So long as Donald Trump remains the front runner for the 2024 Republican nomination, President Biden is the only Democrat capable of beating him. This is the silver lining from an otherwise grim assessment of Biden’s re-election and renomination chances from the New York Times. Oddly they have a symbiotic relationship since opposing Trump remains the best way to unify the Democrats around Biden.
Otherwise it’s becoming painfully evident that Biden lacks the stamina and political chops to take on a younger Republican nominee like Ron DeSantis. This is why the two questions for Democrats after this midterm will be if anyone besides Biden can take on Trump and if Biden can take on anyone else beside Trump.
Please share widely!
It’s one thing to be realistic about 2022, but I really wish we would stop writing anyone’s 2024 political obituaries! It’s been said that even a week is a long time in politics, and I believe there are about 120 weeks until that election. Opposition wins in midterms often serve to motivate for the next presidential election and a foil for the incumbent in the meantime. Reagan, Clinton, and Obama all bounced back.
Admittedly was neither around nor paying real attention to the first two, but I do not remember this kind of early polling mudslide followed by a groundswell for someone else at this stage in their terms. Even after his 2010 midterm disaster. Obama and Clinton also did not have the added liability of age.
I do know there were questions about Reagan’s age after his first debate performance in 84’ which led to his famous quip about Walter Mondale’s youth and inexperience. It must be also be said that Reagan was younger than President Biden and already suffering from Alzheimer’s at the end of his second term. We are looking at an 82 year old running for re-election and serving until he was 86, by contrast Reagan was almost a decade younger when he ran for re-election.
You do seem to have a soft ageism streak. I’m not prepared to diagnose, and certainly not predict, Biden either politically, physically, or mentally circa 2024. I believe doctors have said that Reagan was emphatically NOT yet actually suffering from Alzheimer’s while still in office.
It’s not ageism if most other advanced democracies have mandatory retirement ages for justices and legislators. Biden is about to turn 80 on November and is already the oldest president in history. He will be ten years older at the end of his term than Reagan who’s aides in fact debated whether to invoke the 25th amendment and who most objective biographers concede had symptoms in his presidency. Biden has already survived two brain injuries. He also implied he would be a one term president and a bridge to a new generation of leaders. A transitional figure to use his words. I’m grateful he saved us from Donald Trump, I have serious concerns about whether he can save us from a post-Trump Republican Party.
That is patently incorrect.
Germany had explicitly sexist laws (and culture) restricting access to women for years after the US did away with them — that’s a major reason why my wife (a human geneticist) is now a US citizen. Those laws were sexist, and their existence confirmed the criticism that German culture of that time was formally sexist.
Several states in the US still have miscegenation laws still on the books. Do those laws mean that opposing racially mixed marriage is not racist?
I have already agreed with you that any official who is impaired should be replaced. I am cautiously optimistic that most of the Democratic leadership shares that view.
Exactly one Democratic president has chosen not to run for re-election in my lifetime — LBJ in 1968. That was an unmitigated DISASTER for Democrats, for America, and for the world.
Too many Democrats blamed Jimmy Carter for the woes that beset America in 1980. Too many Americans were too eager to dismiss him because he told us the truth about energy, gasoline, and what we now call “climate change”.
Too many Americans and too many Democrats blamed Jimmy Carter for not “solving” the Iranian hostage situation.
Ted Kennedy did grievous harm to Democrats, America, and the world with his failed 1980 primary challenge to Jimmy Carter.
So far as I know, Democrats have nobody with the stature of Ted Kennedy in 1979 to run against Joe Biden in 2024. If there ever was an “age of Camelot”, it is not now.
If Mr. Biden is truly impaired, then Democratic leaders should look to replace him on the 2024 ticket. For that matter, a peaceful transition of power under the 25th Amendment might well be an optimistic contrast-and-compare with the seditionist chaos of Mr. Trump. Sadly, Kamala Harris is less likely to prevail against the nominee of a post-Trump GOP than Joe Biden.
I can certainly see a Biden-Booker ticket followed by a peaceful transfer of power under the 25th Amendment. I think an open Democratic primary in 2024 is good for the GOP and bad for Democrats.
In the absence of more convincing evidence that Mr. Biden actually IS impaired, then repetition of the “he’s too old” meme is, in fact, ageist.
Read the Michelle Goldberg article I linked to and look at the evidence. You admitted elsewhere you were a little disappointed in his leadership and that he’s lost a spring in his step along the way compared to peers like Bill and Hillary. I just do not see the urgency there to meet this incredible challenge. Whether that’s age or a lack of will is an open question, but the urgency is not there.
