Terry McAuliffe was co-chairman of President bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign, chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 2001 to 2005, and chairman of Hillary Clinton’s 208 presidential campaign…and he just got spanked and shellacked in the Virginia’s governor’s race.
Can we please run genuine, working class, of the people, honest to goodness Democrats, not Democrats sympathetic to Republican values, and hold onto the house and senate in 2022?
Or should we just give up now and save our political donation dollars?
Please share widely!
It doesn’t sound as though you know Virginia or Virginians very well.
I’m not sure who you think would have been a better candidate in Virginia. If you think a Bernie Sanders style “progressive” would have done better, I fear you’re mistaken.
The Republican candidate in Virginia got great traction with Virginia voters by serving up the same lies as the rest of the GOP. For example, he made a big deal about opposing critical race theory in VA public schools — except that critical race theory isn’t taught in VA public schools.
Today’s VA race was all about white supremacy. Nobody wants to say it, the mainstream networks don’t want to talk about it, and this thread-starter ignores it.
Today’s VA governor’s race had little or nothing to do with “working class” and everything to do with “white”.
Were these people white supremacists a year ago when they voted for Joe Biden by 10 points? I wasn’t sure whether to uprate or downrate your comment. Uprate it because most of your points are true. Downrate because I think you are doing exactly what JohnTMay warned about –throwing up your hands and writing off voters who voted Democratic 12 months ago.
I don’t claim to know the formula for winning Virginia. John’s suggestion for getting away from party insiders like McAuliffe sounds like a good start, though.
Yes.
In 2020, they either didn’t vote or held their nose and voted for Mr. Biden because Donald Trump was so abysmally bad.
It’s a similar dynamic to the battleground states that put Mr. Trump in office in 2016. Donald Trump was the first major party candidate since George Wallace to so explicitly advocate white supremacy, and the deplorable segment of the population turned out to support him because of that.
Glenn Youngkin was able to blow all the dog whistles while preserving the illusion of respectability.
“Today’s VA race was all about white supremacy.”
As a black woman was elected Lt. Gov and a Cuban American elected Attorney General. How about New Jersey where Gov. Murphy is in a fight for his political life? Was that race about white supremacy too?
I think we’re talking about a continuum, not an either-or.
I’m saying that white supremacy motivated the extraordinary turnout of GOP voters in yesterday’s VA election. Are you going to argue that Jason Miyares is not white?
I hope you’ll agree that Clarence Thomas shows that being black does not inoculate a person from the toxin of white supremacy. Many people familiar with racial dynamics of the south understand that reality — many people unfamiliar with the region do not.
Yes, by construction.
The GOP is, today, the party that explicitly advocates white supremacy. That is what “Make America Great Again” means, for crying out loud.
Any elected official, contributor, or voter who self-identifies with today’s GOP explicitly or implicitly endorses white supremacy.
Issues do not matter, at least none of the issues that we Democrats like to talk about.
If that is correct, how did Biden do so well?
No, of course a Sanders style would not win, but from what I hear from friends of mine who live in Virginia, McAuliffe ran a dull lifeless campaign, reminiscent of Hillary 2016, and our own Martha Coakley.
I am not going to blame the voters on this one.
So in other words, three people who were never going to get the reaction of teenage girls at Beatles concerts. That’s just not their personality, but that does not mean they would not have done an excellent job in the positions they ran for.
Because Donald Trump was so extreme that he alienated even the white supremacist suburban voters that would otherwise vote GOP.
Mr. Youngkin did a masterful job of hitting all the dog whistles of that white supremacist GOP base while showing them that he was not an insane willfully ignorant autocrat with the attention span of a gnat.
Then it isn’t surprising that you come to an incorrect answer and once again blame Democrats as well.
It seems to me that you are explicitly refusing to even consider the major motivating force for today’s GOP.
He also kept just enough distance from Trump to be palatable. I think blaming this one on white supremacy is a bit too simplistic.
What else do you think motivates today’s GOP voters?
In order for Younkin to win he needed a lot more than that hardcore base. I didn’t say it wasn’t a factor at all, just that it was simplistic as an explanation.
