“If Republicans can end the filibuster to install right wing judges to overturn Roe v. Wade, Democrats can and must end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade, and make abortion legal and safe.” Senator Bernie Sanders
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Reality-based commentary on politics.
Perhaps someday. Not today.
This is why I don’t believe Bernie Sanders will ever be an effective agent for progress. While you and I agree enthusiastically agree with Mr. Sanders, reality says that this is a LOSING political strategy at the moment.
An overwhelming majority of Americans — including a majority of self-identifying GOP voters — are appalled by the criminality of the insurrection being revealed in the on-going Jan 6 hearings. Those revelations are finally be accompanied by aggressive DoJ investigations and presumably indictments.
We already have a path for securing a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate this November — convert those opinions to pro-Democratic votes this November.
A MUCH thinner majority of Americans support a woman’s right to choose. A significant piece of that already thin majority agree that at least some restrictions should be in place.
This is the time to FOCUS on:
This is NOT a time to “walk and chew gum”.
When we allow the discussion to shift from proven criminal conspiracy to freedom of choice, we exchange an overwhelming political win in November of this year for a likely defeat or at best draw.
We should take the obvious path to a decisive win this November — by hammering on the positions that an overwhelming majority (on the order of more than 90%) of voters support us on.
Sorry Tom but I disagree. I believe we can and SHOULD walk and chew gum at the same time by ending the circular firing squad and concentrating on a message that is clear, consistent and true. One of my heroes, David Plouffe, put it this way: “Congress can override what the Supreme Court did and pass a law to legalize abortion. To do that, we need to elect 2 more Democratic Senators and to hold the House. President Biden will sign a law codifying Roe if that happens.”
I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.
The path you advocate is precisely the battle the GOP wants to have in 2022.
It is a path that in the best case is supported by a small majority and gains a minimal short-term advantage. Even if a law is passed in 2023 to legalize abortion, that law can and will be reversed the next time the GOP gains control.
The path I suggest leads to an overwhelming House and Senate majority in 2023 — well over the 60 vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster.
Instead of passing legislation that is easily reversed, the super-majority that we gain from the path I advocate can pass a constitutional amendment explicitly and positively establishing a right to privacy for every American.
That new amendment ends the GOP war on women with a resounding victory.
I’m advocating a ‘BOTH / AND’ strategy instead of either/or.
I suggest that the media will ignore the insurrection topic in favor of the abortion topic precisely because the first is already a landslide and the second is too-close-to-call.
The media hates blow-outs and loves too-close-to-call.
The result of an attempt to do both is that the media will choose the abortion debate for us, and we will lose as a result.
“Abortion” — in 2022 — is a losing political issue for us.
“Protecting America from seditionists” — in 2022 — is landslide win for us.
Not sure why you are so pessimistic about abortion as a political issue. My own sense plus a lot of punditry I’ve heard suggests Dems may finally have their issue to stem the expected midterm bloodbath.
Where in the world are you going to find a supermajority necessary to amend the Constitution?
By using the “Protect democracy” theme to replace the seditionists with Democrats.
If I had my way every single Republican who voted to challenge any electoral votes on January 6th would be on a one-way trip to political oblivion, but I guess it’s now my turn to be the pessimist. At very least Democratic party organs should be relentlessly pummeling their districts and states with ads reminding voters of this. Of course in the reddest areas those challenges are seen as a plus.
He might have meant at the opening of the next Senate, which I believe is the only time the rules can change without themselves being subject to a filibuster. I believe at least 60% disagree with the Court on the Dobbs case so that seems pretty comfortable. I think we can multitask.
West Virginia voters are not going to agree with us on making abortion “legal and safe” for at least a generation.
West Virginia voters already agree with us that sedition and insurrection is a crime that should be punished.
Mr. Manchin is showing us how we win in November of 2022 and November of 2024.
We should be paying rather more attention to Joe Manchin and rather less to Bernie Sanders.
