Suffolk University has just announced a new poll that shows Elizabeth Warren in a very strong position – up 53-46 with virtually no undecided voters – going into the final week of this race. Today’s result, which is in line with most recent polling, makes yesterday’s Globe poll look very outlier-ish indeed.
From Suffolk’s press release:
POLL: WARREN SURGING TOWARD VICTORY OVER BROWN
… “Elizabeth Warren is riding a final wave of momentum to the U.S. Senate,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Unless something drastically changes in the final days before the election, you will be hearing the title ‘Senator-elect’ Warren instead of ‘Professor’ Warren.” …
Warren is now seen as more popular, with 51 percent indicating a favorable rating and just 36 percent viewing her unfavorably. Brown struggled to maintain a positive rating with 45 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable….
On Jan. 14, 2010, Suffolk University was the first poll using live interviewers to show Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley – by 4 points. Five days later, Brown won by 5 points on Election Day.
We can close this deal. Let’s go win.
Going to the Elizabeth Warren campaign office is still a good idea. The big portion of opponent voters still carry around so much energy (and hatred). Our Warren Room is open today until 7:00 p.m.-ish at
280 Worcester Road (Route 9 Eastbound side), Suite #106
[Tropical Isle Plaza between Walter Dye Leather Boots and Uncle Cheung’s restaurant]
Framingham, Massachusetts 01701, USA
Since this is on the front page, I’ll paste relevant stuff into this comment:
Someone’s wrong, obviously. Based on the Obama toplines, I’d say the truth is somewhere between the two polls, but closer to the Suffolk poll, since it matches the other recent surveys. Globe/UNH is the only poll in the past four weeks showing Brown anywhere near tied, let alone ahead.
But the race will be won by getting out the vote on Nov. 6. So let’s get back to work, do our thing, and stop worrying that there’s been a huge stampede to Scott Brown because of Karl Rove’s slime throwing, etc.
Brown’s favorables in this poll are 45-42 (+3), Warren 51-36 (+15). I wonder if that’s right. Brown has definitely lost some people’s approval with his negative campaign but this almost seems too good for Warren. The governor is also at 57% favorable, which I think is better than he usually polls.
One indication Brown’s negativity has backfired: on the question “Has Scott Brown’s campaign hurt his reputation?” it’s 41% yes, 46% no.
Some interesting questions in the poll:
Both candidates are right around 80-20 on the question “Are you voting more FOR this candidate or AGAINST the opponent?” ”
“Do you think there is a Republican war on women?” 39% yes, 52% no. Perhaps women in Massachusetts are insulated from the types of things women in other states have to endure. “Is Scott Brown a part of it?” 24% yes, 63% no.
Trusted to tell the truth?: 42% Warren, 34% Brown
Better represents the interests of middle class families?: 51% Warren, 36% Brown
Better represents Massachusetts?: Warren 48%, Brown 38%
More independent as Senator?: Brown 46%, Warren 41%
Better campaign?: Warren 43%, Brown 32%
Benefit to having one Dem and one Repub. representing Mass. in Senate?: Yes 50%, No 40%. Can’t say I liked that one.
Who do you expect will win?: Warren 47%, Brown 37%. Some demoralization in Scott-land?
Ballot Initiatives:
Question 1 (“right to repair”): Yes 74%, No 12% (so much for skip the question?)
Question 2 (physician-assisted suicide): Yes 47%, No 41%, Undecided 11%
Question 3 (medical marijuana): Yes 55%, No 36%, Undecided 8%
several months ago David Bernstein posted this very interesting piece on why the Globe might want to rethink having the UNH Survey Center do all its polling.
should not go to Washington.
Aside from flirting with the Herald when he and the Globe are supposed to be going steady, he’s got a sort of conflict of interest between what he says as a pollster and as a (not very insightful or accurate) pundit.
Let’s get to work is right. But finally the knot in my stomach is somewhat relieved!!
So proud of her and the campaign she ran!!! First class!! She will be a great Senator for the people!
Let’s bring it home!!!
Lowell’s premiere “Get Out The Vote” event!
We are leading in the latest poll, but we have to take it to the streets over the last weekend before the Tuesday Nov. 6th election.
Do you remember this ad, Fighter? It was filmed at Ramahlo’s West End Gym.
If you are still undecided, please come down and check it out. Decide for yourself based on what you see and hear first hand.
West End Gym
900 Lawrence Street
Lowell, MA 01852
Show up or to RSVP, link here: http://action.elizabethwarren.com/events/rsvp/content/rally-elizabeth-warren-west-end-gym-lowell?utm_source=Grassroots+DL&utm_campaign=859481c935-Campaign+Office+Opening&utm_medium=email
Friday Nov. 2nd, 5:30-700pm
West End Gym
900 Lawrence Street
Lowell, MA 01852
Ignore the polls. Stay focused. Knock on doors. Make phone calls. Hold signs. Donate five dollars. Together, we will win.