I fear that you are being “simplistic” here.
Of course he needed more than just a “hardcore base”.
The implicit and unconscious bias towards white supremacy is pervasive in Virginia. How many elected officials in Massachusetts wore blackface in college and post-college? I assume you remember the uproar about that in 2019, in Virginia, with a sitting Democratic governor.
Mr. Youngkin needed just enough votes to put him ahead of his Democratic opponent. The question is how he peeled off the independents and “wobbly” Democrats in November of 2021 who either didn’t vote or who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
And I’m asserting that he did that by appealing to that pervasive white supremacist bias that is rampant within the Virginia electorate (and not just in VA, either).
He did more than just distance himself from Donald Trump. He distanced himself from Donald Trump AND showed his fealty to the current GOP white supremacy hot buttons.
Mr. Youngkin didn’t just randomly pick CRT (Critical Race Theory) as his target.
Here’s a quote from a recent appearance Mr. Youngkin made in Charlottesville (https://www.cbs19news.com/story/45088088/republican-candidate-glenn-youngkin-campaigns-in-charlottesville):
Do you see what he did there? He went to the site of a horrific, violent, and brutal attack by white supremacists. Then he blew the dog-whistle:
“This is Virginians standing up against the left progressive agenda,”
What he meant by “left progressive agenda” is the Congressional Black Caucus, the Progressive Caucus, and so on.
His audiences are NOT responding to any left-vs-right distinction — he made that clear in his own words. It’s “Virginians” standing up against … fill in the blank.
By “Virginians”, he really meant “White Virginians”.
The outcome of this razor-thin election was determined by the skill of Mr. Youngkin at pandering to the most base instincts of his audience while separating himself from Donald Trump.
That is all about white supremacy.
First it was racism, now you are diluting the term “white supremacy”. Words mean something. In this case supremacy means over and above, a conscious belief that the white race is “supreme” over other races and that said other races do not merit entry into the club of America or humanity. I’ve said that those who voted for Trump himself are too tolerant of those attitudes for my tastes, but I will not go that far with all Youngkin voters. White Supremacist cannot and should not be defined as simply “anyone who disagrees with me on racially adjacent matters”. You and I understand that strictly speaking, CRT is not being taught in K-12 public schools, but there is definitely a sense among moderates, and even a few liberals on the ground, that there is a politically correct agenda being pushed. There has to be SOME term that we can all agree to only use to define active members of KKK or neo-Nazi organizations.
Just as you do with racism, you choose to so narrowly define concepts like “white supremacy” that they become meaningless. Specifically, you attach “conscious” to your definition — making it useless and missing the entire point.
The reason to talk about it is that it is NOT conscious. It is a “creepy” feeling when a black man enters the room. It is a feeling of fear when three black teenagers pass on the street — fear that is not present when three white teenagers pass by.
Texas has banned the topic of evolution from biology textbooks for generations. Because Texas is the largest single market for textbooks, the result is that generations of Americans study biology and graduate with little if any understanding of how arguably the most important single principle of biology works.
In a similar way, this movement seeks to block any and all teaching about arguably the most important single divide in contemporary American culture — with gender issues and sexism being its closest competitor.
It is not coincidental that the same political forces that advance the white supremacist agenda also fight “culture wars” against abortion, artificial contraception, and now even vaccines.
There are a great many to choose from. Let me offer a few examples:
There is a HUGE middle ground between wearing a white hood and voting based on facts, reason, and civil debate.
I don’t know what the phrase “racially adjacent matters” even means. I did not ever assert that ALL Youngkin voters consciously believe that whites are superior.
This thread is about what caused the dramatic shift in Virginia votes from 2020 to 2021. That is, in turn, a question about forcing functions and influence.
In discussions about climate change, a frequent canard offered by deniers is something along the lines of “atmospheric CO2 cannot possibly account for all of the warming we’ve seen”. No scientist claims that it accounts for ALL of the warming. The factual observation is, instead, that it is the single strongest FORCING FUNCTION. Among the many forces that result in the atmosphere being warmer than the space that surrounds the earth, the increase in concentration of atmospheric CO2 is the single largest contributor to the dramatic increase in heat retained within the atmosphere.
