Mitch McConnell
As I absorb the events of September 24, 2019, I find the resolution passed by unanimous consent of the Senate most striking. Mitch McConnell is no neophyte, and I see no evidence that he is motivated by anything except a passion to win at all costs. So I find myself wondering what his strategy might be.
I wonder if we are seeing a “Hail Mary” pass for the 2020 election — act quickly and decisively today to remove Donald Trump from office, and run an incumbent Mike Pence against the Democratic nominee in 2020.
Here’s why I think this might be happening:
1. Donald Trump polls miserably against the leading Democratic candidates.
2. The House is already Democratic and will likely be more so after 2020. Very little new GOP legislation is likely to happen before 2022.
3. The outlook is bleak and getting worse for GOP Senators (including Mitch McConnell) as the campaign unfolds.
4. The leading Democratic contender (Joe Biden) has made defeating Donald Trump the centerpiece of his campaign. Joe Biden is a MUCH weaker candidate against an incumbent President Mike Pence than against President Donald Trump.
The GOP has a third and long on their own 40 with 25 seconds left to play and no timeouts. They are behind by 4, so a field goal doesn’t do it. They need a touchdown. They need a way to win the 2020 elections.
What if the following unfolds:
1. The House impeaches Donald Trump with the impeachment resolution centered around the outrageous attempt by Donald Trump to jeopardize national security by forcing the Ukrainian government to manufacture dirt on Joe Biden.
2. 20 GOP senators follow the lead of several House Democrats from Trumpist districts and cite this deal as a “red line” that every patriotic American must oppose.
3. Donald Trump is therefore convicted in the Senate in mid-2020 — after the primaries, perhaps even after the Democratic National Convention has chosen a nominee in mid-July.
4. Mike Pence becomes President.
5. The 2020 campaign theme of the GOP is “We saved America. We protected our national security.”
If this is happening, who is our best nominee? Should we be in man-to-man or zone? Do we have defenders covering the end zone?
There are a number of Republican senators who are running away from reporters, refusing to comment much less defend Trump’s activity with Ukraine. There are six Republican senators who may lose their seats in 2020 which would put MoscowMitch as the minority leader.
I’m just a produce clerk but if I see this, MoscowMitch sees it.
If he sees minority leader as a near certainty, his only option is to weigh the possibility of a President Pence running in 2020 as the “true savior” of the Republican Party and “American Freedom” and the “Enemy of Socialism”….to stir up the base once again.
Pence is Trump without the hookers, fixers, and Pence actually goes to church.
If I’m MoscowMitch…..I’m looking for the best time to give Trump a call and tell him how it;’s going to be.
I want to know who that guy is who allowed the resolution to pass unanimously, and what has he done with Mitch McConnell?:)
I think Tom and John are clear its the same old guy. A sly fox with another ace up his sleeve.
I’ll believe it when I see it! I definitely do NOT want a President Pence, so I hope this scenario does not play out as you predict it might.
Are you opposed to impeaching Trump, then?
No Christopher, I still want Trump impeached, and made calls to Rep Trahan’s office imploring her to support impeachment a long time ago! But I don’t see how he will get convicted. And I’m afraid of what might happen if he does get convicted.
Obviously we get Pence as President, but given how extreme he is I think he is very beatable.
I don’t like it either. That dislike is what keeps me from dismissing it.
As we hear more and more today, I think this scenario becomes more and more likely.
President Pence is a MUCH tougher candidate that President Trump.
We too must put country over party, and Pence would at least be more competent.
Understood, and I absolutely agree.
I think we might find ourselves facing President Pence and a GOP senate coming out of the 2020 elections.
Mike Pence has been a complete lackey for the past three years. Also, he’s up to his ears in this Ukraine mess.
Even so, we need the senate to remove Trump and I don’t see Moscow Mitch agreeing to oust Trump AND Pence out to deliver the presidency to Pelosi.
“The leading Democratic contender (Joe Biden) has made defeating Donald Trump the centerpiece of his campaign. Joe Biden is a MUCH weaker candidate against an incumbent President Mike Pence than against President Donald Trump.”
If you’re acknowledging Joe Biden as the strongest challenger to Trump, why would he be a weaker challenger to Pence?
1. I have never acknowledged Joe Biden as the strongest challenger. Please reread my words that you quoted — I said that he has made defeating Donald Trump the centerpiece of his campaign. That’s got nothing to do with his strength or weakness in polling.
