First of all, it's pretty clear they have to pivot to more popular/populist measures. The bank tax is a great way to start -- let the Republicans spin it and vote against it. Either way it isn't good for them, from either a populist or … [Read more...]
Liveblogging the Returns
End of election note by Hoyapaul: As FrankSkeffington notes in the comments, turnout in most of the Dem cities killed us. The liberal base cities (Cambridge, Newton, etc.) over-performed for Martha (both in turnout and percentage), but … [Read more...]
Town-By-Town Bellwethers and What to Watch For on Tuesday
I took the votes Kerry and Obama received in each city and town, and compared it to the overall margin of victory statewide to get the PVI. (The numbers came from the Globe's cool 2008 and 2004 town-by-town breakdown.) Thus, while the town … [Read more...]
Sen. Dodd to Retire
Big news out of our friendly blue state to the south: Senator Dodd is going to announce today that he's not running for re-election. Talk about a fall from grace -- Dodd went from one of the most popular and safe Dems to the one probably … [Read more...]
A Remarkable Statistic From Obama’s Victory
This chart shows how well each candidate did in the '04 and '08 election in terms of raw percentages, and the margin of victory within each group. The "Margin Shift" category indicates the vote shift from 2004 to 2008 (e.g. a 21-point … [Read more...]
A Theory on Where the Primary Race Goes From Here
First off, a disclosure: I'm leaning Obama (I vote in RI now, so I haven't voted yet), but like both candidates. My guess is that Clinton closes the fundraising gap somewhat, but that is not crucial to my scenario. What is crucial (and, I … [Read more...]
Clinton, Obama, and Electability — Who is Strongest?
Obama Favorables (1) Obama certainly seems to have more appeal to independents, which of course is key in the swing states. In theory, he would match up very well with a GOP base-pleaser nominee like Huckabee (or Romney?). He could even put … [Read more...]
Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama?
Clinton's comeback in NH was quite a surprise, just as Obama's big win in Iowa was pretty surprising. It's early in the campaign, but it's looking very interesting going forward. You have SC, where Obama has built up a good-sized lead … [Read more...]
Gay Marriage Votes In The Next Session
Note: I posted this as a comment in the massive liveblogging thread, but right after posting realized that it might be better to have a separate diary on this because of the size of that thread. -- Hoyapaul OK, so now that this is going to … [Read more...]
A Closer Look At The Election Day Numbers
It appears, looking at the numbers, that Patrick simply dominated in Western Mass., especially compared to Kerry's performance there in '04. Tiny towns in Franklin and Berkshire Counties such as Heath, Colrain, and Alford, as well as … [Read more...]