Today’s big blow to Republicans’ 2012 White House dreams was a crusher.
The announcement Sunday by Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana that he would not run for the Republican presidential nomination ended one major chapter of uncertainty in the race but ignited new debate over whether the current field contains a candidate capable of beating President Obama next year. Saying that his family did not want to go through a campaign, Mr. Daniels became the third high-profile Republican in eight days to choose not to compete for the chance to challenge Mr. Obama.
So Daniels, one of the few remaining adults with any stature in the Republican party, is out. And the increasingly hilarious Tim Pawlenty, who seems to have hired the producers of Independence Day to make his campaign videos, is oh so in. It’s actually difficult not to giggle as the music swells toward the end.
Really, it’s like he’s begging Jon Stewart and the rest of the late-night gang to skewer him. Anyway, this line requires some comment:
I could promise that we can eliminate a $14 trillion debt, create jobs for 10 million people, restructure Social Security and health care, all without making any tough decisions. Or, I could try something different. I could just tell you the truth…. We need a president who understands that our problems are deep, and who has the courage to face them. President Obama doesn’t. I do.
Yeah, that bit about not making tough decisions … gosh, that sounds so familiar … now what does that remind me of? Oh right! Minnesota, circa February 2010, as a certain former governor prepared to give his final state-of-the-state address (emphasis mine):
Pawlenty will step into the Minnesota House of Representatives chamber at a deeply uncertain time for the state. A governor who prides himself on being a shrewd fiscal steward faces a $1.2 billion shortfall, even after draining state reserves, borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars from other state funds and deploying more one-time fixes than any state except Alaska.
Now Moody’s Investors Service, one of the nation’s premier credit-rating agencies, has a message for the governor and the state: What you’ve been doing won’t work much longer. Stop putting off the hard choices or trouble will ensue.
So, yeah, I guess Tim Pawlenty really does know all about governing without making tough decisions. Because that’s exactly what he did in Minnesota, and it didn’t work. And now he wants to try that same strategy for the entire country? I’m not buying, and I frankly don’t think very many other people are either.
Primary: Romney by default. General: Obama in a walk. You heard it here first.
Daniels was one of the best potential candidates for the Republicans, and with him out Romney’s path just got a lot clearer. Pawlenty is still considered part of the group of “serious Republican contenders,” but I’m not entirely sure why. He has zero charisma and was a failure as a governor.
Along with Romney, Huntsman is really the only other legitimate Republican candidate, and there’s no chance he’ll get the nomination after serving under Obama. Romney has his own obvious problems with RomneyCare, but I think when it becomes clear that he’s the only one that can legitimately challenge Obama that the conservatives will hold their nose and vote for him. Romney has the money, the “presidential” looks, and the favorable early primary schedule on his side (IA without Daniels or Huckabee, NH, and NV).
I really for the life of me can’t picture someone as widely detested as Mr. Romney winning his party’s nomination. The country club crowd has turned against him regarding Romneycare (the WSJ and George Will have been skewering him), the tea party crowd isn’t buying it, and the social conservatives were never thrilled about him. The only people he is attracting are neocon foreign policy advisers and it seems likely they might bail to Hunstman. Hunstman has a solid team and if they can manipulate the conservative intelligentsia to not focus on his shortcomings he could be really competitive. He is already making waves in NH, I just can’t see him or Romney doing well in the South. That said though I agree with David’s overall point, I really don’t see Romney winning but I can’t see an anti-Romney emerging thus far either. As for he big GE he will likely win like Clinton in 1996, but if we have an energized GOTV effort we can retake the House and expand the Senate majority, unlike 96 when apathetic voters re-elected Clinton and the Gingrich Congress. Oh speaking of Newt I’d say out by August when his ca$h dries up.
It is indeed odd to see Romney as the nominee given how little he is liked among many pockets of the Republican coalition. Nevertheless, McCain as the nominee in the summer before the primary season last cycle also seemed like an impossibility (remember the conservative dissatisfaction with him and the field generally, his money problems, etc.?). McCain nevertheless won by default, which looks like what will happen with Romney.
Remember that Romney does not need to be particularly popular among the base to get the nomination. He needs nowhere near 50% support — rather, just enough support to keep racking up a consistent 25%-30% of delegates in state after state. Romney is the only candidate with significant support everywhere — even in the South he has OK support that he can build on with his cash (plus, other than Ron Paul, there is no other Southerner in the race).
The math involved in the candidate selection system is why Romney as nominee makes sense — even if he’s not very popular among the conservative intelligentsia or grassroots Tea-Party types. That more of the Republican primaries will operate on a proportional rather than winner-take-all basis also gives Romney an advantage. Indeed, if he wins Iowa, I think it will be over quickly — because he’ll win NH easily as well as NV (where Mormons make up a large percentage of the GOP electorate) and build significant momentum.
Just as they did with McCain last time, the conservatives will eventually fall in line.
There are no credible national security candidates on the other side (except maybe Hunstman who is wedding to Obama’s anyway) and presuming we have troop drawdowns in Iraq and AfPak, and some semblance of victory in Libya, the OBL scalp should be enough to give the Dems the advantage on national security. A combination of Dems favoring smart policy over loud and tough policy, and the Republicans losing all credibility on that issue. This could be a sea change for years to come. The ghosts of McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis are finally exorcised
I’d be wondering why the good governor couldn’t pull Aladdin’s Lamp out of his sportcoat sooner, and make some of those tom-terrific promises come true for my state!
Where will 10 million jobs materialize…from business tax cuts? How will debt be reduced by $14B – will he resort to selling off public land?
With former Gov. Palin at the head of the pack with a tell-all book looming, seems the right will be having another banner week already.
As far as making the tough choices, one would think politicians know that making unpopular decisions means you had better be ready to stand in front of the fan.
I wish Huntsman had a better chance. I think he’d fare the best in the general election, but I don’t think he has a chance in the primary system. Which is too bad. He seems the most reasonable of the bunch, and would give Obama a run for his money.
Which is not to say I want to see President Huntsman. I don’t. I just think it’s a damn shame *any* time a politician wins by default, and doesn’t have to defend his actions or policies. I want to see Obama have to actually *run* again. “In a walk” just doesn’t seem right.
I’d like the crop of Republican candidates to answer this question:
“What have you done, since 2008, to help President Obama recover America?”
The narrative of the 2012 campaign seems clear: President Obama has done everything in his power to repair and rebuild the devastation that the prior administration did to America. The GOP — ALL of them — have done everything in their power to obstruct, defeat, and sabotage these efforts.
I can’t think of one initiative or contribution any announced or prospective GOP presidential candidate has made to the herculean rebuilding effort our nation is in the midst of. Not one.