I love Arlington – but when you live in a town where Trump got 17.45% of the vote, and Hillary won by a 15,534 vote margin, the prevailing attitude toward national politics doesn’t align to the rest of the country. As a result, we have a political barometer in the midst of a high pressure system, while a Category 5 hurricane is churning elsewhere on the electoral map.
In the world where I walk regularly, the thought of impeaching Donald Trump is extremely popular, even if the net result is President Mike Pence. Even if you assume a majority of Americans want Donald Trump extracted from the White House, and even if you assume a new Democratic congress would happily vote for impeachment, removal from office requires a 2/3 majority in the United States Senate. If the Democrats achieve their most optimistic outcome, and win a 51-49 majority, an impeachment won’t succeed unless all 51 Democrats and at least 16 Republicans vote for it.
How do we get there?
Let’s start by looking back to August 7, 1974. According to the Christian Science Monitor:
Senator Barry Goldwater, along with House Republican Leader John Jacob Rhodes and Senate Republican Leader Hugh Scott, entered the Oval Office around 5 p.m. The Arizona senator sat directly in front of Nixon’s desk, the others to the side. Goldwater told Nixon he had perhaps 16 to 18 Senate supporters left – too few to avoid ouster. Congressman Rhodes said House support was just as soft.
Nixon resigned the next day.
This is also the necessary scenario for removing Trump. When the Republicans march up to the White House, and announce that he lacks enough support in his own party to remain in office.
When the Republicans realize that Trump, and Trumpism, is a toxic brew that is poisoning their party, Trump will be neutralized. Hopefully, the midterms will start to convey that message.
While some surprise senate results will move things forward, the results I will be watching are for down-ticket races in Senate Class II, as well as “rust belt” races in blue wall states that went to Trump.
If the 2018 math gives us Democratic governors in MI, OH, IL, WI, MN, FL, and GA, Trump’s path to a 2020 victory becomes very shaky. If the 2018 math gives us new Democratic senators in AZ, we have another red to purple state and an even more difficult red path to the White House.
When Trump, and his ugly white nationalism, becomes an albatross in enough places to guarantee a second blue wave in 2020, the Republicans will be the ones furiously looking for the evidence that will require the removal of a criminal from the White House. They will be making the case for why Trump must go, because that will be in their enlightened self-interest. At that point, our long national nightmare will fade in the light of dawn.
Bernie Sanders had the right answer on AC 360 tonight. Stopping Medicare and Medicaid cuts, expanding that program, a path to citizenship for immigrants, making college affordable, restoring voting rights, fighting for LGBT rights, raising the minimum wage, and climate security are all more immediate short term fights that a Democratic House can make a huge difference in. Even just getting oversight over Trump cabinet departments and regulatory agencies is a huge win.
There is simply not enough time or political capital for impeachment to be a viable avenue. Particularly when I suspect the Trump administration could be on the ropes politically if it is soundly repudiated tomorrow. A Democratic Senate majority is becoming possible again, and with it securing the Supreme Court from further Brett Kavanaugh’s.
Pablo also makes a great and frankly underrated point about the Governorships. Not only do they demonstrate that the Midwest is coming back into Team Blue thanks to a combination of African American turnout and Obama-Trump supporters defecting back to the Democrats, but it is happening in places where Democratic governors can make an immediate impact on redistricting. This will secure fair representation as well as secure a House majority so that the Republicans will not keep winning majorities with a minority of the national popular vote. He may not be the sexiest candidate on the 2020 radar, but Jay Inslee will deserve a lot of credit for quietly leading the DGA to a record night if the polling is right.
I’ll add a couple more points:
One third of the states are electing Governors who will be involved in redistricting following the next census, so that could help us into the 2020s.
The absolute best we could do if we miraculously won every possible seat in the Senate is 58 given this year’s map. This is not the 1974 GOP and partisanship is stronger now. The only way GOP Senators might come around is if they see their same-state colleagues go down in flames tomorrow.
I agree with the thread-starter, and upvoted it.
