Two new poll results to discuss this morning. First, WBUR/MassINC has released a new poll showing Warren ahead 46-44. When “leaners” are included (those who initially say they’re undecided, but who are willing to say which way they’re leaning), Warren’s margin increases to 49-45. This is a good result, and in line with virtually every other recent poll in this race (aside from the weird Herald poll that showed Brown up 5 – it’s seeming more and more likely that that was an outlier). But it also shows that the race is extremely close, and that it’s likely to remain so right up to election day. This excellent post by afertig explains how to win.
Second, the Globe reports that its most recent poll, which on Sunday showed Warren with a 5-point lead over Brown, also shows Richard Tisei with a 6-point lead (37-31) over John Tierney in the 6th congressional district race. That is big news in that race, since as far as I know this is the first credible result showing Tisei with a solid lead. Remarkably, the poll shows 30% of respondents still undecided. Even more remarkably, 31% of the registered Democrats in the poll are undecided. That’s obviously not a great spot for a Democratic incumbent.
The next Senate debate is tonight at 7. Bob and I will be there. Anything in particular you’d like us to do?
I have found the Globe has had a bizarre chasm of undecideds in many of its polls. To see that manifested in Tierney’s race in particular is not surprising. I will note, no disrespect to the polling institutes involved, that the Globe, Herald and Springfield Republican polls are always weird in my estimate. They have large polling windows and and high MOE. When the Masslive/WNEU poll showing Warren ahead came out, I was skeptical for those reasons. Only after two or three more polls confirmed that did I take it seriously. Still all of the newspaper polls make me take a step back and wait for something else.
I agree that the Globe’s numbers tend to run much higher than other polling operations. That’s true in the MA-Sen race too (43-38, leaving almost 20% undecided). Not sure why that is. But however you parse them, the numbers aren’t great for Tierney in this poll.
I will be in attendance as well
heading out there soon to catch the, um, much-vaunted viz before hand. But with FREE parking. 😛