Biden is already running the smartest campaign and a lot of data points are showing this. While most candidates are rolling out the usual laundry list of issues and plans that only a few of us pay any attention to, Biden is saying something very simple and powerful that folks understand: The biggest issue we face as a nation is literally personified by Trump: that Trump is making a mockery of the idea of American leadership, the idea of enlightened leadership for a troubled world and our great nation, etc. Biden is speaking plainly about how Trump (and the Republican Party) is simply not up to the task.
And I think Biden is also getting at rising fears about how fragile our civic, legal, and political systems are and how vulnerable our country is to being led basically back into civil unrest and the breakdown of the rule of law and into autocracy: all of these things so much more easily than any of us ever thought possible. I suspect he has lots of polling/data that has identified this as a key issue for most persuadable and newly motivated (a la 2018 midterms) voters. Buttigieg too is getting a lot of traction because he is addressing this same issue by actually modeling what a young, competent, and thoughtful leader might look and sound like (a lot like Obama, actually, at least soundwise ;)).
He also apparently realizes that PA, MI, WI, and OH are the ticket to winning in 2020 and that unions, many of which are still strong in these states, were once the backbone of working-class political power and the Democratic Party, and represent an indispensable component of a strong Democratic resurgence in the key industrial states that Hilary lost. That’s why he went there first.
I don’t believe Hilary lost because she was a moderate any more than that Trump won because he was the better candidate. Hilary lost because she’s a woman (sexism) and because Trump managed to catch and ride the wave of resentment that had grown through decades of stripping the working class of dignity and living wages.
I sincerely doubt that the presidential race will be a contest of competing policy proposals or visions of capitalist vs socialist solutions. This is not what most people think about or have any clue about. We, of course, need public discussion about new directions and solutions to climate change, poverty, health care, and so much more. But Trump’s erratic behavior and belligerence will by definition make the race about Trump.
I think both Biden and Buttigieg are the only two thinking clearly about this race: It’s about Trump and giving people the choice of a leader and leadership based in decency and other fairly traditional normative values that Trump has defaced and degraded. As I’ve said in other posts, I think people want first and foremost domestic tranquility and normality, not the overturn of even more systems and endless “revolutionary” initiatives. I do actually think that the Green New Deal will have legs precisely because it has the feeling of a resolute but “gentle” way to rally around a world-leading, inherently benevolent national purpose.
Buttegieg and Biden are certainly the two candidates Centrist Dems prefer. If this isn’t clear enough, Buttegieg just met with Hillary Clinton, and Biden is what you get when you look in Obama’s fridge for leftovers just starting to turn. Both are short on policy and ideas, and are running on simply not being as vile as Trump. But didn’t Clinton try this already? I seem to recall that she ran against white-supremacist “Deplorables.” Can anyone two years later remember what policy planks she supported — and meant? Contrast this with Trump. Syphlitic narcissist he may be, at least his base knows what he stands for. And he’s certainly relentless in fighting for it. Already the DNC has launched attacks on the progressive Dems, so we’re seeing a repeat of 2016. And don’t blame progressives when the party of no ideas — trying to play it safe by running pasty white men — goes down in flames again in 2020. And don’t blame sexism. Sure, it exists, but Clinton represents everything that’s wrong with the Democratic Party and the people just weren’t buying it in 2016.
@”Can anyone two years later remember what policy planks she supported — and meant?”:
Yes, absolutely. Her platform included at least the following:
– Build on and expand the ACA
– Reduce college expenses for families making less than $125,000/year
– Comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship
– Overturn Citizens United
– Equal pay
– Increased taxes on the wealthy, no increase for the rest of us
– Oppose the trans-pacific partnership and similar trade deals
– Increase the federal minimum wage
– Expanded background checks for gun buyers
– Increased federal infrastructure funding
Those are ten solid and sincere policy proposals. Each is in diametric opposition to the GOP. Each is consistent with long-standing Democratic values and priorities. Each is likely to be offered in 2020. America would be a far better nation today if our President were promoting these ten (and others) instead of trashing and vandalizing everything within reach.
