After looking at recent polling data, fundraising data and some fundamentals — including the higher unpredictability of a special election, Nate Silver concludes that Gomez’s chances for an upset are “slim.”
Although some news accounts had been describing the race as a tossup until recently, Mr. Gomez’s odds of prevailing are remote — probably no more than 10 percent even under optimistic assumptions for his campaign.
And that 10% is largely because this is a special election; in a regular election, the odds would be around 5%, he said. Just another example of why GOTV is so important in this one, even moreso than a general election.
Fundamentals alone “would now project Mr. Markey to win the contest by roughly 12 percentage points,” Silver writes. That same model “would have seen the 2010 race as a tossup by this point in the campaign on the basis of Mr. Brown’s superior fund-raising totals and the national political environment.”
You can read Silver’s full post here.