Herman Cain’s stumbling, bumbling “response” to Politico’s report of sexual harassment allegations having been leveled against him in the 1990s has made one thing crystal clear: there is no way that Herman Cain can beat Barack Obama in the general election. No. Way. Sooner or later, the details of the allegations against Cain will come out, and indications are that they will be pretty bad – they’ll go far, far beyond what Cain has acknowledged so far (a vague comment about a woman’s height). If Cain becomes the nominee, he will be seriously damaged goods – and his not-ready-for-prime-time performance on this, the first real test of his candidacy, augurs well for future catastrophic gaffes.
And yet, Cain has claimed (and I believe him) that his fundraising is better than ever in the wake of these allegations, and a poll taken two days after the news broke shows him still comfortably in first place, 10 points ahead of Romney, in South Carolina, a key early primary state. Meanwhile, the right-wing noise machine has kicked into high gear, with Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and the rest of the usual suspects crying racism. So the GOP base is sticking with Cain, and some appear to be seeing these allegations as a positive thing for him. For them, the fact that “the media” is going after Cain with such vigor is proof that (a) the media is liberal, (b) Cain has a really good shot at winning, and (c) if Cain really does win, it will drive the media batsh!t crazy, which would be super awesome.
Meanwhile, we have learned that the GOP early primary schedule is finally set: Iowa on Jan. 3, New Hampshire on Jan. 10, South Carolina on Jan. 21, and Florida on Jan. 31. Nevada will follow on Feb. 4. Current polling (much of which was taken before the Politico story broke, but as noted above one SC poll post-dates the story) shows Cain with an excellent chance to win both Iowa and South Carolina. Romney of course is way ahead in New Hampshire, but since that is one of his several home states, a big NH win is a requirement for him, not a bonus. So, basically, what Cain needs to do is ride this thing out until Thanksgiving, which is only three weeks away. Nobody pays attention to politics between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and then the Iowa caucuses are practically upon us. If he doesn’t slip too much in the polls between now and Thanksgiving, he has a very good shot at winning both IA and SC, and thus establishing himself as the only viable GOP candidate who isn’t Mitt Romney.
As for the rest of the not-Romney GOP candidates, they remain in nowheresville. Rick Perry shows no sign of recovering from his astounding collapse in the polls, and headlines like “Perry wasn’t drunk during speech, says host” seem unlikely to light the path toward the nomination. (The speech in question was noted here by Charley.) Huntsman is still staking his campaign on the now-extinct Rockefeller Republican primary voter, Ron Paul is still Ron Paul, and Gingrich, Bachmann, and Santorum still can’t get anyone interested in buying what they’re selling.
So for GOP primary voters, it seems to be coming down to Romney or Cain. That puts the question to them in unusually stark terms: is it more important to nominate a candidate they like, or one who has a chance of winning the general election? Because, as it turns out, they cannot have both.
I don’t, even without the harassment accusations. Polls at this point show excitement that settles down when voters get serious. Same thing happened to Howard Dean. From what I understand Cain has next to no actual campaign organization in these or any states and I still say I would be shocked if he won any of them. Remember at this point in 2007 McCain was pronounced dead. Bachmann I think still has a more realistic chance of winning Iowa and winning NH isn’t nothing even if it is close to home.
I agree with you, it is Romney’s to lose. This is “you can’t beat someone with no one” on very bad drugs. Most likely to confound that is still probably Perry (recent antics notwithstanding), but I would not lay odds.
Moreover once His Expediency gets the nomination he’ll have no problem shedding his latest skin to run against Obama. I think he will make a formidable opponent.
I think I disagree with you on Cain. I’m not sure he makes it to Thanksgiving, never mind Iowa. We’ve seen how fast the GOP flavor-of-the-week flames out, and now it’s Cain’s turn. Whichever campaign leaked the sexual harassment story had a good sense of timing.
I still think that Perry has a chance — as inept as he’s been so far — because he has a lot of money and still has a chance at claiming some establishment support, unlike the likes of Cain and Bachmann. As strange as it may seem now, I think the only other realistic candidate is Newt Gingrich…mainly because he can combine establishment and anti-Romney right-wing support. I’m actually sort of surprised he hasn’t picked up more support (even acknowledging his absurdly mishandled entry into the race a few months back).
I’m fully on board with David’s general view that Romney will be the nominee. As many flaws as he has, he’s clearly their best shot against Obama. Still, it’s not completely over yet — but it certainly won’t be Cain seriously challenging Romney once we get to Iowa. It will be either Perry or Gingrich.
It won’t be Romney OR Cain.
It will be Romney AND Cain.
Cain endorsed and campaigned for Romney in 2008. They have been careful to spar rather than jab in the debates.
Romney/Cain beats Obama/Biden.
Romney/Cain isn’t that different from McCain/Palin, in the sense that Palin genuinely scared people when they started thinking seriously about her being next in line. Same thing will happen with Cain. If Romney is foolish enough to invite him on the ticket, he makes Obama’s job a lot easier.
getting ahead of ourselves, it seems like Romney would be wise to pick a southern Baptist type, with conservative bona fides but with little in the way of baggage or crazy statements. A dog whistler, not an outright teabagger.
Romney needs to neutralize “the Mormon issue” out of the gate (personally, I think that is an absurd issue, but I am far from a typical voter). The best way to do that is to run with a candidate with impeccable “traditional” religious credentials.
Too bad he’s an anti-Mormon bigot. Heh, 😉
If Romney nominates, he needs someone with impeccable conservative streed cred — Rand Paul without Rand Paul baggage. Paul Ryan comes to mind.