It’s been there for Ukraine and other foreign policy challenges, but they were caught flat footed by the collapse of the Afghan government and flat footed by the court overturning Roe. In both cases, especially the latter, the writing was literally on the wall. They had a two month head start thanks to the leaked memo and nearly nine months to plan for the Afghan withdrawal and they still didn’t have a plan either time.
I voted for him, I’m glad he won the nomination and not Bernie or Warren whom I supported with my vote and money. I will vote for him again against Trump, or any Republican, and probably against a primary challenger for the reasons you cited. I just worry the party does not have real visible leadership at the moment capable of keeping a majority to defend our democracy.
I’m about to offer a truly bizarre speculation — but please try it on.
What if the Democrats nominate Joe Manchin in 2024?
What if the Democrats make it clear in 2022 that Mr. Manchin is the heir apparent — such by somehow making him the Vice President.
For example, suppose Kamala Harris were to step down and Joe Manchin be nominated to replace her? I believe it takes a majority vote of both the House and Senate for that to be effective — I think that’s how Gerald Ford ended up as Vice President after Spiro Agnew’s resignation in disgrace.
It seems to me that Joe Manchin has a clearer picture of what aspects of the Democratic agenda can actually be sold beyond the Democratic base than any other elected Democrat that I can think of.
For the record, Joe Manchin is 74.
I agree that Democrats must somehow act far more decisively than we have so far.
We’d lose his Senate seat although I completely agree the party could learn from him and needs more candidates like him to become a 50 state party.
At very least Dems should have asked him early on how far he was willing to go and vote on that. Instead we wasted lots of time insisting on going big all at once resulting in less to show for it. Dems need to do more taking what we can get and bragging about it and less time wringing our hands and whining about what we couldn’t get done.
I can’t name one individual, but my hunch is there is a young governor or member of congress who can take on Trump and win.
I don’t think so.
My wish is that after the 2022 election results are in, where Democrats hold the senate but lose the house, Biden announces he will not run in 2024 after a behind closed door agreement with the Democrats in the Senate to add four judges to the USSC.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/opinion/joe-biden-too-old.amp.html
I’m far more interested in identifying a winning nominee in 2024 than repeating tiresome complaints that Mr. Biden is “too old”.
The most immediate and obvious effect of repeating the “too old” meme is to drive away potential Democratic voters in both 2022 and 2024.
I’m more interested in not seeing a neo-fascist political party that is inhabiting the shell of the former Republican Party win this fall.
Democrats are obsessed with the executive branch, while Republicans have quietly taken over local and state offices all over this country.
It’s about 2022, not 2024.
I agree about that in the short term, I am also saying there is not a ton of time after 22’ to have a full primary field. It would be better for Biden, if he chooses not to run, to have his succession plan in place so we avoid that. It would also be nice if Biden were campaigning for Democrats in 2022 with the kind of urgency the moment demands. His lethargic response to Dobbs, Highland Park, and inflation have not helped the party or rallied the faithful. At the end of the day a president is on the ballot during a midterm as well and only he can ward off the slump or recover from it.
These are not mutually exclusive propositions. Biden’s abysmal polling numbers are dragging down House Democrats and his lethargic response to events on the ground have started sowing seeds of doubt in the party faithful. Where is the muscular response to Dobbs? To Highland Park? Anytime the president is asked to act, even by the parent of a slain child, he demurs to a Congress he knows is inflatable of governing. Late to eliminating the filibuster, still not willing to expand the court, and unwilling to use full executive powers to make changes Congress will not. At least Trump fought for his side, Biden is taking a nap.
I say this as someone who rejects the purity police of the far left by the way. I think Biden is ideologically where he needs to be, but his political instincts are not as sharp as they need to be to but back and recover in the fall.
But you do seem to be giving the purity police cover. Why is that a Republican President can get away with smashing every norm up to and including instigating a palace coup with his followers circling the wagons while a Democratic President can’t count on his partisans having his back at the first indication of a policy disappointment or sinking poll numbers. Republicans stick together and win; Democrats scatter at the slightest provocation and lose!
I question whether his head and his heart is in this fight and whether he has our backs. Unlike the GOP we are reality based and not a personality cult where we cannot defy our leaders. Healthy parties like the British conservatives know when to reset and restart with new blood.
If any US political party needs to follow the example of British conservatives, it is the GOP.
“New blood” is not the issue.
I’m good with defying our leaders. That’s not the issue here.
Unlike the GOP, we ARE reality-based. In a reality-based world, attacking today’s Democratic administration is suicidal.
If and when Mr. Biden and the Democratic leadership team identifies a successor, then I’m enthusiastically signed up to support that successor.
I think that attacking a sitting Democratic president in the summer of mid-term campaigning is anything but “realistic”.
