All the statewide officers will get re-elected including Charlie Baker. All three questions will pass, with Yes on 1 narrowly passing 51-49. Diehl will take 41% against Warren while Jay will get 35% against Baker. Both will do better than predicted but fall short.
Nationally the Republicans will keep the Senate and the Democrats will take the House. Democrats will net 40+ seats with a better than expected showing. Ojeda and McGrath win; Collins, King, Rohrbacher, and Culberson lose. Randy Bryce and Jared Golden will narrowly lose, Hunter narrowly wins but will resign his seat after he wins. Fourth ranking Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers goes down.
Beto O’Rourke will exceed his projected polling against Cruz and narrowly lose, setting himself up as a 2020 presidential dark horse. The GA governors race will go to a runoff along with the less well known MS senate race, pushing the final midterm battles into December. Abrams will prevail, Epsy will narrowly lose.
McClaskill, Donnelly, Tester, and Manchin will survive. Rosen and Sinema are the two Democratic pickups in the Senate. Heitkamp and Nelson will fall. Menendez will survive after a lengthy recount. The Senate stays 51-49 and Murkowski will become pretty popular.
IL,IA, MI, WI, KS, FL, GA, NM, and SD all elect Democratic governors. With the exception of RI, deep blue New England will have Republican Governors, NH just barely so.
2020:
Harris, Booker, Warren, O’Rourke, Avenatti, Bullock, Hickenlooper, Tim Ryan, and Howard Schultz are immediately in for 2020. Biden and Seth Moulton eventually out, Sanders and Bloomberg eventually in, Gillibrand and Klobuchar eventually out.
ykozlovsays
Golden will narrowly lose in the first round but win the majority. LePage won’t certify the results and Poliquin will contest. And Maine will have a Democratic governor – are we not counting it in NE today?
Gonzalez 39-61 with high blue turnout in CD7 and the Berkshires+PV and a sea of red in between. MA Dems make a big push for a centrist candidate in 2022.
Yeah forgot about Maine, now that the independents dropped out (since the ME general is the last NOT to use IRV), I think Mills has a good shot.
Your Q1 numbers are my fears, hope it isn’t true. Anecdotally a lot of late deciders I know seem to be breaking for No. I agree about 2022, there is a lane for a centrist candidate to the left of Baker/Polito and to the right of Healey.
Christophersays
Baker will win, but with less of a spread than assumed. Other constitutionals re-elected though Bump possibly without a majority. Warren will have a wider spread than Baker against her opponent. MA federal delegation will remain all Democratic. Dems will take the US House and produce a couple of surprises for the US Senate. A few legislative seats will flip our way and the State House will become marginally more progressive. Questions 1 and 3 will narrowly pass, but there’s no information or play for Question 2.
doublemansays
I think this is how things will go down, except Question 3. I think (I hope) Question 3 will pass overwhelmingly, with a 30-40 point gap. I could be very wrong but I think we’re going to see MA voters do the right and decent thing here. A recent poll had support at 68% and an earlier poll was 71%.
SomervilleTomsays
Not that it matters (I hate horserace stories prior to an election), but I certainly hope that Mr. Diehl doesn’t come close to the 41% offered upthread,
The most recent FiveThirtyEight poll (including a MassINC poll from 28-Oct) has the spread at 61.6-35.7 for Ms. Warren with a 52.8% turnout. A RealClearPolitics rollup has a more right-leaning poll (Suffolk) showing the spread at 56-34 towards Ms. Warren.
I will be embarrassed by my state if Mr. Diehl gets more than 33% (one of three) of the vote.
jconwaysays
Oh I certainly do not want that outcome, I just have seen a lot of Diehl signs in unexpected places and wonder if Baker coattails help him more than Warren coattails help Gonzalez. We will see!
There’s also the possibility Lively voters blank Baker-a play on the fact that he blanked Trump and was hesitant to endorse Diehl.
For every older Democrat I know satisfied with Baker there is a younger voter who missed the last midterms fired up for this one. The same folks who voted in Ayanna with an out of nowhere 18% surge in youth turnout could help Gonzalez make it a more interesting night on Tuesday. One can surely hope.
petrsays
I will be embarrassed by my state if Mr. Diehl gets more than 33% (one of three) of the vote.
I’m pretty sure Diehl will do much much better than that. It must be said, however, that any tally will have nothing whatsoever to do with Diehl but the real, if inexplicable, animus towards Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Republicans haven’t voted ‘for’ someone since Bob Dole. They are the party of ‘against.’ They didn’t vote for Governor Baker but against Martha Coakley and, indeed, Charlie Baker is going to coast to the win in this cycle on the strength of Democratic votes: too many Democrats I know consider Baker a ‘nice guy’ and couldn’t pick out Jay Gonzalez in a lineup. Some of the Democrats I’ve spoken with are even expressing pride in their ‘hands-across-the-aisle’ open-minded bipartisanship.