Romney/Rubio makes a lot more sense, shores up the base with the tea party/conservative set, he is competent and knows what he is doing unlike Palin, and he will help break off enough Hispanic votes to make a difference. Remember you just need to hit Bush 2004 numbers at 30% to make a big inroad.
A less likely course if Romney knows/data shows the GOP has just turned off Hispanics completely is a bid for the womens vote. Again no Bachman thats just Palin redux. But a Kelley Ayotte (swing state an Hispanic to boot) or the NM Governor (ditto) would be interesting picks that are still conservative.
Southern, Conservative, Veteran, Senate, Armed Service Committee (so adds the foreign policy stuff), he’s the right age. Well vetted.
Cain doesn’t have a prayer to win, nor does anyone else. Even if Perry had been better I don’t think he would have stood a chance either. Cain is a bad choice by the numbers for Romney.
African-Americans are not going to vote for Romeny/Cain just because Cain is on the ticket, and certainly not in numbers that would swing a state that was blue or a toss up. Ditto for a Latino like Rubio. So he’s not worth the risk.
from Romney’s perspective. Graham has bucked his party just enough times to make a plausible case to indies. He can do a decent job of disguising how much of a wingnut he actually is, which he’ll need to do to win the general.
Can you imagine the GOP voter apathy if you pair Romney (not a “real” Christian; formerly sucked up to gay voters) with Graham (closeted gay man)?
A lot of conservatives think he is a RINO for occasionally being reasonable on torture and SCOTUS nominees.
I think Cain doesn’t make it past NV.
Its Romney/Obama. We have known this for quite sometime. The Obama campaign certainly has. Ever since Huckabee passed and Pawlenty fizzled there has not been a credible alternative. The media has known this, they have just chosen to elevate some unserious candidates to demand attention that and consultants fleeing SS Gingrich in life rafts came upon SS Perry. Thats it folks. Serious former Governors like Romer and Johnson and increasingly Huntsman get shafted for a former regional pizza chain CEO because the media likes a contest and liked inflating him, and his empty sound bites appealed to the less discerning (aka won’t stand in the cold in Iowa for him) GOP voters.
So instead of mocking Romney with more Hidenbergs let us recognize that this is the most endangered Democratic incumbent since Jimmy Carter for reasons mostly of his own making and it is time to wake up and defend him or it will be Brown v Coakley redux. As terrible and transparently unprincipled as Romney is, he comes out of central casting for ‘generically competent Republican’ and simply needs to be a non-scary alternative to Obama to win. At this point if the economy keeps getting worse thats not hard to pull off, especially with his warchest and the way his record can be spun. Plus there are plenty of independents who think he is a closet social moderate. His endorsement of the personhood amendment and the Ohio union busting have been the only two missteps he made (doesn’t win him any more conservatives, will alienate independents). And even then running on a ‘protect choice/defend labor’ platform alone has never propelled a Democrat to high office (ask the Duke, Gore, and Kerry how relying on the Shrum strategy succeeded). I am also worried that Kool Aid drinker Plouffe, who was on paternity leave and helping Deval when the real political crises went down, has never contested a hard general election before and is assuming the same coalition of kids my age (20-25), yuppies my brothers age (25-45), progressive whites, moderate Republicans, and blacks will come out in droves to win VA, NC, CO, NM, and Florida again, when in reality post-partisanship isn’t gonna sell and a populist message geared at the rust belt states (PA, OH, MI, WI, IN) would be a much better strategy. One group is unmotivated to vote since passion fired them up, but serious concern over union busting and Wall Street crushing Main Street could light up fires in old stalwart Democratic homes across the Rust belt and Midwest. Thats where the votes are and thats the demo Obama should target with a clear and concise populist message. Not sure if he can pull of a Clinton let alone a Truman but its our last shot.
Heard that before… “Dewey defeats Truman”, Bush ’92, Romney (v Kennedy) ’04, Weld (v Kerry) ’96, Dole ’96, McCain ’08, Baker ’10… straight down to the ‘central casting’ line. Never seems to work out that way, however. I also remember a great deal of frustration over 9C cuts, gas taxes, drapes and caddilacs and the ‘betrayal of the grassroots movement that elected him’ leading many in the CommonWealth to say much the same things about Deval Patrick; “endangered” and ‘weak’ and so on… Meh plus yawn equals no surprises.
The GOP faithful either votes for a messiah or they vote against the antichrist. (for example either Scott Brown is the second coming or Elizabeth Warren is the socialist whore of babylon… that’s the way the choices are framed.) Well… We’ve already unravelled the full fabric of the Obama-as-antichrist skein and that’s why the GOP is so unwilling to ‘settle’ for anything less than the messiah: Romney might see himself in messianic terms but few others do. I think the media plays very little part in this and it’s all on the GOP: shortly the electoral math is going to force them to anoint a messiah, nor do I discount a third party run, or they have to double down on the ‘Obama is the antichrist’ meme that’s gotten them all of nowhere so far.
They have destroyed the credibility of this President he lost the election the day he lost the debt crisis, it showed America he wasn’t in charge. If economic indicators continue than he has no change. Unlike our primary the GOP is winner take all and is tailor made to Romney’s strengths as a loaded frontrunner.and no GOP frontrunner has lost in modern times save Rocky in 64′. They always turn to the next in line while we turn to the last one standing after the circular firing squad is over. Everything you said about Romney, the base, and Messiah’s could have been said in 2008 about McCain and the base and their need for a “real conservative ” after Dubya. Its Romney folks and instead of laughing at the clowns arrayed against him we should start striking now. Obama needs to can Plouffe. And bringing Carville and Begala pronto. We need to win working people the latter crowd wont come out.