It looks right now like the campaign may be shaping up around the management of the economic downturn. Baker’s calling Patrick’s management of the economic collapse a “calamity.” Baker, Mihos and Cahill are all calling for cuts in state spending, while Cahill wants to use slots to fund the pension system.
I think this is good news for Patrick. We’re not California, with its IOUs, furloughs and massive cuts in state services. We’re not New York, with its banana republic legislative politics paralyzing the budget process. We’re not Hawaii, Idaho, North Carolina, Colorado, Wisconsin, Maryland, New Jersey or other states, who are furloughing state employees. It isn’t easy to manage such a catastrophic fall-off in state revenues, but Patrick has done a good job. “Calamity” really gives Patrick an opening to talk about something that would otherwise be hard to make work: that things aren’t as bad as they could have been without capable management of the downturn. “Calamity” can be redefined as Mihos’ call to lay off 10% of the state workforce and adopt a California-style property tax law that prohibits upward reassessments of property once purchased (see IOUs above). Or perhaps “calamity” could be redefined as Cahill’s oversight of the pension system, which spent last year in the bottom quarter for performance of state pension funds.
Of course the sales tax increase will be an early target for the challengers. My guess is that it isn’t going to be the big deal that Mihos would like it to be. Unlike an income tax hike, where taxpayers see a big lump annually, the sales tax increase is a salami tax-a thin slice adding up to a whole sandwich over time. Once again, Patrick can point to the realities, including the reality that lots of states (see chart here ) have effective sales tax rates that are higher than ours. Sales tax increases wouldn’t have been my first choice for revenue, but I don’t think Mihos’ web cam is going to help him much over the long term.
Patrick can also use the competitors to his advantage to discuss the balance of service cuts and revenue increases that has been his approach to managing the downturn. Here he has some good ammunition for Baker, who as CEO of HPHC had no problem raising insurance premiums along with his restructuring of costs to turn the company around.
Patrick also has a leg up on reform issues. Unlike the Republican governors, he actually did get transportation and ethics reform. Not perfect, but lots more than his predecessors were able to deliver. Whoever the GOP nominee is will have the problem of getting anything at all through the legislature (as Romney found out). Oddly, I think the zoo issue will be good symbolism for Patrick, even as the Marian Walsh incident will be ammunition for his opponents.
So call me contrarian, but I think the 2010 race is still advantage Patrick. Let’s see what he can deliver.
cayres1 says
Tonight on Basic Black, WGBH’s series on the African American experience, we will be discussing whether Patrick’s tenure has been a missed opportunity for the Commonwealth. We will also be discussing the latest developments in the Henry Louis Gates controversy and the state of diversity in Massachusetts. You can watch and comment live at http://www.wgbh.org/basicblacklive at 7:30 p.m. (or the old-fashioned way on ‘GBH 2).
bluefolkie says
Another data point, courtesy of the Great Orange Satan. Apparently Arizona is so desperate to close a nearly $9 billion budget gap that the legislators are contemplating selling a bunch of government-owned buildings, then renting them back over time (One commenter described it as Payday loans for the state’s government). Here’s the link to the original news story.
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p>As far as missed opportunities, I think Patrick’s challenge is how to turn “It’s not as bad here as it is in lots of other places” into a positive story about the things he has accomplished.
suffolk-democrat says
I think that as far as the campaign goes John Walsh and Patrick’s people are doing an excellent job defining Baker and connecting him to the Big Dig through this lovely blog and other outlets (http://www.bigdigbaker.com/).
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p>With 63% of respondents saying they don’t know or don’t have an opinion of Charlie Baker(http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/07/26/globe_poll_shows_patricks_approval_rating_falling/?page=1) this is crucial.
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p>If Patrick and his people keep this up his chances of re-election will improve.