PUKES have been ‘walking and chewing gum’ for the last 50 years! Why can’t we?
The GOP bases its entire pitch on a set of lies, and funds an entire network to spread those lies. That has been true for at least the four decades since Ronald Reagan invented Voodoo Economics.
Democrats believe in telling the truth. We believe in rational, civilized, and courteous debate with our political opponents and the electorate.
America resoundingly rejects the GOP lies of the insurrection. It strikes me as counterproductive for Democrats to participate in changing the topic away from that to resume a contentious argument that has already been waged for generations.
I suggest we take the immediate win, take the resulting supermajority in the House and Senate, and USE that supermajority to accomplish the changes that America so desperately needs.
Democrats have an opportunity to win back four seats this cycle, which will render West Virginia a non-player. We also need to start winning on values and not on just on calculus. And plus one to Fredrich on the walk & chew gum analogy…we need to stop concentrating on one thing at a time and figure out quickly how to build coalitions that can not only elect Democrats, but strong Democrats and work simultaneously on emboldening our current electeds into taking positive action and holding firm.
In two sequential sentences of the same paragraph, you propose to focus on four seats this cycle (although you do not specify which four) and then claim to want to win on values rather than calculus.
Protecting the rule of law IS wanting to win on values.,
I value protecting the very fabric of our election system above any particular issue.
Coalitions that are quickly built are equally quickly dissolved.
The reason that today’s Democrats are not “taking positive action” and “holding firm” is NOT because they are bad, weak, or fake Democrats. It is instead because we refuse to focus our energy on the things that our electorate pays the most attention to.
I think it’s a grievous unforced error for Democrats to talk about ANYTHING except protecting America from the vicious, corrupt, vile, and criminal thugs who control the GOP and Fox News.
Ron Johnson. Mitch McConnell. Lindsay Graham. Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio. John Kennedy. The list goes on and on.
No amount of messaging, money, or anything else regarding abortion is going to make any difference AT ALL in any of those elections in 2022.
There are eight battleground states in the upcoming 2022 elections:
In addition, The following Republican senators are retiring at the end of 2022:
Like it or not, those eleven states are the ONLY STATES THAT MATTER in the 2022 senate mid-term campaign.
In those eleven states, “Protecting Democracy” already enjoys MUCH STRONGER support among elected voters in those states than abortion rights. Gun control, in most of those states, is a non-starter for Democrats.
I think we need to be MORE, rather than less, effective at focusing on calculus.
Our problem since 2020 has been our messaging is chaotic, random, and directionless. Our knee-jerk preference for the “both/and” choice has been destroying us.
We need focus and discipline. The GOP has already handed us an issue — Protecting Democracy — where:
It seems mind-numbingly obvious to me that this issue should be the center of our campaign. This is not the time to be talking about reproductive rights, LGTBQ, guns, or other red herrings.
This is the time to talk about Protecting America.
Abortion and guns are the subject if two decisions that are Dred Scott levels of awful in the last few days. If Dems don’t have a reason to turn out now, I don’t know when they ever will. The public beyond our base also overwhelmingly agrees with us on both issues.
I agree they are Dred Scott levels of awful.
The point remains, though, that tens of millions of Americans who are NOT Democrats think they’re great.
Beyond our base, the number who agrees with us on the rule of law and protecting our elections greatly exceeds the number who agree with us on guns and abortions
I also remind all of us that it took 11 years and a civil war to reverse the Dred Scott decision.
73 % of Americans support Roe according to the latest Gallup poll.
Correct and the legislation Schumer and other Senate Democrats advanced went much further than Roe and eliminated Hyde and reversed the ban on late term abortions. We should narrow our focus to preserving Roe and leave the more progressive than Roe legislation to the states. That’s the winning hand. Otherwise the GOP and media can both sides it to death. We should give swing voters a choice between bans that begin at conception with no exceptions for rape or incest and that threaten access to privacy and birth control or the Roe status quo. We should not be going to the left of Roe right now and risk that framing. Common sense and moderation should win the day.