SomervilleTomsays
I have to confess that I couldn’t pick Jay Gonzalez out of a lineup myself.
However it happened, Mr. Gonzalez is the most invisible Democratic gubernatorial nominee I can remember.
Christophersays
Mark Roosevelt could probably give Gonzalez a run for his money for that particular honor. He even ran ads point out which one he was and which one was running mate Bob Massie.
petrsays
I will be embarrassed by my state if Mr. Diehl gets more than 33% (one of three) of the vote.
I made a note to revisit this after the election out of morbid curiosity. It appears you should prepare to be embarrassed, Tom, as Geoff Diehl garnered 36.3% of the vote or 973,033 votes.
You should not, however, be as embarrassed on behalf of the soul of the CommonWealth, as I. Elsewhere, I predicted Charlie Baker wouldn’t get more than a million votes. Well he got 1,770,130 votes, or 66.9% of the votes, shattering Bill Welds previous record of 1.5 million votes in ’94 (though not, it must be said, percentage wise, as Weld grabbed just over 70% of that one…)
Beside the morbid curiosity, Diehl might represent the floor of Republican efforts and Baker the ceiling of Republican + Democratic crossover votes…
sabutaisays
Question #1 fails on the strength of the scaremongering, 56-44. The other two pass. Diehl gets just under 40% of the vote. All statewide incumbents are reelected.
Nationally, it’s real. An unusual turnout puts most Dem candidates in a close race over the edge. ME-2 goes Democrat, as does FL-gov. and Fl-Sen. No, Beto doesn’t win, but the House goes Democrat by about 8 seats. Arizona and Nevada flip, and the only Democratic incumbent senator to lose is Heitkamp. Don Young, Scott Walker and Steve King are gone,
The story coming out of it is the margin that Kemp is winning in Georgia, which is under 1,000, and the ugliness that infects his attempts to keep that win through gross interference with the vote count.
Was very surprised to see a Republican unopposed on my ballot today – Sandra Wright for Plymouth County Commissioner. It’s the only race in the SouthCoast area with a Republican unopposed. Anyone know why Dems couldn’t field a candidate?
All the statewide officers will get re-elected including Charlie Baker. All three questions will pass, with Yes on 1 narrowly passing 51-49. Diehl will take 41% against Warren while Jay will get 35% against Baker. Both will do better than predicted but fall short.
Nationally the Republicans will keep the Senate and the Democrats will take the House. Democrats will net 40+ seats with a better than expected showing. Ojeda and McGrath win; Collins, King, Rohrbacher, and Culberson lose. Randy Bryce and Jared Golden will narrowly lose, Hunter narrowly wins but will resign his seat after he wins. Fourth ranking Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers goes down.
Beto O’Rourke will exceed his projected polling against Cruz and narrowly lose, setting himself up as a 2020 presidential dark horse. The GA governors race will go to a runoff along with the less well known MS senate race, pushing the final midterm battles into December. Abrams will prevail, Epsy will narrowly lose.
McClaskill, Donnelly, Tester, and Manchin will survive. Rosen and Sinema are the two Democratic pickups in the Senate. Heitkamp and Nelson will fall. Menendez will survive after a lengthy recount. The Senate stays 51-49 and Murkowski will become pretty popular.
IL,IA, MI, WI, KS, FL, GA, NM, and SD all elect Democratic governors. With the exception of RI, deep blue New England will have Republican Governors, NH just barely so.
2020:
Harris, Booker, Warren, O’Rourke, Avenatti, Bullock, Hickenlooper, Tim Ryan, and Howard Schultz are immediately in for 2020. Biden and Seth Moulton eventually out, Sanders and Bloomberg eventually in, Gillibrand and Klobuchar eventually out.
Golden will narrowly lose in the first round but win the majority. LePage won’t certify the results and Poliquin will contest. And Maine will have a Democratic governor – are we not counting it in NE today?
Gonzalez 39-61 with high blue turnout in CD7 and the Berkshires+PV and a sea of red in between. MA Dems make a big push for a centrist candidate in 2022.
Q1: 48-52
Q2: 60-40 (1 significant digit)
Q3:68-32
Yeah forgot about Maine, now that the independents dropped out (since the ME general is the last NOT to use IRV), I think Mills has a good shot.