At the same time, I fear that the comparison to Watergate misses a crucial difference. In 1974, even the GOP maintained a semblance of genuine respect for fundamental American values such as truth, rationality, and the rule of law. The same is not remotely true for the GOP of 2018 or the future.
Is there ANY currently-sitting GOP Senator who demonstrates the integrity of Barry Goldwater? I despised the man’s politics, and America made the correct decision to soundly reject his candidacy for the Presidency. Nevertheless, he was a man who was both appalled by Mr. Nixon’s crimes and did not hesitate to draw a very bright line for Mr. Nixon and America. Who would do that today? Orrin Hatch? Lindsay Graham? Mitch McConnell?
Mr. Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of the political cancer that is destroying our Republic. The final paragraph presupposes a party that acts entirely from their own perceived political self-interest, with zero regard for actual truth and actual law. There is nothing “enlightened” in the self-interest of the final paragraph.
I suggest that our long national nightmare may be just beginning. Worse, I suggest that it is not a nightmare and instead the bitter reality that results from three decades of GOP lies, greed, and utter contempt for America and Americans. I suggest that the light of dawn, when it appears, is much more likely to happen 15, 20, or 25 years from now if it happens at all.
America of 2018 more closely resembles Rome of about AD 400 than America of 1974.
We can’t overstate the importance of the governorships in GA, WI, MI, and FL.
Trump won a few unexpected states because of voter suppression. We’ve heard plenty this round about GA, and in 2016 about MI. Democratic governors can turn that around for 2020.
Heh. I, for one, will wait for the results before I worry about the importance of their outcome. The deep south — FL and GA — is so mired in racism, bigotry, and sheer ignorance that I view the region as nothing but a hindrance to any sort of civilized view of America.
So — I fear you actually have overstated the importance of at least some of these governorships. These races do not come close to making the long and growing list of things that keep me awake at night.
I wouldn’t be quite so quick to tar an entire region.
You also haven’t spent much, if any time, there.
I’m sorry that you don’t like it when I speak so frankly. I’m not trying to be a jerk when I say you haven’t spent much time in the deep south. I’m instead again trying to remind you that the assumptions we make here in New England are simply not true in the deep south.
It is not a matter of being too quick to tar an entire region. It is, instead, a matter of paying attention to what I experience each time I spend time in the deep south.
The newsworthy events in FL and GA were that our candidates made contests of those elections. That’s a great step forward. The elected representatives of those states will do all in their power to block, derail, sabotage, and betray our agenda in every way they can. The residents of GA just chose an man who explicitly invoked racist lies in order to win.
I remember Lester Maddox. Brian Kemp is every bit as racist as Mr. Maddox. The residents of Georgia just chose Mr. Kemp as their governor.
I reject the premise that the loss of the GA governorship is anything other than a reminder that GA is just as racist today as it has ever been.
I don’t think anybody is saying that, but that there was an opportunity to change the balance of power and undo some of that damage at least for a short time, possibly just enough to squeeze out a similar victory 2 years later. Making it just a little easier for people to vote could make a big difference. Look at the margins in GA-6 and GA-7. (And, ahem, MI+WI in 2016).
I said “I view the region as nothing but a hindrance to any sort of civilized view of America.”
I responded to a comment that said “I wouldn’t be quite so quick to tar an entire region.”
When you write “I don’t think anybody is saying that”, I’m not sure what you mean.
I don’t know what will happen two years from now. I agree that there was an opportunity to change the balance of power. I hope you (and Christopher) agree that the response to that opportunity was for the entire state to elect the most explicitly racist gubernatorial candidate that GA has seen since Lester Maddox.
I think the “entire region” — meaning the totality of the state of GA — has demonstrated that it is just as racist as it was during the Lester Maddox era. I’m not in any way minimizing those who turned out and made it a contested election.
I nevertheless stand by my observation that the result will be “nothing but a hindrance to any sort of civilized view of America”.
I think this outcome was a disappointment, for sure. I don’t think that disappointment is all that important in the larger picture.