In an analogous way, of the many forces that contributed to the outcome of the 2021 Virginia election, I suggest that white supremacy — conscious or unconscious — is the single largest contributor to the dramatic shift in votes from the Democratic to the Republican candidates.
I would submit that most Virginians are not even unconsciously or subconsciously racist or white supremacist. I would call the creepiness and fear you describe (and even that is a foreign concept to me) as prejudice while saving stronger words for stronger feelings. There has been a margin of people on the prejudiced to white supremacist spectrum who have voted for Republicans since Nixon, but plenty of their voters also believe legitimately in lower taxes, less regulation, strong national defense, etc. I’m aware of Texas’s outsized influence on the textbook market, but apparently never actually encountered them. I don’t believe I have personally read a science text that does not discuss evolution or a history text that doesn’t discuss race – Massachusetts privilege maybe?
Like many partisan nominees, McAuliffe earned the privilege to run by being chosen by primary voters. Also, it was a close race in a state that has only trended D relatively recently so I would not characterize it as “spanked” or “shellacked” – he just lost because someone had to. He might have had a better night if Dems had delivered in DC (not that that really makes any sense), but there progressives seemed to be holding up getting at least something done to show for their efforts.
Republicans had a reason to vote. They fought to keep CRT out of our schools. They fought to give parents a voice in local education. Yes, I am fully aware that CRT is not being taught in the schools. Yes, I am aware that parents DO have a voice in local education. But the voters did not know that. All they knew was that their votes would help get something done.
Running on the “I am not Trump and my opponent is” – while Trump is no longer president – is not enough to energize the Democrats to vote and not enough for the swing voters (yes, they do still exist) to vote for the Democrat.
My suggestion is not not run against Trump but to run against what Democrats fear about Trump; promote policy that fights what Trump represents.
I enthusiastically agree with you about this.
I hope you’ll agree that in VA, “keep[ing] CRT out of our schools” is a thinly-veiled euphemism for refusing to teach the truth about Virginia culture. That IS a racist dog-whistle, and the voters of Virginia eagerly responded.
Pretending that that response has something to with charisma or campaign chops is missing the point.
I agree with your observation about how Democrats must run. I think it’s worth noting that in cultures like Virginia, the results of that are likely to be less rewarding than we Democrats want.
The bottom line is that a great many Virginia voters do, in fact, implicitly believe in white supremacy. That belief motivates them to energetically turn out when a candidate blows the correctly-pitched dog whistle.
Sure, yes, no argument, there are white supremists in Virginia, and plenty of them out here on the Cape where I live. Yes, no question these people are never, ever, going to vote for a Democrat and they are easily motivated to vote with dog whistles…heck, they saw that they could toss the dog whistles and use a siren!
Democrats will never get their votes and Democrats have no control over their turnout on election day.
We can choose to give up and surrender to the racists, or, we can look at the voters who are not racist; find what motivates them, and run a positive campaign that gives them a dose of enthusiasm.
I was in sales for most of my working life. I did well. I never mentioned my competitors with my customers. Quite frankly, is buy my product because theirs is awful a decent sales pitch?
Sure, I knew the shortcomings of my competitors and in my sales pitch, I would highlight the corresponding strengths of mine in a comparison I knew the customer would make. The idea is to give them reason to buy mine, not reasons to not buy theirs.
McAuliffe had a point when he kept pleading with Congress to get something done and yes, they, we, let him down, so let’s all learn from this, eh?
How many of your competitors were offering kickbacks to your prospects? Were you ever aware of such offers?
If you knew that Xyz Corp was, in fact, offering significant (and illegal) kickbacks, what did you do?
I ask this because it seems to me that today’s GOP is intentionally corrupting the game itself.
It’s all well and good to say that its unsportsmanlike to argue with a referee. That works when the referees are genuinely neutral.
If there is compelling and credible evidence that a specific team has been bribing referees for years or decades, what is the correct response when the referee who is known to be on the take rules that the receiver was out of the end-zone and nullifies the score?