This comment is chock full of lies, distortions, and half-truths. It is a lie to describe the 2016 campaign as one of “no ideas”. It is a half-truth to say that Ms. Clinton “ran against white-supremacist ‘Deplorables'”. It is a lie to say that the Democratic base did not know and approve of what Ms. Clinton stands for. It is a lie to say that Ms. Clinton “represents everything that’s wrong with the Democratic Party”. It is a lie to say that “people just weren’t buying it in 2016” — Ms. Clinton did, in fact, win the popular vote. Most voters DID, in fact, buy her candidacy.
In my opinion, this comment represents everything that’s wrong with self-professed “Democrats” who STILL berate Ms. Clinton.
I am not a fan of Mr. Biden. I think he’s been wrong too many times in the past, and I see little evidence that his compass is any more accurate looking towards the future. Comments like “what you get when you look in Obama’s fridge for leftovers just starting to turn” are offensive, insulting, and demeaning to your audience.
I have no doubt that there are some “Democrats” who like collections of dishonest cheapshots like this comment.
I am not one of them.
” Oppose the trans-pacific partnership and similar trade deals”
Clinton’s “opposition’ to the TPP was universally regarded at not sincere at the time. And that position was not in “diametric opposition” to the position of the republican candidate, who in fact withdrew from the TPP when he was elected.
I agree that that was one of the weaker elements of her campaign. I agree that some of her critics regarded it as insincere, but those critics regard virtually everything she said the same way.
I was responding to the perhaps rhetorical question “Can anyone two years later remember what policy planks she supported — and meant?”
She did offer that plank and did mean it.
Some of us did take her opposition to TPP as sincere, thank you very much, even if we disagreed with that opposition like I did.
Another member of the Pants Suit Nation heard from.
Another example of offering insult instead of commentary.
… at least they had the good sense to wear pants. Where are yours?
His announcement video was very emotional IMO.
Trump is not the issue, Trump is the symptom of the above statement. Hillary Clinton ran on the message that “Trump is the Issue” and we need to “Hide the Children when Trump is on TV”. We know how that turned out.
What Democrat is willing to address the decades of stripping the working class of dignity and living wages that Democrats themselves were part of? Not Biden, at least judging from the remarks I have heard him make recently (I give the guy a full and complete pass on things he said decades ago) .
“I don’t think 500 billionaires are the reason we’re in trouble. The folks at the top aren’t bad guys. But this gap is yawning, and it’s having the effect of pulling us apart. You see the politics of it.”
This sounds like a speech one would give at a Goldman Sachs event and then refuse to release the transcripts to the people.
If he wins the primary, I’ll hold my nose and vote for him, just as I did with Clinton, and in the morning, I’ll awake to the shock that Trump just pulled off another win.
“. Hillary Clinton ran on the message that “Trump is the Issue” and we need to “Hide the Children when Trump is on TV”
These are lies. Please stop repeating them.
That is absolutely how Clinton campaigned. For that matter, it’s why I voted for her.
Evidence please,
These are not lies Tom. They were the lock stock and barrel of her television campaign.
“They were the lock stock and barrel of her television campaign”
Except for all the other things Ms. Clinton campaigned on.
I agree that the media focused on her attacks on Mr. Trump. I frankly don’t remember her talking about “hide the children…” My Google search for the phrase finds only an opinion column by a third party where the phrase is attributed to Roger Ailes in reference to the 1988 contest between Mike Dukakis and George H. Bush (emphasis mine):
Your comment once again turns the reality of Ms. Clinton’s actual campaign on its ear. I invite you to offer evidence that Ms. Clinton or her campaign used this phrase at all.
This comment strikes me as just more gaslighting about the 2016 election and about Hillary Clinton.
I work out at a YMCA and there are TV sets all across the room…..and prior to the election, every ad I saw from the Clinton campaign was an anti-Trump including this one that I was thinking about. Yeah, you got me….it was not a “hide the children” but was suggesting that we take children out of the room when Trump speaks. Here’s a link
You are correct in that she had bullet points on issues that mattered….but this is the sort of message her campaign ran.
