Over the past week we’ve understandably been focused on the horrific bombing on Boylston Street and its dramatic aftermath. We are, however, only eight days away from the primaries in our special election for the U.S. Senate, and I thought it might be useful to review recent developments in the race.
Some good news for Ed Markey in the last few days. On Saturday, he was endorsed by the Boston Globe. The Globe based its decision on Markey’s history of getting key legislation passed:
…Lynch [] casts Markey as a creature of Washington, beholden to its ways. It’s an understandable argument for Lynch, since many voters are frustrated with the paralysis in the capital, and looking for ways to register their disapproval.
But it’s hard to see what Ed Markey has to do with the partisanship and discord that have turned people against Congress. He’s a happy warrior, eager to join with Republicans on matters of national importance. To reject Markey simply because he knows how to get things done wouldn’t be a blow against congressional dysfunction; it would further it.
Like Markey, Lynch is also a long-serving congressman, albeit for 12 years. But he is, for better or worse, an antiestablishment figure. He doesn’t seek to be part of the congressional leadership, and tends to go his own way on major votes. Like former Senator Scott Brown, Lynch sometimes seems to believe the job of legislator is to wait until others have shown their cards — until all the hard work of drafting bills is done — and then vote thumbs up or thumbs down.
The Globe continued:
In some areas…Lynch has been a diligent House member. But he’s chosen, in this campaign, to present himself as a principled outsider taking on the ultimate company man. The alleged company man, however, has delivered more for the people of Massachusetts; the achievement gap between Markey and Lynch is vast.
As this recent post noted, the latest poll (Mass Inc.) has Markey leading Lynch 44-34, with 21 percent undecided. Although I’d be skeptical of that poll because the sample size is too small (only 270 people surveyed for the Democratic primary) and the poll’s structure a bit strange in my view, Markey nonetheless has led Lynch by double digits in every single poll since they entered the race.
The Globe further reports that Markey has far more cash on hand than any of the other candidates. Markey started with $3 million in his campaign account and has raised $4.8 million in donations since launching his campaign, for a total of $7.8 million. Through April 10 the Markey campaign had spent $3.2 million, leaving $4.6 million
Lynch started out with $745,000 and has raised $1.5 million. He has spent just over $1.7 million, leaving him with $514,000 as of April 10. That’s only 1/9 of what Markey had available.
Approximate fundraising positions of the three Republican candidates (the Globe endorsed Winslow, though I imagine many GOP primary voters won’t see that as a good thing):
- Gomez: $1.2 million raised (half from his own funds), $500K left as of April 10.
- Winslow: $395K raised ($158,550 from his own funds), $142K left.
- Sullivan: $175K raised, $96K left.
Gomez’s personal money and hedge fund connections are reflected in these numbers. Sullivan, in particular, has been at a real financial disadvantage. Though I take the Mass Inc. poll with a grain of salt (GOP sample size of only 128), Gomez’s 10-to-1 fundraising advantage may explain, in part, why he does so much better in that poll than in earlier ones.
Markey and Lynch also debated tonight (more on that later) and will debate again tomorrow, in the obligatory Western Mass. debate, which was originally scheduled for Patriots Day but postponed in light of the bomb attack.
That this special election is going to be a low turnout race decided by low information voters. I honestly wish we could have a law that would place it with a regular election, unfortunately the legislatures track record with altering the process has not been particularly stellar, and as fenway, sabutai, and others have pointed out we got stuck with a ‘silent Mo’ for a Senator for a longer period of time.
The media has also done a bad job publicizing this race, the debates, and the candidates. Lastly, gotta feel bad for Dan Winslow, a 3rd place run is not a good sign.
got the Globe’s endorsement, which I should have mentioned. Unfortunately for him that may be the kiss of death in a GOP primary.
They always endorse the most moderate Republican in the primary and then knife him by backing a Dem in the general, with the exception of Weld who they gushed over when he was Governor.
It may have helped McCain the second time around in New Hampshire, now that the Union Leader is a Murdoch rag it has lost some of it’s cache.
be a low turnout race decided by high information voters. We can quibble about what constitutes a low information voter, but honestly, I don’t think the low-information voters–the ideologically uninformed, usually unenrolled voters–are going to vote. We ideologically informed, super voters are going to hold more sway. The primary isn’t going to be like the general election.
I don’t get newspapers endorsing two candidates. The Globe can’t decide between Winslow and Markey? Unenrolled voters have to choose a candidate and party. A voter can only vote for one candidate. Why can’t the Globe just choose one?
There are two primaries. Some people will vote in Dem primary, others in the GOP. I’m sure the Globe feels all need their guiding hand.
Agree with you that the high-information voters will have more sway in this lower-turnout affair than in a general election such as 2012. But not sure how many there are, so most voters in the primary might still be fairly low-information.
It kind of depends on what you mean by low-information. I’m not a fan of the term. Does it mean a voter is ignorant and persuaded by advertistements? Does it mean he isn’t guided by a particular ideology and votes for the guy who looks best or is most like him? Low-information is part of a binary with high-information. There are more dimensions and shades of information.
I know I’m voting for Markey because he’s ideologically closest to me. I know this from some of his votes, but mostly from the people who are supporting him whom I trust. I know more about Lynch, which I disagree with. I can tell you some of Lynch’s votes, but none of Markey’s. Am I a low-information voter? I’d say I’m a sophisticated voter, but how much information does that sophistication depend on?
There’s a spectrum, but I don’t think you have to know all of Markey’s votes to have an idea of what he’s about. In part because there are people whose judgment you trust who have already done that work. In part because you’re on sites like this one following the campaign.
It’s true that “low-information” could mean all sorts of things. To me it means people who might actually fall for Lynch’s attempt to portray Markey as the more radical anti-abortion candidate based on things that happened when Carter was President, except that they’re not paying enough attention to know that Lynch is attempting such a thing.
who lives in Lynch’s district, I am so deeply offended by Lynch’s ACA vote that I will vote for Markey to demonstrate my great displeasure with Lynch. Fortunately, I have found enough similarity with Markey that I am comfortable with that support.
There are at least three out there and have run fairly regularly, though not this most recent week due to the suspension of campaigning.
I watch way too much TV, including the dinosaur networks. Oh Well.
for Markey? Two weeks ago, I’d see three ads on the local news before 6 AM. I did receive a phone call from the campaign last night. They had already identified me as a Markey supporter, but were just checking back I guess.
They asked if I’d volunteer. I said I’d do so through the MTA.
and unfortunately, there is a Markey campaign office on Blue Hill Ave, but every single time I have driven by it, it is closed.
If you look at the GerryMandered map of Lynch’s congressional district, there is bottleneck in Dorchester that is the narrowest part of his district. It is Ward 16, Precint 2, and it is about a mile East to West. That is where I live and vote. In fact, the line dividing Lynch from Capuano is exactly 15 feet from my front door, the Yellow Line down the middle of Adams Street.
is all about lawn signs and is known to most people in the district. Markey’s campaign skipped the lawn signs and hired staff to crunch numbers and GOTV. Don’t know what’s up with the office being closed. The one near me in Newton is generally staffed.
We need someone to take on Lynchie after this business is over.
But I have run for Boston City Council twice and lost both times, so I would like to try something more local first, if I ever run again.