I agree that we should all learn from this. I agree that the Democratic infighting in Congress has hurt everybody.
As I see it, the problem we have here is that the GOP has politicized the very rules of the game itself. It’s more than just “the other guys are awful”.
The cold reality is that the “other guys” really DO seek to replace representative democracy with authoritarian rule-by-whites. That really IS what all this is about.
I think it’s mistake to behave as if that is not the case.
Yup, they are. Maybe it’s time that the Democrats inform voters what that means.
I’m a retired white male. How does that hurt me?
If she is a forty year old mother of three with a husband who works in finance, how does that hurt her?
If I am a young Hispanic man employed as a delivery driver at Amazon, how does that hurt me?
What is the downside of authoritarian rule-by-whites?
Does it mean wages will stagnate? Does it mean my prescription drugs will be unaffordable? Does it mean that each year, by health care insurance co-pays eat up more of my paycheck?
I agree with you about this.
The cynic in me whispers in my ear that a great many incumbent and/or powerful Democrats do NOT want this to be openly discussed.
It is not accidental that first round of winnowing in the current Democratic Party primary process is done by lily-white state electorates (or worse, caucuses).
Joe Biden was nearly knocked out of the 2020 primaries because of this.
Um, the Democratic primary electorate is usually LESS proportionally white than the overall population. I suspect that is the case in VA.
That completely misses the point!
There are essentially no blacks in Iowa, New Hampshire, or any of the other early states in the Democratic Primary 2020 schedule.
“Proportionally white” is meaningless — there aren’t enough black voters in those early states to have any meaningful voice at all.
” Unlike Trump, Terry McAuliffe was man enough to read the numbers and concede, instead of spreading a lot of whiny ‘you cheated’ bullsh*t.” Stephen King
I agree.
It’s also worth observing that Mr. McAuliffe has thereby closed the door on fund-raising for the next two election cycles based on the fraudulent claim that the election was “stolen” from him.
Donald Trump has taught the GOP leadership how to use fraud and lies to amass enormous piles of cash and power for its own corrupt purposes.
It is not very different, to me, from the way that Jim Bakker bilked their gullible “believers” by shamelessly pandering to their superstitions.
Mr. Bakker was investigated, prosecuted, convicted, and incarcerated.
The rule of law has not yet been applied to equally corrupt GOP co-conspirators.
Fred, I hope you congratulated your neighbor on this Virginia election.
Pukes use dog whistle racism like CRT as a proxy for cultural war which Dems have to get better at fighting.
Youngkin kissed the lying Traitor’s ass but he didn’t drink the kool-aid.
I thought we were talking about VA. The first place status of IA and NH did evolve pretty much accidently. State provisions set those calendars and the DNC never had a meeting where someone said let’s deliberately put two white states first. I have in fact defended that happenstance to give our non-base a first crack at who might be electable (and recall that Obama winning the IA caucus was a huge boost for him). Given where I live I am also very biased in favor of NH keeping its status.
No doubt — thus demonstrating that motivation is utterly irrelevant.
The fact is that, regardless of intent, black Democratic voters were EXCLUDED from the 2020 primary until — I think — “Super Tuesday”. They were not excluded because anybody sat in a room smoking cigars and saying “Let’s make sure no blacks can vote”.
They were excluded because the accidental and happenstance process resulted in the crucial initial primaries — crucial in terms of campaign contributions — being held in states with no significant black populations.
When Joe Blow becomes a multimillionaire by winning the lottery, it does not mean that playing the lottery is a good financial management strategy.
In my view, the purpose of a primary is to select the candidate that is both most likely to prevail in the general election and also best represents the values and priorities of the entire party.
We do not do that by perpetuating a process that excludes what is becoming a majority demographic segment of the party.
New Hampshire is among the LEAST representative states in the nation.
Like I say, I think non-base going first may have its advantages, but what may convince me otherwise is if someone could credibly demonstrate (while acknowledging that hypotheticals are impossible to absolutely prove) that in years the Dem nominee lost a different sequence would have produced a different nominee AND said different nominee would have won. If anything 2020 proved the first two states do not have an absolute lock on determining the nominee and the one most representative of the party as a whole ultimately did prevail.
