With the news this morning that Manchin is forcing Biden to bend the knee, I think we (or rather the Democratic leadership) has a singular opportunity to pull the rug out and to spend money in other states. With the tornado and weather devastation impacting southern states, we can now push BBB and get Rand and McConnell on board (since they are now both begging for money) to sign on which then pulls the rug out from Manchin. If we do not get at least one more Senate seat between now and 2024, we are going to be back in this legislative morass, and if the Republicans regain the center seat in 2024 we’ll have no firewall to protect people not just in this country, but specifically here in Massachusetts.
Please share widely!
This is exactly right. The Democratic leadership should be (and should have been) constantly looking for GOP Senators who might be cajoled or bullied into supporting BBB.
What happened today only underscores that the progressive wing of the party was right to warn about giving up the leverage of the infrastructure bill before passing BBB. Biden said he would still get this bill done but he WHIFFED!
I don’t think for one second that Manchin would be more amenable to BBB if the infrastructure bill were still hanging in the balance. If anything, today’s news makes me more glad we moved forward with what we could get. I’m tempted to tell Manchin that he should write his own bill with as much as he is willing to pay for and that’s what we will vote on for now. There was never any leverage because I don’t see Manchin dying on the infrastructure hill. I also don’t know how successful recruiting Republicans would be though I am tempted to put them and Manchin in a tight spot by bringing BBB to a vote anyway and let them defend their nays. Can’t blame Biden for someone else’s intransigence. We just have to accept that we really don’t have a progressive majority and that Biden had virtually no coattails. I’d be tempted to suggest Manchin switch parties, but that would give the Republicans the official majority including committee chairs and the ability to set the agenda. I hope Manchin is stripped of his chairmanship, which he never should have had anyway on account of being out of step with the party on issues over which that committee has jurisdiction.
Joe Manchin is frustrating because West Virginia is frustrating.
We should pour money into West Virginia reminding them what the Democrats offer and what the GOP strips away. We should do the same in Kentucky.
It is preposterous for Mr. Manchin to head the energy Committee when he is a climate change denier. If Mr. Schumer were a war-time general, that’s an example of a stick Mr. Manchin should be being hit with — “If you want to remain chair, you will vote with us on BBB and on reforming the filibuster”.
I think this is exactly the wrong interpretation.
Joe Manchin is known for being tenaciously stubborn. The idea of using public shame to force him to support the progressive agenda was stillborn from inception.
We should now do what we should have done when this whole charade began — strip the BBB of whatever Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema will not support, pass what they will support, call the result “victory” and move on.
In my view, what happened today only underscores what happens when a minority viewpoint with the party tries to force its will upon an evenly-divided Senate.
Nobody “whiffed” at this — it was an unhittable wild pitch from the moment it left the pitcher’s hand.
This isn’t Manchin or Sinema. It’s Biden.
Repetition does not improve accuracy.
OK, cards on the table time. What pray tell could Biden have done to beat those Senators into submission?
Kind of pathetic to ask now. I’ve been posting for months. First, make it clear that this bill is your highest priority by holding the infrastructure bill hostage. Second, keep probing the 50 Republicans who are against this. Do you really think that any of them are honor bound to Mitch McConnell out of personal loyalty? Any of them can be had for a price. Notice that when Biden wants to do something really crappy, like selling arms to Saudi Arabia, he gets plenty of Republican votes. Quietly get the message to Senator Epi Pen that if Biden gets to 50 votes without him, the Senator from West Virginia will get nothing.
This is so elementary that it should be an embarrassment that it should have to be explained repeated, even on BMG. It’s how politics is done. It’s why we have legislatures instead of deciding everything by referendum.
Biden knows this–remember he ran as somebody who has been in the Senate for 35 years and knows how to get things done.
The fact that he didn’t get this done means to me that he didn’t feel any particular urgency to do so. Maybe he feels like all he has to do is appoint a few judges and that’s enough to prove he’s not as bad as Trump
Not for a second do I believe that Biden is incapable of doing what is necessary to pass this bill. He just doesn’t particularly care.
You’ve described a process for handing the Senate to the GOP.
I don’t even know who you mean by “Senator Epi Pen”.
Joe Biden won’t get to 50 votes without him. More of that elementary stuff.
You’re crying over spilt milk. It’s time to dry the tears and move on.