If Biden wins the nomination and runs this sort of crap, it will take generations to overcome the damage that Trump and the Russians will do to this country.
Excuse me? Did you actually watch your own link?
There was NOTHING in that link that said take the children out of the room, hide them, or anything similar.
The title is “Role models”. The message is:
That is NOT about “hiding” or “taking children out of the room”.
It is instead a clear message about US and our responsibility to the future. It is interesting that you so strongly deny this message about the personal responsibility to history that each of us shares.
The fact that you dismiss this as “crap” speaks eloquently to the difference between you and me.
It’s about Trump and the children…….yeah, great ad. Loved the outcome….
It is about ourselves and our responsibilities to our progeny.
In this case, Tom, the difference is that Johntmay is right and you are wrong. For the record, Tom, I liked that ad when it came out, but it didn’t work. It’s not slandering Hillary Clinton to say that the Democrats in 2020 will have to do better, and avoid the mistakes her campaign made.
This blog can easily survive it when someone disses Joe Biden, as in the main post. But your animus toward Johntmay is getting to be a real drag.
“In this case, Tom, the difference is that Johntmay is right and you are wrong.”
Ah, that settles it. I’m so glad you cleared that up.
“This blog can easily survive it when someone disses Joe Biden, as in the main post.”
Except that the main post supports, rather than disses, Joe Biden.
“But your animus toward Johntmay is getting to be a real drag.”
It seems clear enough that this exchange has so distracted you that you forgot what the thread-starter was about.
I wonder about your animus towards me.
Tom you really alienate a lot of natural allies with your insistence that Hillary Clinton was a blameless candidate or that anyone critiquing her campaign is an ally of the Trump administration. I would rather we all stop talking about 2016 and talk about Joe Biden’s strengths and weaknesses in 2020 which is what the thread is about.
Hillary Clinton will never be on the ballot again, and for the record, we all voted for her and wanted her to win. We all are sorely disappointed we have Trump instead. I do think having a discussion about best practices and mistakes to learn from can be positive and productive, but it requires good faith from everyone instead of cheap shots. It’s the latter that continually kills this blogs viability.
@alienate:
There is a middle ground between “blameless candidate” and the outright lies and distortions that I respond to here.
@anyone critiquing her campaign is an ally of the Trump administration:
I invite you to show where I wrote anything remotely like this.
The cheap shots, bad faith, and harping on 2016 in this thread is not coming from me. I share your view that discussion requires that the participants exercise good faith and avoid cheap shots. I think my comments in this thread are consistent with that.
I wonder why you call out me instead of some of the other participants in this exchange.
Here are some cheapshots:
– “Biden is what you get when you look in Obama’s fridge for leftovers just starting to turn”
– “Can anyone two years later remember what policy planks [Hillary Clinton] supported — and meant?”
– “And don’t blame progressives when the party of no ideas — trying to play it safe by running pasty white men — goes down in flames again in 2020”
– “Clinton represents everything that’s wrong with the Democratic Party and the people just weren’t buying it in 2016”
– “Another member of the Pants Suit Nation heard from.”
– “Hillary Clinton ran on the message that ‘Trump is the Issue’ and we need to ‘Hide the Children when Trump is on TV'”
– “This sounds like a speech one would give at a Goldman Sachs event and then refuse to release the transcripts to the people”
None of them are from me. Do you really think the author of the first five is a “natural [ally]”?
I think you’re barking up the wrong tree.
I think the party and this small online slice of it needs to move forward, and do so with as much civility and charity as possible. I know when I find myself falling short of that I take breaks from commenting here. A recent one lasted several months and the most recent one lasted about two weeks and the next one might be coming around the corner. I’m not trying to censor speech or defend someone else’s hurtful comments or cut off debate. I do think we could all be a bit more mindful that there are real people behind these handles and do more to check ourselves from getting out of hand. Also sticking to the original topic and whether or not Biden’s strategy seems like a smart move.
Hillary Clinton campaigned for, and received, 65+ million votes, more than any white man in history and several million more than the specific white man who was declared the winner on a technicality.
What ‘mistakes’ led to that outcome?