That completely misses the point.
The assertion that you are disputing is that the current Democratic primary process has the effect of suppressing the voice of black Democrats.
Your response is solely focused on winning.
I have no doubt that suppressing the black vote can lead to a victory. Surely that is the thesis that the GOP has built its future upon.
The Democratic Party should listen to — not suppress — black voters.
It is not suppression to not be first. Tell that to the states which routinely bring up the rear in the primary calendar. Not everyone can be first unless you have a single day when every state has its primary, and that has its own issues. Heavily black SC is still very early in the calendar, and BTW with just a handful of exceptions the Republicans have their primaries on the same days we do since many state legislatures rather than state parties set the date. A party’s job IS to win elections – that is entirely the point. However, any party worth its salt is going to try to win as many votes as possible from whatever background.
We’ve gone over this at great length here.
The plain fact is that the Joe Biden campaign was teetering on the edge of collapse by the time the SC primary took place. Another plain fact is that the resurgence of his campaign was viewed as a “great comeback”.
It was not.
Mr. Biden’s popularity was just as strong among black primary voters at the time of the NH primary as it was when he swept the heavily-black states. He was nearly eliminated because the primary process ensured that it was literally impossible to measure that popularity.
That standard excludes inclusion of values and priorities — and has been my objection to your position about the MA Democratic Party for years.
I want my party’s job to be to ensure that our elected government reflects my values and priorities.
I knew full well that George McGovern was going to lose to Richard Nixon. By your standard, the Democratic Party should have nominated another pro-war anti-student hard-hat candidate — because that’s what it took to win the 1972 election. I have rejected that standard my entire life.
If the Democratic Party wants me to continue to self-identify as a Democrat, then that party had better start ACTING — not talking — as though it cares about fundamental ideas such as:
The 2024 Democratic Primary calendar is, so far as I can tell, unchanged from the 2020 calendar. The Democratic Party is sending a very clear message to black voters at this very moment.
I will be even less receptive to oh-my-god-where-did-we-go-wrong in December of 2025 than I am now.
This party is turning its back on and betraying the values and priorities that have historically defined it. I’m not receptive to excuses and rationalizations for that betrayal.
McGovern was nominated before primaries dominated the process like they do today so its a bit apples and oranges. I haven’t really considered whom I would have supported in that race, but part of me thinks that like with Reagan-Mondale in 1984 it may not have mattered. The voters decide who reflects our values and priorities and ultimately they did that in 2020. If anything 2020 demonstrates that someone who is the preference of the widest cross-section of the party CAN overcome losses in NH and IA. My guess is Biden stuck it out longer than others who lost those two states precisely because he saw SC up next and had reason to be optimistic about it.
If we go back further we see that the calendar has not definitively acted against the interests of black voters. In 2016, HRC was their choice and she did well in states where they have substantial numbers. She became the nominee AND won the popular vote. In 2008, many black voters started out with HRC out of loyalty to the Clintons, but then switched to Obama in large part because the IA caucuses proved his electability among a white electorate. Of course both of us are implicitly assuming that white voters and black voters are monolithic within themselves and their is tension between those interests, neither of which I am comfortable assuming anyway.
I’m very much of the “if it ain’t broke” camp on this and I see no evidence that it’s broke. I share your frustration that Dems don’t seem to move very fast on issues, but that’s because our “majority” includes Manchin and Sinema, not because of the primary calendar. If other states had been first all along I’d probably be fine with that too. If I were creating a calendar from scratch I would start with the states with the widest gaps in the previous cycle since the close states get all the attention in the general. However, I know you will pry FITN status out of NH’s cold dead hands and I just don’t think it’s worth the fight when you can’t prove a material benefit in terms of electoral fortunes.
The fact about this election is that the Democratic party is poorly placed to run against a private equity apparatchik tax dodger who went from Mckinsey to the Carlyle Group and made $440 Million. It should be easy to get ordinary working people to hate this guy. But that would take a party that is not beholden to the exact same kind of people.
If the race is between two different kinds of corporate hacks, white people will choose the most racist one, unfortunately.