Voters are much more ambivalent about abortion in those same polls when you talk about paying for abortions or allowing them past 20 weeks. I do not agree with that majority, but we should recognize where the voters are with us and where they are not. They like safe legal and rare not funding abortion to the point of birth.
Dobbs confirms that we live in an Orwellian Fascist country where the tyranny of the minority is expressed by a majority on the Supreme Court.
I enthusiastically agree.
I join you in struggling to articulate the most effective response.
I think a big problem with that assumption is the anti choice and anti gun safety voting bloc is more unified and cohesive around those issues and distributed in a more electorally advantageous way. So sure polling shows 60-70% of Americans support us on either issue, and guess where the majority of those people live? In already blue states or blue cities subsumed by red states like TX or FL.
I think we need an all hands on deck effort to fight for a broader right to privacy and link it to Jan 6 by fighting to protect our democracy. Majority rule is a bedrock democratic principle going back to the Mayflower Compact and it is on the ballot this fall.
We absolutely need to codify not only Roe but the right to privacy and that right may need an amendment level enshrinement since this court will reject any pro-choice federal legislation. It will not reject the inverse either which is why we should push back against Republicans downplaying the effect Dobbs could have on blue and purple states. So Tom is right that the long game really requires flipping enough Senate seats to kill the filibuster for good and try like hell to keep the House. It also means adopting more moderate positions on abortion and reminding the base that a majority of voters reject late term abortions and taxpayer funded ones.
We need to flip enough seats to pass amendments that have overwhelming popular support.
Three immediate examples are:
This same supermajority is all that is needed to impeach any federal justice include sitting Supreme Court justices. ALL of the Donald Trump appointees should be impeached and removed with one vote (the Senate has been confirming federal judges en masse for decades).
The resulting vacancies should be filled by qualified individuals, including those who have just been removed as appropriate.
The toxins of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump must be removed from federal, state, and local governments.
Unlike most purges in history, the purge I suggest can and should be done without violence — except whatever is needed to enforce the law (including subpoenas, arrests, and search warrants).
Todays’ generic poll proves my point. Last week, Republicans had a +3 advantage. Today, Democrats lead by +6 nationally.
Guns have more rights than women now.
The way I saw it put on the internet yesterday – “Life begins at conception, and ends with a mass shooting.”
This poll does not show changes by state.
The size of the Democratic advantage in New York and Massachusetts is irrelevant.
It is the states I enumerated upthread where changes matter.
We also need to add at least two, and in my opinion, four judges to the USSC for a total of 13 (like the “Original Colonies” for a historical reference) and a 7/6 majority. There are those who worry about Republicans adding another two or four if and when they get the opportunity and making a mockery of the court. To that I say this:
ERA didn’t get the requisite number of states in time. Adding it is fine, I guess, but I remain unconvinced it covers anything the 14th doesn’t already.
A privacy amendment absolutely will not settle the abortion question once and for all. There will always be those who argue that a fetus is human life on exactly equal footing as those of us who are born and protecting that life trumps a woman’s medical choices.
Your proposal to reword the second amendment seems to be politically catastrophic overreach.
Impeachments need to be case by case and simply being nominated by Trump is not an impeachable offense.
The time limit imposed was arbitrary and is not specified by the constitution. The requisite number of states have now approved it.
I invite you to cite legal opinion explaining why mass impeachments are any different from mass confirmations.
After Donald Trump is shown to have knowingly been working on behalf of Vladimir Putin, I suggest that “simply being nominated by Trump” most certainly IS an impeachable offense.
Are we heading for a reactionary theocracy?
President Biden supports a filibuster exception to codify Roe.
“Arrogant, ignorant, baseless.” Hillary Clinton on Dobbs at the Aspen Ideas Festival.