Here’s a better question. Who do you support in 2020 and why? I’m really sick of the same three people arguing about 2016. It’s made this blog very boring and unreadable for 3 years. Seriously.
It was just one part of her campaign, though I admit to being one of those who thought (and still has trouble believing and understanding why I was wrong), that she COULD have just pointed out what a DUMB human being Trump is and call it a day.
I think that was the plan, but it was not well executed. I get that Trumps antics make it hard to stay on message, and easy to into react mode..
From and after “deplorables” that’s exactly what the campaign was about. You don’t win elections by telling voters how terrible they are, even if they are. You appeal to the better angels of their nature.
The Clinton campaign went all in on how scummy is Trump and Trump voters after the “grab them” video. The next candidate has to be more disciplined than that.
I think some have since proven that the deplorable parts are the closest they are going to come to angelic in nature…
Gandhi said, and MLK Jr repeated, that if you confront people with their own willingness towards brutality a small portion of them will become even more brutal, but the vast lot of the others will amend their behavior in horror at their own actions. You just have to make them aware of the consequences of their actions.
Some amount of ‘scummy’ accusations have worked to bring down Gary Hart, Robert Packwood, New Gingrich, Bob Livingston and a host of others, and almost brought down the 42 President (a man rumored to be still married to the nominee…) so the Clinton campaign can hardly be faulted for thinking a strategy that succeeded in the past could succeed in the future…
Anything else is simply acquiescing to the movement of the goalposts.
I simply disagree with you.
I think the MEDIA refused to talk about anything except the fight between Ms. Clinton and Mr. Trump. I think there is absolutely nothing Ms. Clinton could have done to avoid that.
I am not saying that Ms. Clinton ran a perfect campaign. I am instead saying that the campaign she ran was better than any other candidate would have been, and was good enough to win a majority of the popular vote.
I think that the most effective way to win the 2020 campaign is to bring in new voters. I think that flatly refusing to talk about the stinking smelly elephant carcass in the room will instead drive those new voters away.
I remind you that the deplorable voters Ms. Clinton called “deplorable” were NEVER going to vote for her. I reject the claim that she lost any significant number of votes by doing so. I think that the value of speaking the truth is that it motivates voters who care about the truth.
Calling deplorable voters “deplorable” is far better than the long list of epithets and insults Mr. Trump cast towards blacks, Hispanics, women, the disabled, and long list of others. Mr. Trump did that knowing full well that he was unlikely to get those votes. He correctly surmised that HIS voters would turn out in droves to support him in response to those deplorable insults.
Donald Trump was right. His statements and actions were and are deplorable. He intentionally pandered and panders to deplorable people who LIKE those statements and actions.
I think there are FAR fewer “undecided” voters going into 2020 than there were going into 2016. I think people already have a very good idea of who and what they like and dislike. I think the 2020 election will hinge on turnout, and I think the best strategy for Democrats is to maximize the turnout of people who embrace the values and priorities of the Democratic Party.
People who support the values and priorities of the Democratic Party are appalled by Donald Trump and Trumpists. They are also appalled by candidates who pretend that those who STILL support Donald Trump and Trumpism are anything but deplorable.
stop calling people who disagree with you “liars.”
Another fascinating comment.
1. I rejected the comments as lies. The word “liar” is yours, not mine. Interesting how you again focus on the person rather than the comment.
2. I have had many exchanges here on many topics where we disagree. I do not call those participants liars.
I am disheartened that in May of 2019 some alleged Democrats are STILL attacking our nominee in 2016. How long must we rebut the same distortions, half-truths, and outright lies?
Joe Biden, whatever we feel about him, was not a candidate in 2016. His 2020 candidacy has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with the 2016 campaign.
Some Democrats are STILL trying to not make the same mistakes we made in 2016. Joe Biden seems to on his way to making those mistakes…go figure
Here is commentary I like and agree with:
If you want to discuss Joe Biden, then discuss Joe Biden.
Honest to god all of us should stfu already about 2016. It’s over. It won’t be repeated.
To the extent that Biden has formed his message it is simply this: Trump sucks. Also, the economy.
