Don’t you dare assume it can’t happen.
I could not believe that Frank Phillips of the Boston Globe dismissed the viciously antigay Scott Lively’s chances of an upset victory in the September 4 Massachusetts GOP gubernatorial primary by highlighting Lively’s lack of money. Does Phillips not recognize that people like Lively always manage to find a far-right billionaire or two to help them out?
Think about it. Just how passionate is Governor Charlie Baker’s support? If Baker were really as intensely popular as he’s often made out to be, Lively would have been crushed at the Massachusetts Republican Party convention, no? Doesn’t Lively’s performance over the weekend suggest that there is an undercurrent of right-wing anti-Baker sentiment Lively can tap into going into the gubernatorial primary?
The same folks who blithely assume Lively can’t pull off an upset (especially in a low-turnout primary) are the same folks who blithely assumed Donald Trump couldn’t win the 2016 Republican presidential primary. Anyone who assumes Lively can’t win in September assumes that the right-wing resentment that generated one million votes for Trump in Massachusetts in the 2016 presidential election can’t be ginned up again by Lively and his allies in 2018.
I fear that folks will let their guard down, take the summer off, and take it as a foregone conclusion that Baker will conquer Lively in the September GOP primary. Lively will organize his right-wing forces–forces comprised of people who strangely regard Baker as a de facto Democrat, and who hate him for it–to pull off an upset. If that prospect isn’t frightening enough, then think about this: if Lively does become the GOP nominee, what if, by some fluke, he actually becomes the next governor of Massachusetts?
Words like “upset”, “unprecedented” and “surprise” are used do describe unlikely events.
It is true that Donald Trump got 1,090,893 votes in Massachusetts in the 2016 election. It is also true that Hillary Clinton got essentially twice that total — 1,995,196 votes.
It’s also true that each and every voter who knows even a tiny bit about elections and civics knew that their Donald Trump vote was as meaningless as a vote for Daffy Duck or None Of The Above.
As of the most recent data (February 2017), there are 4,486,849 registered voters in MA. 54% of those are unenrolled, 34% of those are registered Democrats, and 11% are GOP (rounding to two-digit percentage precision).
A protest vote for Donald Trump is very different from an actual vote for Scott Lively in an actual (not primary) election.
I think that the odds of Scott Lively overcoming the two-to-one advantage of Ms. Clinton over Mr. Trump are vanishingly small.
I think Mr. Lively is a bigot, a sexist, and utter loser and an extremist fringe candidate. I think the Massachusetts GOP is fringe party that offers a welcoming home to such deplorable candidates. It is no accident that both Mr. Lively and Mr. Trump chose the GOP.
I think Mr. Lively might somehow win the GOP primary. I think that would pretty much guarantee that a Democrat will replace Mr. Baker in 2019.
Huge difference between Trump in a crowded field and Baker v. Lively one on one.
I think independents will be drawn to this race, and not to vote for Mr. Lively.
That’s what I was implying a couple of days back. Possible implications – will this help Lindstrom and Kingston if they have an opinion on the Senate race? (not sure if we want that). Will it make the universe of Democratic primary voters more liberal? (possibly helping Massie?)
Curiously, Lively shares with Trump the fact that he’s one of those conservatives that has come to be a big fan of Putin and Russia in recent years.
Lively also was exposed by John Oliver for his work “advising” the Ugandan government to write some of the harshest anti-gay laws on the planet. The man is a hardened bigot and should be nowhere near elected office in this Commonwealth.
Damn, I wish I wrote this one! Remember, this is a Republican Primary and anyone TODAY who is still willing to call themselves a Republican is still only watching FOX News, still whining about Hillary, and still wants Trump to do whatever it is that he promised them. They will vote for Lively and not (in their minds) the RINO.
Massachusetts independents are well schooled in casting a ballot in either party’s primary without feeling any special allegiance to that party or its standard-bearer.
I believe they will decide this race, unless the D primary gets unexpectedly interesting and lures them away.
If the race gets close, expect the Globe and other centrist types to urge Democrats and independents to cast a vote for Charlie in his primary. I do not see it happening, though I do think it makes it more likely than not they nominate a crazy person next cycle or Polito has real problems getting the nomination in 22’.
Our gubernatorial primary maybe a snoozer but there are a lot of exciting downballot races to consider.