Your Q1 numbers are my fears, hope it isn’t true. Anecdotally a lot of late deciders I know seem to be breaking for No. I agree about 2022, there is a lane for a centrist candidate to the left of Baker/Polito and to the right of Healey.
Baker will win, but with less of a spread than assumed. Other constitutionals re-elected though Bump possibly without a majority. Warren will have a wider spread than Baker against her opponent. MA federal delegation will remain all Democratic. Dems will take the US House and produce a couple of surprises for the US Senate. A few legislative seats will flip our way and the State House will become marginally more progressive. Questions 1 and 3 will narrowly pass, but there’s no information or play for Question 2.
I think this is how things will go down, except Question 3. I think (I hope) Question 3 will pass overwhelmingly, with a 30-40 point gap. I could be very wrong but I think we’re going to see MA voters do the right and decent thing here. A recent poll had support at 68% and an earlier poll was 71%.
Not that it matters (I hate horserace stories prior to an election), but I certainly hope that Mr. Diehl doesn’t come close to the 41% offered upthread,
The most recent FiveThirtyEight poll (including a MassINC poll from 28-Oct) has the spread at 61.6-35.7 for Ms. Warren with a 52.8% turnout. A RealClearPolitics rollup has a more right-leaning poll (Suffolk) showing the spread at 56-34 towards Ms. Warren.
I will be embarrassed by my state if Mr. Diehl gets more than 33% (one of three) of the vote.
Oh I certainly do not want that outcome, I just have seen a lot of Diehl signs in unexpected places and wonder if Baker coattails help him more than Warren coattails help Gonzalez. We will see!
There’s also the possibility Lively voters blank Baker-a play on the fact that he blanked Trump and was hesitant to endorse Diehl.
For every older Democrat I know satisfied with Baker there is a younger voter who missed the last midterms fired up for this one. The same folks who voted in Ayanna with an out of nowhere 18% surge in youth turnout could help Gonzalez make it a more interesting night on Tuesday. One can surely hope.
I’m pretty sure Diehl will do much much better than that. It must be said, however, that any tally will have nothing whatsoever to do with Diehl but the real, if inexplicable, animus towards Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Republicans haven’t voted ‘for’ someone since Bob Dole. They are the party of ‘against.’ They didn’t vote for Governor Baker but against Martha Coakley and, indeed, Charlie Baker is going to coast to the win in this cycle on the strength of Democratic votes: too many Democrats I know consider Baker a ‘nice guy’ and couldn’t pick out Jay Gonzalez in a lineup. Some of the Democrats I’ve spoken with are even expressing pride in their ‘hands-across-the-aisle’ open-minded bipartisanship.
I have to confess that I couldn’t pick Jay Gonzalez out of a lineup myself.
However it happened, Mr. Gonzalez is the most invisible Democratic gubernatorial nominee I can remember.
Mark Roosevelt could probably give Gonzalez a run for his money for that particular honor. He even ran ads point out which one he was and which one was running mate Bob Massie.
I made a note to revisit this after the election out of morbid curiosity. It appears you should prepare to be embarrassed, Tom, as Geoff Diehl garnered 36.3% of the vote or 973,033 votes.
You should not, however, be as embarrassed on behalf of the soul of the CommonWealth, as I. Elsewhere, I predicted Charlie Baker wouldn’t get more than a million votes. Well he got 1,770,130 votes, or 66.9% of the votes, shattering Bill Welds previous record of 1.5 million votes in ’94 (though not, it must be said, percentage wise, as Weld grabbed just over 70% of that one…)
Beside the morbid curiosity, Diehl might represent the floor of Republican efforts and Baker the ceiling of Republican + Democratic crossover votes…
Question #1 fails on the strength of the scaremongering, 56-44. The other two pass. Diehl gets just under 40% of the vote. All statewide incumbents are reelected.
Nationally, it’s real. An unusual turnout puts most Dem candidates in a close race over the edge. ME-2 goes Democrat, as does FL-gov. and Fl-Sen. No, Beto doesn’t win, but the House goes Democrat by about 8 seats. Arizona and Nevada flip, and the only Democratic incumbent senator to lose is Heitkamp. Don Young, Scott Walker and Steve King are gone,
The story coming out of it is the margin that Kemp is winning in Georgia, which is under 1,000, and the ugliness that infects his attempts to keep that win through gross interference with the vote count.
Was very surprised to see a Republican unopposed on my ballot today – Sandra Wright for Plymouth County Commissioner. It’s the only race in the SouthCoast area with a Republican unopposed. Anyone know why Dems couldn’t field a candidate?