I believe Epi-Pen refers to Manchin, or more literally his daughter who is in the business of making those.
Nothing is more certain than that Biden’s continued ineffectiveness will hand the Senate and the House to the Republicans in the mid-terms.
Followed of course, by people on this blog blaming the families who lost child tax credits under Joe, graduates who never got the debt relief Joe promised, and seniors who never got the extension of Medicare benefits, etc., etc. In the BMG fantasy world, these people will be written off as purists.
Check the polls for Biden’s new lack of popularity among younger voters. It’s happening already.
I wonder if you’ll be as eager to provide kudos to Joe Biden after BBB (in some form) passes in the New Year. I doubt it.
Perhaps you can offer some polls that show that Joe Manchin will gain West Virginia votes by supporting BBB in its current form.
The only way any of the things we all want will happen is if the several states are blocked from overturning legitimate votes in the 2022 and subsequent elections.
The most important task right now is to save representative democracy in America. Any Democrat who blocks the solution to that task IS a purist and should be loudly named as such.
“I wonder if you’ll be as eager to provide kudos to Joe Biden after BBB (in some form) passes in the New Year. I doubt it.”
Reducing everything to a loyalty test–again.
Not so much loyalty as consistency, though yes, a little bit of loyalty to a Dem President on a blog called BLUE Mass Group would be nice.
I absolutely plead “guilty” to proposing a hypocrisy test.
At least a couple of those I don’t believe Biden ever promised. Plus, you can’t blame a President for “broken promises” when it’s Congress that doesn’t go along.
“I don’t even know who you mean by ‘Senator Epi Pen'”
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/09/manchin-large-campaign-contributions-epipen-scandal/
Referring to people by cutesy names is no more effective when you do it than we anybody else does it here.
Namecalling like that impedes rather than advances constructive discussion.
When you have no other argument, change the subject and whine about tactics. And stamp your feet.
And look in the mirror, apparently 🙁
Change the subject? Are you kidding?
I’m rejecting your attempt to pivot to a personal attack on Mr. Manchin.
I’m also calling out your juvenile schoolyard insults. I don’t like it when others here do it — and I’ve called them out — and I don’t like it when you do it.
We are talking about “Joe Manchin”, “Mr. Manchin” or perhaps “Senator Manchin”.
So far as I can tell, it is you who is attempting to pivot away from an actual substantive argument.
To wit:
I haven’t seen you offer any data to support your assertion that Mr. Manchin will gain votes by doing what you demand.
There’s also this:
You haven’t yet responded to the substance of this at all.
For your first question Data for Progress on Twitter: “West Virginia voters support Build Back Better by a +43-point margin. https://t.co/IUuwkbVvHD https://t.co/r6CzVEhOD2” / Twitter
For your second point, I don’t share your purism. Important as it is to stop the Trump movement, it doesn’t mean that we can in the meantime ignore climate change, child poverty, criminally high drug prices.etc. In other words, we can’t ignore reality and just whine and stamp our feet when the Trumpers won’t go away.
In any case, it’s a false choice. The surest way to get Trump or someone like him is to fail to deliver on the promises contained in BBB, or even to fight for them.
By the way, have you checked on the falling support among younger voters? It’s looks like there may a whole generation of purists to deal with.
Looking forward to your response on the substance of this post.
You cite dataforprogress.org? Really? That’s pretty weak tea.
Consider what influencewatch.org has to say about dataforprogress.org (https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/data-for-progress/) (emphasis mine):
You offered three items that you claim will cost Mr. Manchin votes in West Virginia: child tax credits, student loan debt relief, and extended Medicare benefits.
The dataforprogress poll asked only about extended Medicare benefits. There is no information about how the respondents were selected. There is no information about how they were polled. The poll was taken in August of 2021. Even if it was accurate last summer, a lot has happened since then.
You may be willing bet Joe Manchin’s political future on a “poll” produced by an organization that specializes in producing” reports and scorecards designed to shift the future of the Democratic Party in a more populist and radical left-wing direction”. I strongly suspect that Mr. Manchin and his staff are much better informed about what West Virginia voters actually want.
Really? You think so? I think that the surest way to return Trumpists to power is to reinforce the misconception — especially among young people — that voting doesn’t matter because the whole system is corrupt and broken.
Trumpists will win if cynics persuade young people and other cynics to stay home.