I’m certainly not suggesting Dems should go to the same extreme as Republicans, but there’s nothing wrong with a bit of loyalty too. We knew all along that Biden was much more steady-as-she-goes rather than storm-the-barricades.
It has less to do with his moderate ideology and more to do with his lack of fire. I saw a fiery Biden in the 2012 debate with Paul Ryan and throughout his 2015 flirtation with a presidential run (I would have likely supported him over either Bernie or Hillary) and he managed to maintain a similar demeanor during the 2020 general election and after his South Carolina win.
So is the stress of the job on its oldest occupant taking a toll? Why spend every weekend in Delaware? Why is he not hitting the trail and connecting with ordinary voters in town halls and rallies across the country? Why does he not take enough press conference or interviews? The president is not a bad guy nor is he doing a bad job, but he just feels absent at times and not really a strong presence in either the country or the party he is supposed to be leading.
In other words, exactly what he told us. My comment above WAS about demeanor rather than ideology. He point blank said during the campaign that we would not see him or have to think about him every day. His style is to operate in the background and I for one am not the least bit surprised. I think he suffers from what has become our cultural expectation that the President can just DO SOMETHING and make it all better, which is not realistic.
There is no “muscular response” to Dobbs or Highland Park.
None of things you mention —
Are possible, legal, or effective.
That’s like saying that “At least Mussolini made the trains run on time”.
Donald Trump did all in his power to destroy the very fabric of America. Each and every one of his actions was calculated to inflict as much damage as possible on EVERY institution of government.
We are just beginning to even recognize — never mind repair — the damage two years after his departure.
The ONLY avenue legally available is to:
There IS NO effective response about gun control or Dobbs — that is PRECISELY why the Seditionists arranged for those decisions to happen now.
The Seditionists desperately want to pivot the 2022 campaign narrative to the safe and comfortable (for them) ground of gun control and abortion. They are happy to talk about Joe Biden’s age.
They desperately want to change the subject away from the overwhelming and compelling evidence of the massive GOP conspiracy to destroy democracy in America.
I think your three asks are even less
likely than mine, although I’m becoming more hopeful that the Jan 6 Committee will actually produce indictments down the road. Hopefully Garland has the stones and I do know Biden is rightly frustrated by the pace of his AG.
Look I am not saying it’s time to switch out Biden, I just found the polling today be curious. It’s mostly
older voters concerned about is she and younger voters disappointed that he hasn’t done more. It’s among Democrats so this is not a right wing conspiracy, only 40% are eager to see him renominated and that’s a huge red flag going into a mid term. Trump is similarly in the toilet on his side more and more. So while my money is still on a Biden-Trump rematch (and Biden would still have an edge there), I think there is a greater chance that he stays out of 2024 than before, one we ought to acknowledge and prepare for.
It is voters over the age of 65 who overwhelmingly cited Bidens age in this poll. Voters under 35 are more likely to cite his unwillingness to take more extreme progressive positions. I happen to agree with the older voters here. The problem is not that he is not left wing enough, but that he is not effectively or energetically using his powers and the bully pulpit to make his center left case. The public is with us on guns, abortion, and Jan 6 and yet I am unsure the President is willing to wage these fights to the extent he needs to to stem the bleeding. Blaming Putin for high gas prices and inflation is clearly not working either, so time to get aggressive at tackling these problems. It seems instead his midterm strategy is let the Republicans continue to be awful and hope the country re-elects us instead.
The current situation is well beyond any “bully pulpit”.. There is no “muscular response” that Joe Biden or anyone else can give that doesn’t itself transcend the rule of law.
This is not a time for “fighting”.
For example, there is NOTHING Joe Biden or the Democrats can do about high gas prices. Gas prices are high because:
The same is true for inflation.
I don’t know what the answer is. I simply cannot avoid the observation that those demanding a “muscular response” are being childish and unrealistic.
Our political system is BROKEN. It has been destroyed by Vladimir Putin, the GOP, and Fox News. Donald Trump is a puppet, a stooge, and a symptom. Yes he needs to be prosecuted, convicted, and jailed.
Convicting and jailing Donald Trump does nothing about the lies and sedition of Ron Johnson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, et al.
i agree that Joe Biden is apparently impaired. I truly do not know what to do about it. Filling the web with quotes about his incompetence and impairments hurts far more than it helps.
I hope that we Democrats somehow find somebody — Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke — SOMEBODY — who we can rally around and positively support.
Meanwhile, Mr. Biden is the only president we have. Kamala Harris is worse against pretty much ANY GOP ticket.
Even though the Senate confirms Justices adding seats requires a law approved by the House as well, which I’m sure a Republican House would never do for Biden.
He’s 6’3″ and from California….and my guess is he’s running for the White House in 2024…and I have no idea what Kimberly Ann Guilfoyle will say about it.