news/2017/08/01/baker-legislation-ice-detainers