I absolutely have, and it is that generation that makes me most despairing of America’s future. They are, in fact, so far as I can tell, an entire generation of purists who can’t be bothered to vote because their particular snowflake got his or her butt kicked in the last election.
If young people don’t see the importance of turning out and overcoming the explicit intent of the Trumpists to impose authoritarian white supremacist rule, then the Trumpists will in fact win.
Your commentary falsely and relentlessly blaming Joe Biden for this reinforces that cynicism, apathy, and despair.
That is is why I argue against you so often.
“They are, in fact, so far as I can tell, an entire generation of purists . . . “
Wow, I feel about 40 years younger!
Purism seems to be spreading faster than omicron.
Characterize young people however you like. They typically don’t vote in mid-term elections.
None of you commentary here has suggested even a hint of a path towards a better outcome.
In the meantime, so far as I can tell, you dismiss the most important existential issue on the table — the ongoing insurrection.
“None of you commentary here has suggested even a hint of a path towards a better outcome.”
Okay, I’ll bite. What is your suggestion for getting younger voters to support Democrats in 2022 at something like the level they did in 2020? (Allowing for the inevitable difference in turnout for a mid-term).
So far all you seem to have is labeling them purists and labeling Sen Sanders a loser. Think that will work?
I’ll answer – showing them we can accomplish something, anything, rather than wait until we can accomplish everything.
I join Nate Silver (at fivethirtyeight.com) in paying little attention to them.
The steps to drive turnout in Democrats among groups that vote in mid-terms are much more important. To wit:
I’m confident that these steps will motivate increased passion and turnout among Democratic voters who usually vote in mid-terms. These same steps will motivate some younger voters as well.
Since the steps taken to satisfy the purists — in many cases an impossible task anyway — tend drive away mainstream Democrats, we need to win the midterms without the purists — regardless of their age group.
Bernie Sanders is not on the ballot until 2024. He is irrelevant to the 2022 mid-terms.
“Identify key demographic groups — groups that actually vote in midterms. Identify 3-4 key issues that motivate each group.”
The focus group approach. Hard to get more cynical than that. Shouldn’t the Democratic party have some idea by now of what it stands for and what is good for the country? You sound like a consultant for Facebook. I’m surprised you left algorithms out of your recommendations.
There’s nothing wrong with focus groups for message targeting, which is different from sticking your finger in the air to decide where you stand. Besides, all Tom is recommending is doing for demographics likely to vote what you suggest for less faithful young voters – figure out what motivates them and communicate the right message. I will say that it is frustrating that Dems struggle with the idea that even the greatest achievements don’t sell themselves. Biden’s been successful in areas hardly anyone knows about.
“Cynical” is not a synonym for data-driven.
The most important objective is to preserve representative democracy in America — the authoritarian white supremacist insurrection must be put down.
There is nothing cynical about identifying the most direct, most effective, and lowest risk of attaining that objective.
There is certainly nothing cynical about resisting the foolish temptation to drive away voters that nearly always vote in mid-terms and that place a high value on representative democracy and the rule of law in favor of fickle purists whose most immediate response to anything they don’t like is to pick up the ball and go home.
While I’ve never been worked for Facebook, I’ve been a consultant all my life. Algorithms and heuristics are used nearly universally by entities who actually CARE about reliable outcomes because algorithms and heuristics work far more often then relying on passion, faith, and similar emotions.
Yes — absolutely the “focus group approach”. If Democrats had started doing that about a year ago we wouldn’t be in this mess.
I used this name to make clear Manchin’s blatant conflict of interest. Just in case there were people on this blog who were totally uniformed.
Now that I have your attention, Tom, would you like to respond to the substance of the article I linked to?
No, I will not respond to yet another left-wing hit piece.
Left Wing Hit Piece? From Open Secrets?
The link you posted is from dataforprogress. I posted the summary from influencewatch.org.
I stand by my characterization of the pieces you posted.
I’ll post it again. This thread is so scrambled that I don’t fault you for missing this the first time it was posted.
“I don’t even know who you mean by ‘Senator Epi Pen’”
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/09/manchin-large-campaign-contributions-epipen-scandal/
Holding up the infrastructure bill means no infrastructure, no jobs, and nothing to run on. The American people would be the ones held hostage to political games. You still seem to be under the impression that there was any leverage in that. This is his signature agenda item. It is absolutely ridiculous to suggest he doesn’t care. As you point out he was in the Senate for 35 years so I believe he knows better than either of us what he is doing. I think Republicans are hopeless, not out of loyalty to McConnell per se, but fear of Trump and their base and of giving Biden anything like a win. Plus they are at least as ideologically opposed to BBB as Manchin is. I believe you are living in a fantasy world.
