The economy is on the ballot. It only works now for the wealthiest, top 10%. Inflation is the top concern for 33% of voters. Gas prices have fallen 70 cents in the last 4 weeks and follows with 15%.
Only 14% of Trump voters want him to run in ’24 so whether he announces before the midterms will be a factor, too. Dems pray that he does and if he does; the Turtle, Mitch McConnell, will be put on suicide watch.
Only 1/4 of Americans know that Biden’s infrastructure bill was signed into law. That is a big messaging challenge for Dems.
So, economy is always # 1 issue BUT in this cycle INTENSITY is a close second. Abortion, student loans and climate change could motivate turnout with younger progressive voters. 2/3 of voters say they’re more likely to vote in the midterms because of Dobbs. For 18-29 year-olds, abortion / economy is their top issue.
Respected presidential historian Alan Lichtman predicts Democrats will defy history by picking up Senate seats and holding the House because of GOP extremism and bad candidates. I agree! I think the PUKES are going to snatch DEFEAT from the jaws of victory.
Dems are the party of forward-looking progress ; PUKES backward regress.
I think Lichtman is awfully optimistic for Dems on the House side given gerrymandering, but my own current Senate prediction is we hold what we have plus pick up PA and WI (and even OH and NC if we have a really good night).
Count me as one Dem who is NOT hoping Trump announces another run before (or after) the midterms. I would like nothing better than for him to shut up and go away.
The few remaining sane Republicans would ‘like nothing better than for the ‘Marmalade Monster’ to shut up and go away’ too, just like you.
But I say: screw these fascist, domestic terrorist, traitor bastards. Hit ’em where it hurts and don’t stop hitting them until these scum crawl back under the rocks from where they came. Damn them all to hell!
VOTE BLUE: competent leadership in difficult times.
Autocrats are on the March: from Moscow to Mar-A-Lago!
OH and PA are looking very good and candidate recruitment has been terrible for the GOP. MO is less in reach now that the loathsome Eric Greitens has lost, but Busch can self finance and is perfectly positioned to attract St Louis and KC suburbanites terrified about Roe. I wouldn’t give her any money, he I wouldn’t count her out either. I’ve even seen polls showing Demmings within the MoE with Rubio. I am literally betting on a D Senate in two Predictit markets so I am confident it can hold.
I am more worried about Cortez Masto and Hassan tbh, than Warnock or Kelly. They sent to be running anemic campaigns but they are also up against one time statewide losers who are looking to become two timers. Both Republican nominees are too conservative for their purple states, especially on choice.
I think Hassan dodged a bullet when Chris Sununu declined to run. The NH primary is next month so we don’t know her opponent yet.
I find it amazing that Herschel Walker ended up as the Republican Senate candidate in GA. Surely the bench is deep enough the party could have found someone actually qualified to be a Senator!