Well it may not be deep, but I have lived in Virginia, but I still think that regardless of how much time you have spent in the South you are inappropriately trading in stereotypes which are not helpful regardless of the target. You point to the GA results (not yet solidified BTW) as evidence that the state is racist and maybe many are, but doesn’t the number of votes that Abrams got prove at least as much that there are plenty who are not?
The culture of a state runs deeper than vote counts in any given election. Mr. Kemp is not just another candidate. He is a candidate that flagrantly and proudly made his contempt for minorities the centerpiece of his campaign. No voter can support Mr. Trump without accepting the racism, bigotry, misogyny, and everything else of Mr. Trump. The same is true of Mr. Kemp.
Virginia has not, in my lifetime, been comparable to Georgia, Mississippi, or Alabama. The National Guard was never dispatched to Virginia to enforce federal law. There have been no counterparts in my lifetime to Lester Maddox, George Wallace, or Ross Barnett.
The strong showing of Ms. Abrams is good news. It remains to be seen what it portends for the future — it appears to me that the election of Barack Obama for two terms had a great deal to do with the resurgence of racist bigotry that now dominates the Trumpists.
However deplorable you consider rural southerners, let’s not dismiss the entire population of metro Atlanta. This was a vote for their franchise in the electoral college and senate, and they lost. And that’s just from a complete outsider’s perspective ignoring local issues in the race.
I disagree with your reluctance to take people at their word. I’m not dismissing the entire population of metro Atlanta. I’m reminding you, as an outsider, of the history of the state of Georgia.
The entire population of metro Atlanta suffered under Lester Maddox. They suffered under slavery. They suffer today. We do not ease their suffering by refusing to name or acknowledge the reality of the statewide culture that surrounds them.
I’m sure the Dems have some sort of idea of how to address the impeachment issue. but it’s something that can’t be forced. The key will be the public wanting it, which may or may not happen. That was part of the key in 1974.
Of course, we had a GOP that still believed that gravity was a force and 2 + 2=4, and the infrastructure for wingnuttery didn’t include a major news network, multiple websites, and social media.
I predict that the several on-going investigations will show long-standing, pervasive, and extensive personal corruption of Mr. Trump, his family, and his various enterprises. The facts will show that Mr. Trump has been deeply enmeshed with organized crime — specifically the Russian mafia — for decades. I expect felony indictments of at least Mr. Kushner and Mr. Trump Jr. (none of whom are protected by any sort of immunity).
The question will be whether having lifelong members of the mob with deep and demonstrated ties to Russian organized crime in the Oval Office will be enough to sway GOP Trumpists against him.
I’m not holding my breath.
We saw ‘Republicans of good will” fold on issue after issue from Kavanaugh to health care. Now, there are none of them left. Maybe Murkowski, and her days are probably numbered. Collins will continue to be “very troubled” by everything Trump does and do next to nothing to contain him. There won’t even be Flake and Corker anymore to pretend to be troubled.
McConnell likely expanded his majority last night and this is “very troubling” indeed. Not just for the future of the court (RBG isn’t getting any younger…) but for the full checks and balances needed to bring this administration to heel. I do not want to dismiss a Democratic House, this is very welcome news. A first step toward accountability and a full restoration of checks and balances.
Timing
Nixon resigned in August of 1974.
The House Judiciary did not even start to consider articles of impeachment until the previous May. That had followed years of hearings on Watergate and some other matters by Judiciary and also the Senate Select Committee.
These investigations were necessary to convince both the House, the Senate, and the American people that a trial in the Senate was necessary. Those investigations are what are appropriate today.
The other model is the impeachment and conviction of Bill Clinton. That you may recall was undertaken by a lame duck Congress following the 1998 mid terms.
Other than the meandering investigation by Ken Star (and Brett Kavanaugh), there was no fact-finding. Committee hearings were perfunctory and the whole thing was voted to the Senate just 4 days after being introduced in House Judiciary.
Pushing Trump’s impeachment in January would be much more like the Clinton impeachment than the Nixon impeachment. Perhaps that is a weakness of our form of government, but these things take time.