“Call the result “victory” and move on” We can always do that later, Tom. Like after the midterms, or after the 2024 elections. Senator Sanders was emphatic today about Joe Manchin’s lack of guts. Senators who care about their constituents losing child care credits should start thinking of ways to get even.
By the way, does this mean that the SALT cap repeal is also dead? I bet none of the hacks pushing for that are throwing up their hands and giving their donors a lot of double talk about unhittable wild pitches.
Bah. Senator Sanders is a loser. He’s always been a loser. So far as I can tell, Mr. Sanders is emphatic about everything he says. He’s still a loser.
I don’t know if SALT cap repeal is dead or not, and I don’t care. The right way forward right now is to take whatever Mr. Manchin will support, enlist Mr. Manchin to twist Ms. Sinema’s arm (because by all accounts she follows his lead) and take what we can get.
The problem is not Mr. Manchin, Ms. Sinema, or Mr. Biden. The problem is that Democrats have exactly 50 votes in the Senate. Until that problem is solved, there will always somebody at the back of the Democratic pack slowing down those at the front pulling in whatever direction they pull in.
The progressive wing of our party failed to gain a sufficient mandate to enact its agenda — as you seem to concur. That is the problem.
Stopping the insurrection is FAR more important than the child care credits, universal preK, SALT cap repeal, or any other part of BBB.
Pre-clearance by DoJ must be reinstated. The ability of states to overturn legitimate elections must be stopped. Officials who organized, led, and funded the insurrection must be prosecuted, convicted, incarcerated, and fined.
That’s what’s important right now.
If and when progressives attain an actual mandate, then the reservations of Mr. Manchin or Ms. Sinema won’t matter.
Tom’s obsession with the fascists under his bed would be more convincing if he had spent the previous four years fixating on the Russians under his bed. There always seems to be something more compelling for Tom to obsess about than actually improving the lives of Americans.
Extending the Child Care Credit cut the child poverty rate in half. Letting one Senator kill it doubles the child poverty rate. And that is just one the provisions of the bill. Call me a purist, but I think that outweighs even the evident satisfaction that some of the bloggers take here in ridiculing progressives.
A bill that cannot pass the Senate cannot change the child poverty rate at all.
We’ve talked plenty about the Russians and their connections to the former guy. I think we all agree on the merits of the child tax credit, but as this diarist points out it’s not really that one Senator gets a veto, but that the whole other party won’t even pretend to negotiate in good faith.
“Bah. Senator Sanders is a loser. He’s always been a loser. So far as I can tell, Mr. Sanders is emphatic about everything he says. He’s still a loser.”
Trump couldn’t have said it better. Careful, Tom, that you don’t turn into what you most hate.
This post post is so important. Thank you. Biden will not give up. I am sure of that.
“. Biden will not give up. I am sure of that.” Famous last words.
Tonight it sounds like Bob Gardner has given up.
Here’s Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan that Pukes don’t want you to have: | Blue Mass Group
Here’s the debate on this same subject from two months ago. I think I was saying pretty much the same thing then as now. Is there a substantive reason why the people who agreed with me then want to institute a hypocrisy test now?
I agreed with you then, and I still agree with the commentary you offered then.
The progressives in the Democratic Party have failed to work with Joe Manchin on BBB. There is at least some indication in today’s reporting that Ms. Bowman is finally having substantive discussions with Mr. Manchin about reconciling their differences.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Manchin are continuing to work towards a resolution.
Mr. Manchin is working with Senate Democrats this evening to develop mechanisms to reform Senate rules so that the several voting rights bills can pass.
Your commentary in the post you just cited was not nearly so hostile and vicious towards Mr. Biden or Mr. Manchin than your commentary has been on this thread.
When BBB passes the Senate a month or so from now, I expect passionate commentary from you praising Joe Biden’s role in bringing these different factions together. I’m sure you won’t disappoint us.
“, . . . I expect passionate commentary from you praising Joe Biden’s role in bringing these different factions together. . . .”
That depends on the substance of the bill.