2. If Mike Pence is the incumbent President, then ALL of the attacks and criticism of Donald Trump are yesterday’s news. In this scenario, Donald Trump has already been removed from office because he has been shown to be a common criminal and mostly likely also shown to be a Russian asset. Mike Pence will claim that he nothing about any of that and would never have supported Mr. Trump if he did. All those attacks on Donald Trump from Joe Biden are immediately neutralized.
A race between the Democratic nominee and Mike Pence will therefore be about who is best positioned to lead America from 2020 to 2024. Mike Pence and the GOP will be saying “We saved America from this criminal. We accomplished in 3 months what the Democrats failed to do in 3 years. We will be in the majority in the Senate, and President Pence will work hand-in-hand with Senate Majority Leader McConnell to do everything that the Democrats stopped us from doing with their dishonest grandstanding.”
In that scenario, the 2020 campaign will therefore be a contest between the vision of America from 2020 to 2024 espoused by the Democratic nominee versus that espoused by Mike Pence. It will be contest of ideas. Ideas for the future, not ideas of the past.
I think that precisely because Joe Biden has been all about Donald Trump, Joe Biden is made irrelevant by Donald Trump’s removal from office.
I, of course, acknowledge that Joe Biden leads current polling about which Democrat is mostly likely to win the Democratic nomination (facts are facts).
I don’t think that has anything to with Mr. Biden’s strength against Donald Trump. It instead measures Mr. Biden’s strength against his fellow Democrats — the data also suggests that that is VERY volatile and transient.
More specifically – Joe Biden thinks Mike Pence is “a decent man.” I fear that race would have incredibly low turnout. I’m sure we’ll see polls coming out about the prospects but I have a hard time believing Pence would be a strong candidate – and polls now would be based on the idea of Pence. He is really not one for the spotlight and I don’t think he would perform well with a lot of attention – zero charisma, incredibly stern. reminds you of a silent father that no one wants.
You’re exactly right about Biden’s campaign. It rests 100% on Trump. In the Warren and Sanders campaigns, Trump is (correctly) just a symptom of more important issues (as is Pence). They have a vision of the future. Biden has a vision of Trump not being President and it ends there.
What if Trump resigns (I think the chances of removal by conviction in the Senate are just around 0%) midway through the primaries in which Biden has built up a strong lead? I’m depressed just thinking about the prospect.
Puke wall is cracking as 44 to 41 favor impeachment today from Rasmusssan poll.
Yep. And Trump might even be throwing him under the bus, Nixon style.
I’m going to write a diary about this soon, but I want to remind us of what I’ve been saying for awhile — isn’t this just another example of Mr. Trump doing all he can to inflict as much damage as possible on America?
And speaking of people being thrown under buses, it looks to me as though Mr. Putin put the screws on Donald Trump to sabotage US support of Ukraine, and to do so using a flagrantly impeachable mechanism. The result is that we and the world focus all our attention on Donald Trump and his impeachment, and ignore the continuing Russian threat to Ukraine — a threat made even more immediate by the illegal acts of the Trump administration.
So it looks to me like Vladimir Putin is intentionally throwing Donald Trump under the Russian bus. It makes perfect sense to me that Mr. Trump will take as many people as possible with him.
I do wonder — given his reported death threat against the whistleblower’s sources today — how much blood will flow in removing Mr. Trump and his fellow Russian assets from government.
Trump, if his phone call had not been exposed, would have become a Ukrainian asset; he would owe them a favor and would be subject to blackmail.
Indeed, my understanding is that that is one of the national security risks identified by the whistleblower and confirmed by the IG.
My point would be that we should be skeptical of all the foreign policy decisions of this administration, not just the ones that are “soft on Putin.” There may be improper foreign influence coming from any number of sources.
Absolutely.
One thing I’ll push back on in the OP, which I largely agree with, is that Pence would be more electable than Trump. Trump won the NH primary and the MA primary, and he did so by winning over secular conservatives who are skeptical of religious and racial identity politics alike.
The typical Callahan and Carr listener likes porn, alcohol, and gambling and probably wants nothing to do with Pence and his religiosity.
I noticed the usually obnoxious Trump signs on one of the houses in my neighborhood was conspicuously absent yesterday. I think the bait cutting has already begun.
I agree with you about NH voters.
Nevertheless, mid-America evangelical voters are a key constituency for Mr. Trump. I’ve read of and personally heard several of those name Mr. Pence as a reason why they feel that Donald Trump was “raised up by God to save America”.
Their claim is that Donald Trump was “raised up” to “break the grip of the godless liberal left”, and putting Mike Pence in power is the real object of the exercise.
While I’m horrified at that theme, I’ve heard it more than once.
I find myself wondering what the Russians have on Mr. Pence.