Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

PREDICTION TIME: January 19th Senate race

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Coakley: 55

Brown: 40

Kennedy: 4

Turnout: 620,000

The morning of the election I will once again put together a composite of all the predictions to see how close the BMG collective wisdom is to the final numbers.

I wish I could offer a prize to the closest prognosticator, but I have no idea how the logistics of delivery would work. And I’m poor.

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  3. It’s never too early to venture a prediction, and in fact I did 9 days ago, complete with a BMG or MassGOP donation on the line:

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    p>Coakley: 58%
    Brown: 40%
    Kennedy 2%

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    p>Turnout: 885,000 (~21% of registered voters)

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    p>Now, would I make the same prediction now, having seen some polling? Probably not (I’d say closer to 55-43-2). But I’m a man of my word, so I’ll submit the above prediction. Also, we’ll find out the PPP’s and Rasmussen turnout models were too restrictive for the hard-to-predict special election (that’s my guess).

  4. I think Brown passes her in the polls this weekend.  Martha doesn’t concede until Tuesday.

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    p>Brown 51
    Coakley 45
    Kennedy 4

  6. Bay Staters can vent to the pollsters, but I don’t see them going through with the threats.  Independents say one thing to voters, but won’t be punching the card/connecting the arrow/marking the x/voting euphemism for a Republican.  It’s a blue-state Bradley effect here in Massachusetts, which comes home while Kennedy implodes…

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    p>Coakley 51
    Brown 47
    Kennedy 2

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    p>Turnout: 785,000

  7. Ted Kennedy, a man with 100% name recognition and extremly popular with the majority of the electorate. He was a senator for 30 years when Mitt romney ran against him. Kennedy had DIE HARD SUPPORTERS…and he won by only 17%.

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    p>Coakley, doesn’t have that type of name recognition that equals Teddy and not nearly as popular for obvious reasons, nor does she have DIE HARD SUPPORTERS like KENNEDY SUPPORTERS and finally she doesn’t have a proven track record.  She will not win by 17% like Kennedy, she will win by alot less…in fact she will win by 7-8%, that is my prediction.

    • I posted this at BMG last Sunday:
      “No one in their right mind or with any political experience at all would have predicted a 20% win for her in the Primary and certainly a double digit win in the final against a Republican is not expected. Even Ted Kennedy could only best Romney by 17% and he had been a (male) US Senator for decades with 100% name recognition. If Coakley, the first woman to get this far, can defeat her centerfold opponent by even half of Kennedy’s spread, it will be a great win!”

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      p>But we need to factor in several million dollars of negative ads and distorted push polling that may cut her down even lower….so my prediction is:
      …AG Coakley 52%  Pseudo-patriot Brown 47.5% Kennedy 2.5%

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      p>Go, Martha! It’s time.

      • (Must have been thinking about those extra votes the GOP claims we get in the first 2 rows of every cemetery)

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        p>Sorry about that…MC 52%  SB 46%  JK 2%

  8. Coakley: 51%
    Brown: 44%
    Kennedy: 5% He’s not going to implode like independents often do because enough people will think he’s related to Ted.

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    p>Turnout: 660,000

  9. Here we Go:
    Coakley 48.5%
    Brown   48.5%
    Joe K    3%
    Bonus round Recount….
    …..Coakley Wins.    Lawyers win!

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    p>health care vote delayed.

    • With Big Bill coming in, Martha campaigning, and a slew of negative ads, I expect an incredibly depressed turnout which will benefit Brown, but the momentum has swung to his side too late but this will be incredibly close to call and will send shivers up the national Democrats spines. David called me nuts when I said Coakley will win by less than 5% but I called, before anyone else (excluding Brown supporters) that this would become a nail biter.

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      p>My numbers:

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      p>Coakley: 49%
      Brown: 46%
      Kennedy: 5%

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      p>The Kennedy number will be higher than expected because he will get old people pulling for him and confusing him with Joe, as well as people registering a protest vote at how horrible the two party candidates are, a vote I’d support, except for the fact that Kennedy is also quite horrible in his own way.  

      • …that the factors listed in your first sentence as evidence of depressed turnout expectations?  I would hope and assume that President Clinton coming to town will energize voters and increase turnout on our side.

        • I think the negative ads will depress turnout but at the expense of Brown, and Clinton and Martha will likely increase turnout on their side, in both cases by small margins, but enough for Martha to eek a win. A 3% win in MA shows real problems with the Democratic agenda though. Or at least thats how it will be spun.  

  10. Why… ’cause #$!@  Scott Brown.  That’s why.

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    p>Oh, and there’s this:

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    p>Previous (contested) statewide races (per wikipedia)

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    p>2000 Pres: Al Gore 59.9% Geo Bush 32.5%

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    p>2002 Gov:  Mitt Romney 49.7%  Shannon O’Brien 44.94%

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    p>2004 Pres: John Kerry 61.9%    Geo Bush 36.8%

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    p>2006 Gov:  Deval Patrick 55.64%   Whats-er-name 35.33%

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    p>2008 Pres: Barack Obama 61.8%  John McCain 35.9%

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    p>Notice a pattern here? Extrapolating to a generic ballot the Dems nearly always get 60% and the Repubs nearly always get 35%.

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    p>So if the real George Bush can’t get more than 37%, and the has-been, second-rate version of George Bush that is John McCain can’t get 36%, how in the hell is a third rate version of a second rate George Bush gonna get even 32%???

    <

    p>No Republican has cracked 50% statewide since Cellucci in 1998… and he was the incumbent during the height of the Clinton boom.  Romney almost did it, but he had to lie about what little he does believe in to get even that.

    • Here’s my foolhardy prediction for the U.S. Senate race:

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      p>Coakley 54%
      Brown   44%
      Kennedy  2%

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      p>In addition, I predict that Scott Brown tries to spin his electoral loss as a “victory for the hard-working, taxpaying citizens of the Commonwealth” as he prepares to move his family to the consolidated and politically competitive Massachusetts Congressional district likely to be created because of state legislature reapportionment and the loss of one Congressional seat in the House of Representatives.

      • Brown will declare victory no matter what happens on Tuesday.  The speech is probably already written.

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        p>”Today the citizens of Massachusetts delivered a message.  They will no longer be taken for granted by Washington, DC.  They will no longer sit idly as their taxes are raised, spending is raised, and terrorists are given protection under the law.  My fellow citizens, we sent a message to the powers that be that the old ways no longer work, blah blah blah”

  11. Coakley  48.5%
    Brown    49%
    Kennedy   2.5%

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    p>Next prediction… Kirk fights leaving the seat and Brown takes it to court. More drama for country already torn by the right and the left.

  13. ..not good.
    not like what i have heard from my former union bros…
    Blue collar type friends not digging Prez visit….
    Lots of women not taking to Martha from what I’m hearing.
    …
    …
    Brown wins 53- 46     kennedy under 2% turnout 27%
    Cap takes him out in 2

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