Who I think will win
1. Biden
2. Bernie
3. Warren
4. Buttigieg
Who I want to win
1. Bernie/Warren
2. Booker
3. Biden
4. Buttigieg
Biden has kept his 30% floor and it’s not going to other candidates. He’s reassembled the black voter/white voter without college coalition that led to the pre-Obama nominees. The white college candidate usually loses (Hart, Simon, Tsongas, Bradley, and Dean). Right now Warren has lost a slice of that voted to Buttigieg who in depressing Warren in IA and NH may have the affect of benefiting Biden who was not winning either state in most polls or Bernie who has risen above Warren.
Politico has a great piece outlining this with a money quote from Paul Begala:
You’re sitting down for breakfast and there’s a steaming pile of s*** on your table and you say, ‘Can we get this s*** off of my table?’” he told me recently. “And Elizabeth says, ‘I’m going to build you a new house!’ And Bernie says, ‘I’m going to build you a new city!’ And I’m like, no, just get this f****** s*** off my kitchen table and we’ll get back to normal life!”
Jonathan Martin also points out that Warren and Bernie crowd one another out and both are playing a mid game strategy of seeing who comes ahead in the early states. There’s a real risk here they end up splitting the pool of non-Biden voters the way non-Trump candidates did in 2016. Buttigieg’s struggle connecting to young people and voters of color will keep him from winning the nomination.
These are some of the reasons he’s dropped down in my own personal rankings of who I want to win. I met him in NH early in the race and came away very impressed, but I question his sincerity since he’s pivoted away from the progressive stances he seemed to take when he entered the race. Also a two term mayor of a small city just seems risky with the policy priorities I want to see.
Warren’s bold gamble on health care also turned me off from her as me first choice. After her backtracking it seems like an odd compromise between the direct and radical change Bernie is talking about and Medicare for those who want it. It’s definitely wonkier policy, but that does not win campaigns. She’s tied for first for me with Bernie. Whichever one of them wins the early states will get my progressive vote to block Biden. A nominee I’m honestly perfectly fine with as a president, I just worry about his luck running out after the nomination or if the Burisma stuff becomes this years emails. Can he inspire youth and Latinos in the general? All open questions.
Booker gets my honorable mention since he should have done better. He’s a candidate capable of bridging that progressive/moderate divide and has some genuinely radical ideas like baby bonds and criminal justice reform. He’s a charter guy and I’m totally opposed, but I do hope to see him in the next debate. He ran a better and more consistent campaign than Harris, just failed to break out in a crowded field.
I thought Warren and Bernie performed best in the debate, with Klobuchar coming in third.
Warren and Bernie did their thing. Warren was smart and strong on all her strengths and on the attack. Bernie went to his talking points like always, which can be frustrating, but the passion and clarity is important. Also like always, I don’t think the debates help Bernie expand his base. No one who likes him gets turned off, though – the key to his campaign is 100% on-the-ground organizing.
Warren was good and passionate. I don’t think it was spectacular enough to change the dynamic of the race.
Klobuchar was strong and I loved how she went after Pete’s experience. Klobuchar wants us to trust her experience but she does not offer a compelling vision of what her leadership would look like. Maybe she’s someone that would be good for Senate leader (although voting for 2/3ds of Trump’s judicial nominees is really bad).
Biden did his thing and it seems that debates (so far) won’t be the thing that will doom him. I’m increasingly thinking that he will be the nominee and the only way for someone else to win is for that person to sweep the early states and ride momentum into Super Tuesday.
Steyer was pretty good. He has no chance. I hope he spends his money dragging Trump down and registering voters.
Yang is funny but woefully unprepared. It’s almost sad, but he’s good-natured.
I’m going to say it clear. I really dislike Buttigieg. Personally. I think he is a lying creep with no values whatsoever. I hope his snarling performance tonight will get the deserved bad press that will bring him down.
Almost ready to uprate until your really negative final paragraph.
Klobuchar was really going Christie on Pete’s Rubio.
I want Pete to run statewide and win this time. I like him, but I also don’t feel like I can trust him in the issues. At least Biden is honest about what he wants to do.