To the (far greater) extent that Elizabeth Warren has formed her message it is simply this: The economy. Also, Trump sucks. .
This makes your follow on point, to wit…
…Something of an exercise in irony…
Hillary Clinton ran a near perfect campaign. Her campaign outpolled almost all comers and on election eve she was predicted to win in a landslide. She ended up getting 65+million votes and lost on a technicality that, frankly, is one of the holdovers of our previous iteration as a slave-holding demi-republic. You think the 63 some odd million who voted Trump are going to swing to Biden because logic?
The problem is not Trump. Trump will fade from the scene. The problem is people willing to vote for Trump, despite an overwhelming tsunami of evidence that such a vote is a disastrously bad decision of epic proportions. Once Trump is gone, these people with vote for Ted Cruz or Ted Nugent, or whomever it is that shows up to fellate their prejudices with more abandon.
How else do you think this could end?
I find Mr. Pence particularly terrifying in this regard.
Mr. Pence has an oh-so-carefully smoothed and polished veneer of “nice”. It covers a dark cesspool of superstition, bigotry, conscious ignorance, and personal lust for power — all dressed up in the colors of the flag and pounding the Bible for emphasis.
Donald Trump is the symptom. The disease is MUCH more toxic and pervasive.
Could not agree more. Every time one of my friends mentions some outrageous action by Trump, I agree with their outrage and add, “And what can we do about the 40% of Americans who support this sort of things?” I’d be generous and say that 1/3 of the nation supports this man 100% even if he shot a man on main street, the remaining 10% simply support anyone, even the devil himself, if their wallets and stomachs are full. If the economy tumbles, Trump still holds onto 1/3 of the nation.
As someone said regarding German history, there was a time when 1/3 of Germans murdered another 1/3 of Germans, while the remaining 1/3 of Germans stood silent.
How do we deal with this new reality in the USA?
“How do we deal with this new reality in the USA?”
I wish I knew.
I’m increasingly sure that Ms. Pelosi’s mounting resistance to impeachment is a profound abdication of her responsibility to America.
I wish you knew as well. Then one of us would know….
I agree with your assessment of Ms. Pelosi. I fear that Trump knows much more than he lets onto. There are a lot of very, very wealthy families in this country who are intertwined with con men like Trump. It’s a rigged game and Trump knows it. Pelosi knows it too. No, I am not saying that Pelosi and Trump are part of some conspiracy,but they both know that the working class is getting gored and people like them are the beneficiaries of it, as are their friends, associates, fellow corporate board members, neighbors, golf buddies, the whole lot.
I think that there are only a few members of the Democratic Party willing to admit this. Sanders, Warren Ocasio-Cortez, are a few that come to mind, but they are being radicalized by the media and of course, the media is corporate. I’m watching the love fest this morning on Morning Joe and the Biden Campaign…..Biden, the same Biden who backed NAFTA and the repeal of Glass Stegall…….and Trump is probably picking his new decor for the presidential office of 2020 as he watches….
Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that Ms. Pelosi said that a big margin would somehow cause Mr. Trump to accept a defeat:
This is total rubbish. Surely Ms. Pelosi knows, as do the rest of us, that there is no such margin. This is cowardly crazy-talk from a sitting Speaker of the House.
The outcome of the 2020 election will be determined by the same process that has determined the outcome of every previous election. A president who attempts to resist that should be quietly and quickly removed from federal property, forcibly if need be.
This sort of nonsense is precisely why impeachment is required.
Whatever game Ms. Pelosi is playing has to stop. This has gone on long enough.
While powerless to do so, Republicans voted to end the ACA more than 50 times. Trump campaigned on total elimination of the ACA. Without any evidence at all, Trump rose to political stardom questioning the legitimacy of the Obama presidency.
No half measures. Push as hard as you can for what you believe to be true, even if your odds of winning are slim to none.
With that, they took the house, senate, and presidency.
Now Democrats are afraid to impeach, offering to meet Republicans half way on health care reforms, and looking to appeal to the non-existent “center” in a polarized nation by looking to guys like Joe Biden.
We’re not taking a knife to a gun fight, we’re taking a box of chocolates.